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Flyers at Sabres
NHL

Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Philadelphia Flyers
4
Buffalo Sabres
▸5
FinalTV NBCSP, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Philadelphia Flyers 5-4. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Peyton Krebs's goal at 13:49 of the first period, which took the Sabres' chances from 63% to 79%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.9 to 2.4; shots on goal were PHI 24, BUF 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Aleksei Kolosov stopped 26 of 30 (.867), 1.1 goals below expected; James Reimer stopped 20 of 24 (.833), 1.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Alex Tuch (1 G, 1 A), 2. Ryan McLeod (1 G, 2 A), 3. Jack Quinn (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    A. Tuch1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    R. McLeod1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    J. Quinn1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
PHIPHI1511029424
BUFBUF31311018531

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    A. Tuch(36)
    J. Zucker (32), J. Bernard-Docker (6)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    4:35
  2. BUF
    P. Krebs(10)SHG
    A. Tuch (31), C. Clifton (15)
    backhandxG 0.20win prob +16 pts
    0-2
    13:49
  3. PHI
    M. Michkov(25)PPG
    T. Foerster (18), S. Couturier (29)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-2
    15:09
  4. BUF
    J. Quinn(15)
    R. McLeod (32), J. Peterka (41)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    16:11

2nd period

  1. BUF
    J. Peterka(27)
    R. McLeod (33), J. Quinn (24)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +9 ptsVideo
    1-4
    1:24
  2. PHI
    M. Michkov(26)
    S. Couturier (30), T. Konecny (52)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +9 ptsVideo
    2-4
    7:11

3rd period

  1. PHI
    T. Foerster(25)
    N. Cates (21), B. Brink (29)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +15 ptsVideo
    3-4
    0:15
  2. BUF
    R. McLeod(20)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.95win prob +2 pts
    3-5
    19:12
  3. PHI
    B. Brink(12)
    M. Michkov (37), R. Poehling (19)
    slapxG 0.07win prob +1 ptsVideo
    4-5
    19:41

Penalties

PHI 2 PIM·BUF 4 PIM

1st

  • 13:36BUFJacob Bernard-Docker · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

2nd

  • 5:04PHITravis Konecny · Slashingdrawn by JJ Peterka2 min

3rd

  • 17:01BUFAlex Tuch · Trippingdrawn by Matvei Michkov2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalPHI goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Peyton Krebs, 1st 13:49 — BUF 63% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. McLeod · Goal · xG 0.95J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.30R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.25P. Krebs · Goal · xG 0.20J. Quinn · Goal · xG 0.15P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.14J. Peterka · Goal · xG 0.13J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.13J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.12R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.12J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.10A. Tuch · Goal · xG 0.09P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.09P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.08N. Ostlund · On goal · xG 0.08J. Kulich · Missed · xG 0.08I. Rosen · On goal · xG 0.07R. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.07R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.07T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.07R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.06J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.05J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.04J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.04S. Lafferty · On goal · xG 0.04R. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.04R. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.03J. Bernard-Docker · On goal · xG 0.03J. Kulich · Missed · xG 0.03J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.03J. Bryson · On goal · xG 0.03N. Ostlund · On goal · xG 0.02P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.02T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.02J. Bernard-Docker · On goal · xG 0.02J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.02B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.01J. Bernard-Docker · On goal · xG 0.01T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.01A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.01J. Bernard-Docker · On goal · xG 0.01J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.01A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.01C. Clifton · On goal · xG 0.01R. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.00J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.00
BUF5 G · 3.9 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

PHIvsBUF
2.44 G
All situations
4 G3.9
1.93 G
Even strength
3 G2.6
0.31 G
Power play
0 G0.0
0.10 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
PHI40%60%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.36 – 2.90

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

PHIvsBUF
24
Shots on goal
31
49%
Faceoffs
51%
1/2
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
10
Hits
14
17
Blocked shots
14
11
Giveaways
12
10
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Philadelphia Flyers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
6T. SanheimD000+230.15000—21:20
14S. CouturierC022010.270106321:04
39M. MichkovR213-160.71000—20:43
9J. DrysdaleD000-300.00020—20:30
11T. KonecnyR011-110.09002—20:15
24N. SeelerD000+200.01020—19:49
8C. YorkD000-210.05030—19:23
71T. FoersterR112020.18000—18:27
5E. ZamulaD000-110.01030—17:00
10B. BrinkR112+120.10000—16:45
25R. PoehlingC011-100.311203815:46
36E. AndraeD000-120.11000—15:33
27N. CatesL011+110.011005015:08
74O. TippettR000-230.3511010013:14
12D. KaplanR000-100.00100—12:12
22J. PelletierL000-100.00010—10:58
44N. DeslauriersL000-110.03000—10:39
19G. HathawayR000-100.00620—10:25
Philadelphia Flyers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35A. Kolosov(L)30264.8672.95-1.0558:49

Season series

PHI leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).