Skip to content
Maple Leafs at Sabres
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸6
Buffalo Sabres
3
FinalTV ESPN+, HULU·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Buffalo Sabres 6-3. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 5-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Auston Matthews's goal at 6:05 of the first period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 59% to 74%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 4.4 to 2.0; shots on goal were TOR 29, BUF 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 70% of the time. Matt Murray stopped 24 of 27 (.889), 1.0 goals below expected; James Reimer stopped 14 of 15 (.933), 1.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Bobby McMann (1 G, 1 A), 2. Max Domi (1 G, 1 A), 3. William Nylander (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    B. McMann1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Domi1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    W. Nylander1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR2931218629
BUFBUF0921117327

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    B. McMann(8)
    M. Domi (8), N. Robertson (3)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-0
    1:29
  2. TOR
    A. Matthews(11)PPG
    W. Nylander (14), M. Marner (33)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-0
    6:05

2nd period

  1. TOR
    N. Robertson(5)
    M. Rielly (14), C. Timmins (6)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +11 ptsVideo
    3-0
    1:53
  2. BUF
    J. Peterka(9)
    D. Cozens (8), C. Clifton (7)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +11 ptsVideo
    3-1
    2:22
  3. TOR
    M. Domi(3)
    B. McMann (4), M. Marner (34)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +11 ptsVideo
    4-1
    4:27
  4. TOR
    M. Pacioretty(5)
    W. Nylander (15), J. Tavares (15)
    tip-inxG 0.15win prob +5 ptsVideo
    5-1
    10:47
  5. BUF
    M. Samuelsson(2)
    O. Power (17), J. Peterka (14)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +3 ptsVideo
    5-2
    15:56

3rd period

  1. BUF
    O. Power(5)
    J.Kulich (1), M. Samuelsson (2)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +3 ptsVideo
    5-3
    11:56
  2. TOR
    W. Nylander(21)EN
    J. Tavares (16), C. Tanev (9)
    wristxG 0.74Video
    6-3
    19:40

Penalties

TOR 13 PIM·BUF 15 PIM

1st

  • 2:34BUFJason Zucker · High sticking double minordrawn by Chris Tanev4 min
  • 12:40TORMorgan Rielly · Roughingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min
  • 12:40TORMorgan Rielly · Fightingdrawn by Tage Thompson5 min
  • 12:40BUFTage Thompson · Fightingdrawn by Morgan Rielly5 min

2nd

  • 14:26TORJake McCabe · Roughingdrawn by Dylan Cozens2 min
  • 14:26BUFDylan Cozens · Roughingdrawn by Jake McCabe2 min
  • 17:43TORPontus Holmberg · Trippingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min

3rd

  • 9:39TORJohn Tavares · Slashingdrawn by Jason Zucker2 min
  • 9:39BUFJason Zucker · Slashingdrawn by John Tavares2 min
  • 12:32BUFJason Zucker · Slashingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalTOR goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Auston Matthews, 1st 6:05 — TOR 59% → 74%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
O. Power · Goal · xG 0.18A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.14B. Malenstyn · Missed · xG 0.11B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.10R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.10D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.10R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.10J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.10M. Samuelsson · Goal · xG 0.09O. Power · On goal · xG 0.09B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.09J. Peterka · Goal · xG 0.09A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.07R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.06D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.06B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.04J. Kulich · On goal · xG 0.04D. Gilbert · On goal · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.04J. Kulich · Missed · xG 0.04J. Kulich · Missed · xG 0.03O. Power · On goal · xG 0.03J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.03J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03J. Kulich · On goal · xG 0.03C. Clifton · Missed · xG 0.02J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.02A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.01J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.01B. Malenstyn · Missed · xG 0.01A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.01M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.01O. Power · Missed · xG 0.01S. Lafferty · On goal · xG 0.01R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.01P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.01J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.01D. Gilbert · Missed · xG 0.00
BUF3 G · 2.0 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsBUF
4.45 G
All situations
3 G2.0
2.44 G
Even strength
3 G1.9
0.81 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR70%30%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.14 – 2.01

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsBUF
29
Shots on goal
27
57%
Faceoffs
43%
1/3
Power play
0/2
13
Penalty minutes
15
26
Hits
24
21
Blocked shots
11
11
Giveaways
8
2
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. TanevD011+100.00120—21:02
25C. TimminsD011+100.00060—20:52
16M. MarnerR022+110.15010—19:54
22J. McCabeD000030.10132—19:35
88W. NylanderR123+231.14000—19:22
34A. MatthewsC101050.801105319:18
95O. Ekman-LarssonD000+120.04120—19:05
44M. RiellyD011+100.00137—18:25
91J. TavaresC022+220.195026017:44
2S. BenoitD000000.05500—16:24
23M. KniesL000010.05310—15:09
67M. PaciorettyL101+141.13100—15:07
64D. KampfC000+100.002105714:26
11M. DomiC112030.220006711:51
89N. RobertsonL112010.09100—11:26
74B. McMannC112030.34100011:13
18S. LorentzC000000.00200010:38
29P. HolmbergR000010.1211210010:29
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30M. Murray(W)27243.8892.02-0.9860:00

Season series

TOR leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).