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Avalanche at Stars
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
3
Dallas Stars
▸4
Final/OTTV ESPN, Victory+·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Colorado Avalanche 4-3 in overtime, Colin Blackwell scoring at 17:46. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Avalanche led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Colin Blackwell's goal at 17:46 of overtime, which took the Stars' chances from 52% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 4.1 to 2.4; shots on goal were COL 37, DAL 39. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 76% of the time. Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 35 of 39 (.897); Jake Oettinger stopped 34 of 37 (.919), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Colin Blackwell (1 G), 2. Thomas Harley (1 G), 3. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    C. Blackwell1 G
  2. ★★
    DAL
    T. Harley1 G
  3. ★★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
COLCOL1102110808337
DALDAL1911211018439

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(3)PPG
    C. Makar (2), J. Drouin (2)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +9 ptsVideo
    1-0
    8:48
  2. DAL
    T. Seguin(1)PPG
    M. Marchment (1), J. Benn (1)
    slapxG 0.13win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-1
    19:06

2nd period

  1. DAL
    T. Harley(1)
    S. Steel (1), O. Bäck (1)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-2
    3:40
  2. COL
    J. Drury(1)
    L. O'Connor (3), R. Lindgren (2)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-2
    4:42
  3. COL
    L. O'Connor(1)
    A. Lehkonen (1), S. Girard (1)
    backhandxG 0.08win prob +24 ptsVideo
    3-2
    19:27

3rd period

  1. DAL
    E. Dadonov(1)
    W. Johnston (2)
    snapxG 0.35win prob +33 ptsVideo
    3-3
    10:13

Overtime

  1. DAL
    C. Blackwell(1)
    S. Steel (2), C. Ceci (1)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +48 ptsVideo
    3-4
    17:46

Penalties

COL 8 PIM·DAL 6 PIM

1st

  • 8:19DALMason Marchment · Trippingdrawn by Miles Wood2 min
  • 17:33COLParker Kelly · Holdingdrawn by Roope Hintz2 min

2nd

  • 6:09DALMikael Granlund · Trippingdrawn by Devon Toews2 min
  • 10:18COLJoel Kiviranta · Interferencedrawn by Mason Marchment2 min
  • 15:12COLJosh Manson · Interferencedrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min
  • 17:05COLLogan O'Connor · Trippingdrawn by Mikael Granlund2 min

3rd

  • 18:34DALMikko Rantanen · Hookingdrawn by Josh Manson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalCOL goalFinal: DAL 100%

Biggest swing: Colin Blackwell, OT 17:46 — DAL 52% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
E. Dadonov · Goal · xG 0.35T. Seguin · Missed · xG 0.25M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.19M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.18W. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.17C. Blackwell · On goal · xG 0.15R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.14M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.13C. Blackwell · Goal · xG 0.13T. Seguin · Goal · xG 0.13M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.12J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.11J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.11J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.10J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.10S. Steel · Missed · xG 0.10R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.10W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.10J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.09T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.09J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.08M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.07M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.07O. Bäck · On goal · xG 0.07R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.06M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.06W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.06J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.06M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.05T. Harley · Goal · xG 0.05J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.05T. Harley · Missed · xG 0.05M. Marchment · Missed · xG 0.05M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.04E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.04M. Marchment · Missed · xG 0.04C. Blackwell · On goal · xG 0.03S. Steel · Missed · xG 0.03A. Petrovic · On goal · xG 0.03R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.03I. Lyubushkin · On goal · xG 0.02I. Lyubushkin · On goal · xG 0.02C. Ceci · Missed · xG 0.02T. Harley · Missed · xG 0.02W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.01E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.01A. Petrovic · Missed · xG 0.01I. Lyubushkin · Missed · xG 0.01M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.01I. Lyubushkin · On goal · xG 0.01I. Lyubushkin · On goal · xG 0.01L. Bichsel · Missed · xG 0.01C. Ceci · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.01W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.01C. Blackwell · On goal · xG 0.00W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.00C. Blackwell · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL4 G · 4.1 xG · 60 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsDAL
2.43 G
All situations
4 G4.1
1.62 G
Even strength
3 G3.2
0.61 G
Power play
1 G0.9
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 113 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL24%76%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.36 – 4.02

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsDAL
37
Shots on goal
39
54%
Faceoffs
46%
1/3
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
6
45
Hits
45
18
Blocked shots
19
17
Giveaways
15
11
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
7D. ToewsD000+100.03070—33:52
8C. MakarD011060.17210—30:53
55R. LindgrenD011+220.11120—25:47
13V. NichushkinR000040.25220—25:30
29N. MacKinnonC101+140.263005924:53
88M. NecasC000030.22100024:28
42J. MansonD000-220.01402—23:56
62A. LehkonenL011+140.50200—22:43
27J. DrouinL011-120.0100010022:07
49S. GirardD011-200.00110—21:03
11B. NelsonC000010.243204419:11
25L. O'ConnorR112+210.08202—17:44
18J. DruryC101+120.241102016:22
10C. CoyleC000-300.006007316:19
6E. JohnsonD000-130.07220—15:38
17P. KellyC000+110.16402014:59
94J. KivirantaL000-210.01402—13:31
28M. WoodL000-310.00700—12:42
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39M. Blackwood(L)39354.8974.10+0.1077:25

Series

DAL leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).