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Stars at Avalanche
NHL

Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
▸2
Colorado Avalanche
1
Final/OTTV ESPN, Victory+·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Colorado Avalanche 2-1 in overtime, Tyler Seguin scoring at 5:31. The Avalanche scored first; the Stars answered. The Avalanche led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tyler Seguin's goal at 5:31 of overtime, which took the Stars' chances from 48% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.5 to 2.2; shots on goal were DAL 28, COL 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 70% of the time. Jake Oettinger stopped 27 of 28 (.964), 2.5 goals saved above expected; Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 26 of 28 (.929). Three stars: 1. Tyler Seguin (1 G), 2. Jake Oettinger (27 saves, .964), 3. Jamie Benn (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    T. Seguin1 G
  2. ★★
    DAL
    J. Oettinger27 saves, .964
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    J. Benn1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
DALDAL014041713228
COLCOL150801203128

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    V. Nichushkin(1)
    S. Girard (2), S. Malinski (1)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-1
    8:09

3rd period

  1. DAL
    J. Benn(1)PPG
    T. Harley (2), M. Granlund (1)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +24 ptsVideo
    1-1
    9:18

Overtime

  1. DAL
    T. Seguin(2)
    M. Marchment (2), M. Rantanen (1)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +52 ptsVideo
    2-1
    5:31

Penalties

DAL 12 PIM·COL 6 PIM

1st

  • 6:28COLRyan Lindgren · Cross checkingdrawn by Wyatt Johnston2 min
  • 6:45DALMikko Rantanen · Trippingdrawn by Valeri Nichushkin2 min
  • 17:43DALColin Blackwell · Trippingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min

2nd

  • 1:49DALserved by M. Marchment · Too many men on the ice2 min

3rd

  • 6:48COLArtturi Lehkonen · Holdingdrawn by Thomas Harley2 min
  • 9:08COLNathan MacKinnon · Interferencedrawn by Colin Blackwell2 min
  • 10:11DALMatt Duchene · Trippingdrawn by Valeri Nichushkin2 min
  • 19:20DALMason Marchment · High sticking double minordrawn by Brock Nelson4 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalDAL goalFinal: COL 0%

Biggest swing: Tyler Seguin, OT 5:31 — DAL 48% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.40B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.29J. Drouin · Missed · xG 0.19B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.18A. Lehkonen · Missed · xG 0.17V. Nichushkin · Goal · xG 0.15N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.15J. Drury · Missed · xG 0.14N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.14V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.13J. Drouin · Missed · xG 0.12L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.12B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.10N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.10C. Coyle · Missed · xG 0.09M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.09N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.08V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.08J. Drury · On goal · xG 0.07N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.07M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.06J. Kiviranta · Missed · xG 0.06L. O'Connor · Missed · xG 0.05J. Drouin · On goal · xG 0.04N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.04C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.04C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.03C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.03J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.03M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.02C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.02S. Malinski · Missed · xG 0.02S. Malinski · Missed · xG 0.02J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.02D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.02C. Coyle · Missed · xG 0.01C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.01N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.01S. Malinski · Missed · xG 0.01C. Coyle · On goal · xG 0.01C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.01J. Drury · On goal · xG 0.01R. Lindgren · Missed · xG 0.01C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.00N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.00
COL1 G · 3.5 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsCOL
2.22 G
All situations
1 G3.5
1.51 G
Even strength
1 G2.4
0.51 G
Power play
0 G1.1
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL30%70%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.20 – 3.35

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsCOL
28
Shots on goal
28
47%
Faceoffs
53%
1/3
Power play
0/6
12
Penalty minutes
6
34
Hits
46
21
Blocked shots
18
12
Giveaways
15
3
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55T. HarleyD011000.01120—29:47
23E. LindellD000+120.01030—27:19
44C. CeciD000020.01210—24:08
46I. LyubushkinD000-120.03410—23:10
53W. JohnstonC000000.002205020:11
64M. GranlundC011020.29100019:53
24R. HintzC000050.581004619:19
96M. RantanenR011050.6813210019:16
95M. DucheneC000010.092025016:10
27M. MarchmentL011+120.02414—15:27
14J. BennL101010.114301315:20
91T. SeguinC101010.090005014:01
63E. DadonovL000010.03300—13:41
28A. PetrovicD000010.03130—13:02
18S. SteelC000000.002106912:39
15C. BlackwellC000010.101023311:47
6L. BichselD000020.06510—11:12
10O. BäckC000000.10000009:13
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29J. Oettinger(W)28271.9643.50+2.5065:31

Series

DAL leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).