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Islanders at Senators
NHL

New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
New York Islanders
▸5
Ottawa Senators
4
FinalTV MSG, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Ottawa Senators 5-4. The Islanders came back from two goals down. The Senators led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Anders Lee's goal at 18:57 of the third period, which took the Islanders' chances from 48% to 97%. Expected goals were close — NYI 3.2, OTT 3.0; shots on goal were NYI 23, OTT 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Ilya Sorokin stopped 28 of 32 (.875), 1.0 goals below expected; Linus Ullmark stopped 18 of 23 (.783), 2.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Anders Lee (2 G, 1 A), 2. Tim Stützle (1 G, 1 A), 3. Bo Horvat (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    A. Lee2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    OTT
    T. Stützle1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    B. Horvat1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYINYI0531127523
OTTOTT11131605432

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    D. Perron(2)PPG
    T. Chabot (2), A. Kaliyev (1)
    snapxG 0.09win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-1
    17:01

2nd period

  1. OTT
    S. Pinto(7)
    D. Batherson (2), T. Chabot (3)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +15 ptsVideo
    0-2
    5:32
  2. NYI
    E. Heineman(2)
    J. Drouin (3), S. Mayfield (2)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-2
    6:50
  3. NYI
    B. Horvat(4)
    R. Pulock (2), A. Lee (1)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +18 ptsVideo
    2-2
    9:57
  4. OTT
    T. Stützle(2)
    N. Jensen (1), D. Batherson (3)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +21 ptsVideo
    2-3
    16:46
  5. NYI
    A. Lee(1)
    M. Shabanov (1), M. Schaefer (4)
    deflectedxG 0.27win prob +21 ptsVideo
    3-3
    17:45
  6. OTT
    D. Cozens(3)
    T. Stützle (2)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +22 ptsVideo
    3-4
    18:47

3rd period

  1. NYI
    K. Palmieri(2)
    M. Barzal (3), A. Pelech (1)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +27 ptsVideo
    4-4
    6:00
  2. NYI
    A. Lee(2)
    J. Pageau (2)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +49 ptsVideo
    5-4
    18:57

Penalties

NYI 4 PIM·OTT 6 PIM

1st

  • 15:04NYIEmil Heineman · Holdingdrawn by Claude Giroux2 min
  • 17:58OTTNick Cousins · High stickingdrawn by Scott Mayfield2 min
  • 18:29OTTArtem Zub · Hookingdrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min

2nd

  • 12:41NYIserved by C. Cizikas · Delaying game bench2 min

3rd

  • 1:59OTTFabian Zetterlund · Trippingdrawn by Tony DeAngelo2 min
  • 2:23NYIMatthew Schaefer · Ps tripping on breakawaydrawn by Shane Pinto0 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalNYI goalFinal: OTT 0%

Biggest swing: Anders Lee, 3rd 18:57 — NYI 48% → 97%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Greig · On goal · xG 0.30S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.24T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.23M. Amadio · On goal · xG 0.14L. Eller · On goal · xG 0.14M. Amadio · On goal · xG 0.13T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.12T. Stützle · Goal · xG 0.11J. Spence · On goal · xG 0.10M. Amadio · Missed · xG 0.10S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.09D. Perron · Goal · xG 0.09A. Kaliyev · On goal · xG 0.09D. Cozens · Goal · xG 0.09R. Greig · On goal · xG 0.07S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.07A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.07D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.07D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.06A. Kaliyev · On goal · xG 0.06L. Eller · On goal · xG 0.06D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.05S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.05S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.05A. Kaliyev · On goal · xG 0.04R. Greig · On goal · xG 0.04D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.04N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.04J. Sanderson · Missed · xG 0.04S. Pinto · Goal · xG 0.03S. Pinto · Missed · xG 0.03M. Amadio · Missed · xG 0.03A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.03F. Zetterlund · On goal · xG 0.02S. Pinto · Missed · xG 0.02L. Eller · On goal · xG 0.02A. Zub · Missed · xG 0.02T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.02N. Jensen · Missed · xG 0.01A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.01T. Kleven · On goal · xG 0.01L. Eller · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT4 G · 3.0 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsOTT
3.25 G
All situations
4 G3.0
2.65 G
Even strength
3 G2.2
0.30 G
Power play
1 G0.8
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI52%48%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.03 – 2.94

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsOTT
23
Shots on goal
32
48%
Faceoffs
52%
0/3
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
28
Hits
29
19
Blocked shots
9
13
Giveaways
22
2
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
48M. SchaeferD011020.08020—22:33
24S. MayfieldD011020.09140—20:32
3A. PelechD011+200.02010—20:12
14B. HorvatC101+220.461004719:57
21K. PalmieriC101+120.26210018:59
6R. PulockD011+110.09050—18:48
77T. DeAngeloD000+100.00210—18:47
13M. BarzalC011+100.112004218:30
29J. DrouinL011+220.38000—16:37
11A. DuclairL000010.06000—15:22
34A. BoqvistD000000.00010—15:10
27A. LeeL213+240.52200—13:25
51E. HeinemanL101+120.37702—13:24
44J. PageauC011030.531006913:22
10S. HolmstromR000-110.03030—13:11
49M. ShabanovR011000.16400—12:43
32K. MacLeanC000-110.022005012:42
53C. CizikasC000-100.004103311:49
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30I. Sorokin(W)32284.8753.04-0.9660:00

Season series

OTT leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).