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Maple Leafs at Sabres
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
Buffalo Sabres
0
FinalTV MSG-B, TSN4·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-0. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Steven Lorentz's goal at 14:15 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 47% to 68%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 4.1 to 3.7; shots on goal were TOR 32, BUF 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Anthony Stolarz stopped 35 of 35 (1.000), 3.7 goals saved above expected; Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 28 of 31 (.903). Three stars: 1. Anthony Stolarz (35 saves, 1.000), 2. Mitch Marner (1 G), 3. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (28 saves, .903).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    A. Stolarz35 saves, 1.000
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Marner1 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    U. Luukkonen28 saves, .903

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR08111313432
BUFBUF01309013035

Scoring

4 goals

2nd period

  1. TOR
    S. Lorentz(8)
    S. Laughton (18), C. Jarnkrok (5)
    slapxG 0.07win prob +21 ptsVideo
    1-0
    14:15

3rd period

  1. TOR
    M. Marner(27)
    A. Matthews (45), M. Knies (27)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +11 ptsVideo
    2-0
    15:39
  2. TOR
    A. Matthews(32)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.86Video
    3-0
    18:08
  3. TOR
    N. Robertson(15)
    P. Holmberg (11), B. McMann (14)
    backhandxG 0.29Video
    4-0
    18:43

Penalties

TOR 4 PIM·BUF 4 PIM

1st

  • 15:57TORNick Robertson · High stickingdrawn by Jacob Bernard-Docker2 min
  • 17:32BUFJack Quinn · Holdingdrawn by Matthew Knies2 min

2nd

  • 2:23BUFJack Quinn · Hookingdrawn by Bobby McMann2 min

3rd

  • 3:49TORWilliam Nylander · High stickingdrawn by Peyton Krebs2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalTOR goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Steven Lorentz, 2nd 14:15 — TOR 47% → 68%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.29J. Kulich · Missed · xG 0.19Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.19J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.17J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.16B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.15R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.15J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.13A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.11R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.11J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.11S. Lafferty · Missed · xG 0.10S. Lafferty · Missed · xG 0.10J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.10J. Kulich · Missed · xG 0.09R. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.09J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.08J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.08A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.08S. Lafferty · Missed · xG 0.08P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.08T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.08A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.08N. Ostlund · On goal · xG 0.08R. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.08A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.07J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.07J. Kulich · On goal · xG 0.07T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.06T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.06J. Bernard-Docker · On goal · xG 0.05J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.05J. Kulich · On goal · xG 0.04J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.04T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.04J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.04J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.03J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.03M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.03J. Kulich · On goal · xG 0.02C. Clifton · Missed · xG 0.02R. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.02I. Rosen · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01S. Lafferty · Missed · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Bryson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Bernard-Docker · On goal · xG 0.00J. Kulich · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF0 G · 3.7 xG · 50 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsBUF
4.13 G
All situations
0 G3.7
2.93 G
Even strength
0 G2.5
0.40 G
Power play
0 G1.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 99 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR44%56%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.27 – 3.65

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsBUF
32
Shots on goal
35
51%
Faceoffs
49%
0/2
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
17
Hits
13
19
Blocked shots
12
20
Giveaways
18
8
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD000+220.01040—21:51
8C. TanevD000+200.00000—20:28
16M. MarnerR101+210.28010—19:56
2S. BenoitD000+200.00250—19:56
25B. CarloD000+100.01000—19:53
34A. MatthewsC112+261.701104519:37
23M. KniesL011+120.09100—19:23
88W. NylanderR000030.200026718:22
91J. TavaresC000020.241105618:21
51P. MyersD000+110.02130—17:03
11M. DomiC000000.2000010015:14
24S. LaughtonC011+210.193306214:34
36D. MermisD000020.08000—14:12
19C. JarnkrokC011+100.00010012:27
18S. LorentzC101+120.19300012:21
74B. McMannC011+150.26300011:04
29P. HolmbergR011+120.072002210:40
89N. RobertsonL101+130.6000210010:38
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41A. Stolarz(W)353501.0003.74+3.7460:00

Season series

TOR leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).