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Sabres at Maple Leafs
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
3
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
FinalTV MSG-B, TSN4·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-3. The Maple Leafs came back from two goals down. The Maple Leafs led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was John Tavares's goal at 13:51 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 53% to 73%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 5.3 to 2.0; shots on goal were BUF 27, TOR 41. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 86% of the time. Devon Levi stopped 36 of 40 (.900), 0.8 goals saved above expected; Dennis Hildeby stopped 24 of 27 (.889), 1.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. John Tavares (3 G), 2. Nick Robertson (1 G, 1 A), 3. Max Domi (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    J. Tavares3 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    N. Robertson1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    M. Domi1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF2111907327
TORTOR18314119541

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    J. Quinn(2)PPG
    J. Peterka (11), B. Byram (14)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +9 ptsVideo
    1-0
    1:03
  2. BUF
    A. Tuch(9)
    Z. Benson (6), T. Thompson (9)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-0
    2:46
  3. TOR
    M. Domi(1)
    N. Robertson (1), B. McMann (2)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-1
    15:45

2nd period

  1. BUF
    J. Quinn(3)
    J. Peterka (12), M. Samuelsson (1)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-1
    9:11
  2. TOR
    N. Robertson(3)
    B. McMann (3), M. Domi (7)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-2
    11:20
  3. TOR
    J. Tavares(13)PPG
    A. Matthews (11), W. Nylander (13)
    tip-inxG 0.21win prob +15 ptsVideo
    3-3
    12:41
  4. TOR
    J. Tavares(14)
    C. Tanev (8), O. Ekman-Larsson (10)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +20 ptsVideo
    3-4
    13:51

3rd period

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(15)EN
    M. Knies (7), M. Marner (31)
    wristxG 0.50win prob +6 ptsVideo
    3-5
    17:48

Penalties

BUF 18 PIM·TOR 4 PIM

1st

  • 0:30TORChris Tanev · Interferencedrawn by Zach Benson2 min
  • 4:13BUFRyan McLeod · Holdingdrawn by Nick Robertson2 min
  • 9:25BUFJJ Peterka · Slashingdrawn by Simon Benoit2 min

2nd

  • 11:48BUFHenri Jokiharju · Slashingdrawn by Matthew Knies2 min

3rd

  • 0:23BUFHenri Jokiharju · Trippingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min
  • 17:48BUFDylan Cozens · Abuse of officials10 min
  • 19:47TORChris Tanev · Hookingdrawn by Jack Quinn2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalBUF goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: John Tavares, 2nd 13:51 — TOR 53% → 73%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.50M. Pacioretty · On goal · xG 0.49M. Pacioretty · On goal · xG 0.32A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.29M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.22J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.21N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.18M. Pacioretty · On goal · xG 0.17A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.16M. Domi · Goal · xG 0.15A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.13B. McMann · Missed · xG 0.12J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.12S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.11B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.10J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.10A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.10J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.09M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.09N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.08N. Robertson · Goal · xG 0.08A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.08M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.08J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.08J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.07A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.07M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.07M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.07P. Myers · On goal · xG 0.06M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.06A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.06A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.05M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.05J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.05A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.05O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.05M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.04A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.04O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.04O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.04M. Pacioretty · On goal · xG 0.03M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.03B. McMann · Missed · xG 0.03J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.03O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.03W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.03O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.02O. Ekman-Larsson · Missed · xG 0.02N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.02B. McMann · Missed · xG 0.02M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.02J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.02B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.01M. Pacioretty · Missed · xG 0.01P. Myers · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01M. Pacioretty · Missed · xG 0.00N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.00J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.00M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR5 G · 5.3 xG · 60 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsTOR
2.03 G
All situations
4 G5.3
1.72 G
Even strength
3 G3.4
0.31 G
Power play
1 G1.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 106 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF14%86%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.03 – 4.67

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsTOR
27
Shots on goal
41
43%
Faceoffs
57%
1/2
Power play
1/4
18
Penalty minutes
4
13
Hits
37
16
Blocked shots
4
11
Giveaways
12
1
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4B. ByramD011-130.09040—25:53
25O. PowerD000030.14050—24:44
23M. SamuelssonD011+120.05020—23:08
10H. JokiharjuD000030.14114—20:59
89A. TuchR101+120.091002518:25
22J. QuinnR202-150.37100—18:18
77J. PeterkaR022-200.09002—17:33
9Z. BensonL011010.16010—17:27
72T. ThompsonC011+120.050002117:11
24D. CozensC000-200.0340106814:33
12J. GreenwayL000-100.00110—14:13
78J. BrysonD000-200.05010—13:05
19P. KrebsC000000.110002512:57
71R. McLeodC000010.160027512:43
20J.KulichC000-120.192104412:23
29B. MalenstynL000030.10200—10:58
8D. GilbertD000-200.00000—10:47
17J. ZuckerL000-200.24100—09:51
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
27D. Levi(L)40364.9004.78+0.7857:59

Season series

TOR leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).