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Sabres at Flyers
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Philadelphia Flyers

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
4
Philadelphia Flyers
▸7
FinalTV NHLN, NBCSP·Wells Fargo Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Philadelphia Flyers beat the Buffalo Sabres 7-4. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Flyers led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Noah Cates's goal at 14:11 of the second period, which took the Flyers' chances from 53% to 73%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.0 to 2.5; shots on goal were BUF 21, PHI 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 25 of 32 (.781), 4.5 goals below expected; Samuel Ersson stopped 17 of 21 (.810), 1.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Matvei Michkov (2 G), 2. Tyson Foerster (1 G, 1 A), 3. Jack Quinn (2 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    PHI
    M. Michkov2 G
  2. ★★
    PHI
    T. Foerster1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    J. Quinn2 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF162718421
PHIPHI21228312732

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. PHI
    M. Michkov(23)
    T. Konecny (46), E. Zamula (12)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    5:27
  2. PHI
    J. Pelletier(5)
    O. Tippett (19), R. Poehling (14)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    5:56
  3. BUF
    J. Quinn(12)
    J. Peterka (34), R. McLeod (27)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-2
    10:57

2nd period

  1. BUF
    J. Peterka(23)
    J. Quinn (18), P. Krebs (15)
    snapxG 0.31win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-2
    1:41
  2. BUF
    J. Quinn(13)PPG
    R. McLeod (28), O. Power (31)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +18 ptsVideo
    3-2
    8:13
  3. PHI
    M. Michkov(24)
    T. Konecny (47)
    backhandxG 0.05win prob +19 ptsVideo
    3-3
    10:36
  4. PHI
    N. Cates(15)
    T. Foerster (17), B. Brink (24)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +20 ptsVideo
    3-4
    14:11

3rd period

  1. PHI
    R. Poehling(9)PPG
    O. Tippett (20), O. Lycksell (5)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +13 ptsVideo
    3-5
    6:39
  2. PHI
    T. Foerster(18)
    B. Brink (25), N. Cates (16)
    slapxG 0.05win prob +3 ptsVideo
    3-6
    10:13
  3. BUF
    A. Tuch(29)SHG
    R. McLeod (29)
    snapxG 0.24win prob +1 ptsVideo
    4-6
    15:05
  4. PHI
    R. Poehling(10)PPG
    N. Cates (17)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +1 ptsVideo
    4-7
    15:34

Penalties

BUF 6 PIM·PHI 4 PIM

1st

  • 12:11BUFJiri Kulich · Slashingdrawn by Egor Zamula2 min
  • 13:09PHITyson Foerster · Boardingdrawn by Bowen Byram2 min

2nd

  • 6:18PHIRodrigo Abols · Hookingdrawn by Tyson Kozak2 min

3rd

  • 4:53BUFPeyton Krebs · Trippingdrawn by Jamie Drysdale2 min
  • 14:23BUFZach Benson · High stickingdrawn by Travis Sanheim2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PHI goalBUF goalFinal: PHI 100%

Biggest swing: Noah Cates, 2nd 14:11 — PHI 53% → 73%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Poehling · Missed · xG 0.28R. Poehling · On goal · xG 0.20N. Deslauriers · Missed · xG 0.17T. Foerster · Missed · xG 0.13R. Poehling · Goal · xG 0.12R. Poehling · Goal · xG 0.11T. Foerster · Missed · xG 0.11J. Pelletier · Goal · xG 0.10N. Cates · Goal · xG 0.10J. Drysdale · On goal · xG 0.08N. Deslauriers · On goal · xG 0.07T. Foerster · Missed · xG 0.06M. Michkov · On goal · xG 0.06M. Michkov · Goal · xG 0.06O. Lycksell · Missed · xG 0.06M. Michkov · Goal · xG 0.05S. Couturier · On goal · xG 0.05T. Foerster · Goal · xG 0.05S. Couturier · On goal · xG 0.05T. Sanheim · On goal · xG 0.05O. Tippett · On goal · xG 0.05O. Tippett · On goal · xG 0.05R. Abols · On goal · xG 0.04M. Michkov · On goal · xG 0.03C. York · On goal · xG 0.03B. Brink · On goal · xG 0.03R. Poehling · On goal · xG 0.03C. York · Missed · xG 0.03T. Sanheim · On goal · xG 0.03M. Michkov · On goal · xG 0.02M. Michkov · Missed · xG 0.02E. Andrae · Missed · xG 0.02E. Andrae · Missed · xG 0.02N. Seeler · On goal · xG 0.02T. Sanheim · On goal · xG 0.01B. Brink · On goal · xG 0.01J. Drysdale · Missed · xG 0.01N. Deslauriers · On goal · xG 0.01T. Konecny · On goal · xG 0.01E. Zamula · Missed · xG 0.01T. Konecny · On goal · xG 0.01E. Andrae · On goal · xG 0.01T. Foerster · On goal · xG 0.01T. Sanheim · Missed · xG 0.00S. Couturier · On goal · xG 0.00N. Seeler · Missed · xG 0.00
PHI7 G · 2.5 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsPHI
3.04 G
All situations
7 G2.5
2.12 G
Even strength
5 G2.2
0.41 G
Power play
2 G0.3
0.41 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF61%39%PHI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.97 – 2.39

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsPHI
21
Shots on goal
32
45%
Faceoffs
55%
1/2
Power play
2/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
12
Hits
15
11
Blocked shots
15
15
Giveaways
20
6
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4B. ByramD000+100.00020—22:10
75C. CliftonD000+120.06310—21:35
23M. SamuelssonD000-200.00100—20:12
25O. PowerD011-230.10000—19:00
77J. PeterkaR112+110.70000—18:56
71R. McLeodC033+120.190304518:23
78J. BrysonD000-200.00010—18:10
89A. TuchR101020.4511010018:05
72T. ThompsonC000-320.20000017:33
22J. QuinnR213+120.34100—16:56
24J. Bernard-DockerD000000.00020—16:14
19P. KrebsC011010.101025814:35
20J.KulichC000-310.121125014:04
9Z. BensonL000-210.08002—14:03
17J. ZuckerL000-110.1400010014:03
63I. RosenR000-120.08000—11:07
48T. KozakC000000.272001310:36
29B. MalenstynL000010.1520010009:21
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1U. Luukkonen(L)32257.7812.45-4.5560:00

Season series

PHI leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).