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Avalanche at Ducks
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Anaheim Ducks

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Colorado Avalanche
▸4
Anaheim Ducks
2
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Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Anaheim Ducks 4-2. The Avalanche came back from two goals down. The Ducks led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Charlie Coyle's goal at 17:51 of the third period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 48% to 94%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 2.9 to 1.8; shots on goal were COL 25, ANA 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Scott Wedgewood stopped 19 of 21 (.905); Lukas Dostal stopped 21 of 24 (.875), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jack Drury (1 G, 1 A), 2. Mason McTavish (1 G), 3. Charlie Coyle (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    J. Drury1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    ANA
    M. McTavish1 G
  3. ★★★
    COL
    C. Coyle1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL0906410425
ANAANA161906221

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. ANA
    M. McTavish(22)
    N. Nesterenko (2), T. Terry (34)
    snapxG 0.03win prob +15 ptsVideo
    0-1
    18:52

2nd period

  1. ANA
    S. Colangelo(9)
    A. Killorn (18), F. Vatrano (23)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    7:35

3rd period

  1. COL
    W. Aamodt(1)
    M. Necas (56), J. Drury (10)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-2
    10:05
  2. COL
    J. Drury(8)PPG
    S. Malinski (10), C. Coyle (17)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +33 ptsVideo
    2-2
    14:34
  3. COL
    C. Coyle(17)
    J. Vesey (3), L. O'Connor (11)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +46 ptsVideo
    3-2
    17:51
  4. COL
    E. Johnson(2)EN
    C. Coyle (18)
    wristxG 0.54win prob +3 ptsVideo
    4-2
    19:12

Penalties

COL 4 PIM·ANA 6 PIM

1st

  • 15:43ANAFrank Vatrano · Slashingdrawn by Jere Innala2 min

2nd

  • 5:34COLCharlie Coyle · Trippingdrawn by Mason McTavish2 min

3rd

  • 0:07COLErik Johnson · High stickingdrawn by Nikita Nesterenko2 min
  • 2:34ANAJackson LaCombe · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 12:58ANADrew Helleson · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
ANA goalCOL goalFinal: ANA 0%

Biggest swing: Charlie Coyle, 3rd 17:51 — COL 48% → 94%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.26R. Strome · Missed · xG 0.22S. Colangelo · On goal · xG 0.16L. Carlsson · Missed · xG 0.14S. Colangelo · Goal · xG 0.12A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.11C. Gauthier · On goal · xG 0.10M. McTavish · On goal · xG 0.09N. Nesterenko · On goal · xG 0.07D. Helleson · Missed · xG 0.06M. McTavish · On goal · xG 0.06C. Gauthier · Missed · xG 0.05S. Colangelo · On goal · xG 0.04T. Terry · On goal · xG 0.03J. LaCombe · Missed · xG 0.03M. McTavish · Goal · xG 0.03I. Moore · On goal · xG 0.03I. Moore · On goal · xG 0.03N. Nesterenko · Missed · xG 0.02T. Terry · On goal · xG 0.02I. Moore · Missed · xG 0.02J. Trouba · On goal · xG 0.02I. Moore · Missed · xG 0.02T. Terry · On goal · xG 0.02S. Colangelo · On goal · xG 0.02I. Lundeström · On goal · xG 0.01I. Moore · Missed · xG 0.01I. Moore · On goal · xG 0.01R. Gudas · On goal · xG 0.01J. Trouba · On goal · xG 0.00D. Helleson · On goal · xG 0.00
ANA2 G · 1.8 xG · 31 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsANA
2.93 G
All situations
2 G1.8
1.82 G
Even strength
2 G0.9
0.61 G
Power play
0 G0.9
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 76 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL61%39%ANA

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.38 – 1.79

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsANA
25
Shots on goal
21
49%
Faceoffs
51%
1/3
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
12
Hits
12
18
Blocked shots
15
15
Giveaways
18
1
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
70S. MalinskiD011-130.09010—25:15
88M. NecasC011+100.00000021:12
49S. GirardD000+200.17010—21:07
11B. NelsonC000+120.221104720:47
18J. DruryC112+130.410106019:32
6E. JohnsonD101+110.57212—19:06
5W. AamodtD101+110.09440—19:05
10C. CoyleC123+130.300026018:52
17P. KellyC000+130.43210017:55
94J. KivirantaL000010.15000—16:56
25L. O'ConnorR011+100.00010—16:34
67K. MiddletonD000-130.18030—14:58
28M. WoodL000-210.07020—14:39
15J. AhcanD000010.05100—14:32
26J. VeseyL011000.07100—12:22
14C. WagnerR000-100.00020—08:30
22J. InnalaL000020.08000—07:35
9T. TynanC000010.06100007:12
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41S. Wedgewood(W)21192.9051.82-0.1859:51

Season series

COL leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).