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Avalanche at Ducks
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Anaheim Ducks

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸4
Anaheim Ducks
2
FinalTV Victory+, ALT·Honda Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Anaheim Ducks 4-2. The Ducks scored first; the Avalanche answered. The Avalanche led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Valeri Nichushkin's goal at 10:57 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 47% to 66%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.7 to 2.5; shots on goal were COL 23, ANA 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Scott Wedgewood stopped 30 of 32 (.938), 0.6 goals saved above expected; John Gibson stopped 19 of 22 (.864). Three stars: 1. Cale Makar (1 G, 1 A), 2. Leo Carlsson (1 G), 3. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    C. Makar1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    ANA
    L. Carlsson1 G
  3. ★★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL0521325423
ANAANA01219111232

Scoring

6 goals

2nd period

  1. ANA
    L. Carlsson(7)
    J. Trouba (7), B. McGinn (4)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +16 ptsVideo
    0-1
    2:40
  2. COL
    P. Kelly(3)SHG
    L. O'Connor (5)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +18 ptsVideo
    1-1
    6:40
  3. COL
    V. Nichushkin(10)
    C. Makar (32), N. MacKinnon (40)
    wristxG 0.52win prob +19 ptsVideo
    2-1
    10:57

3rd period

  1. COL
    C. Makar(10)PPG
    N. MacKinnon (41), M. Rantanen (30)
    snapxG 0.22win prob +13 ptsVideo
    3-1
    3:30
  2. ANA
    A. Killorn(7)
    P. Mintyukov (4)
    deflectedxG 0.08win prob +12 ptsVideo
    3-2
    13:05
  3. COL
    N. MacKinnon(14)EN
    M. Rantanen (31), V. Nichushkin (5)
    wristxG 0.64win prob +6 ptsVideo
    4-2
    18:41

Penalties

COL 15 PIM·ANA 13 PIM

1st

  • 2:08ANARoss Johnston · Fightingdrawn by Keaton Middleton5 min
  • 2:08COLKeaton Middleton · Fightingdrawn by Ross Johnston5 min
  • 5:13COLParker Kelly · Hookingdrawn by Cutter Gauthier2 min
  • 9:56COLserved by Ivan Ivan · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 17:08ANARoss Johnston · Trippingdrawn by Parker Kelly2 min

2nd

  • 4:59COLJoel Kiviranta · Trippingdrawn by Mason McTavish2 min
  • 13:49ANAFrank Vatrano · Holdingdrawn by Artturi Lehkonen2 min
  • 16:47COLDevon Toews · Hookingdrawn by Cutter Gauthier2 min

3rd

  • 2:59ANAJansen Harkins · Slashingdrawn by Jere Innala2 min
  • 8:15ANARadko Gudas · Interferencedrawn by Ross Colton2 min
  • 14:36ANAJackson LaCombe · Ps hooking on breakawaydrawn by Samuel Girard0 min
  • 16:07COLParker Kelly · Holdingdrawn by Troy Terry2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
ANA goalCOL goalFinal: ANA 0%

Biggest swing: Valeri Nichushkin, 2nd 10:57 — COL 47% → 66%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Strome · On goal · xG 0.24M. McTavish · Missed · xG 0.19R. Strome · On goal · xG 0.17C. Gauthier · On goal · xG 0.16F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.14R. Fabbri · On goal · xG 0.12M. McTavish · On goal · xG 0.12A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.10F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.09L. Carlsson · Goal · xG 0.09A. Killorn · Goal · xG 0.08I. Lundeström · On goal · xG 0.07M. McTavish · On goal · xG 0.07C. Gauthier · On goal · xG 0.07C. Gauthier · Missed · xG 0.07M. McTavish · On goal · xG 0.06B. McGinn · On goal · xG 0.06C. Gauthier · On goal · xG 0.06F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.06B. McGinn · On goal · xG 0.06B. McGinn · On goal · xG 0.05R. Strome · On goal · xG 0.05C. Gauthier · On goal · xG 0.05T. Terry · On goal · xG 0.05J. LaCombe · On goal · xG 0.04R. Strome · Missed · xG 0.03R. Strome · Missed · xG 0.03J. LaCombe · On goal · xG 0.03R. Fabbri · On goal · xG 0.02J. Trouba · Missed · xG 0.02J. LaCombe · Missed · xG 0.01J. Trouba · On goal · xG 0.01R. Gudas · On goal · xG 0.01O. Zellweger · Missed · xG 0.01A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.01B. Dumoulin · Missed · xG 0.01B. Dumoulin · On goal · xG 0.01R. Gudas · On goal · xG 0.01P. Mintyukov · On goal · xG 0.01C. Gauthier · On goal · xG 0.00R. Gudas · On goal · xG 0.00
ANA2 G · 2.5 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsANA
3.73 G
All situations
2 G2.5
1.81 G
Even strength
2 G1.7
1.11 G
Power play
0 G0.9
0.21 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 77 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL59%41%ANA

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.99 – 2.53

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsANA
23
Shots on goal
32
47%
Faceoffs
53%
1/4
Power play
0/5
15
Penalty minutes
13
17
Hits
27
22
Blocked shots
12
6
Giveaways
9
1
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
7D. ToewsD000-100.00212—23:14
49S. GirardD000+120.39120—23:07
8C. MakarD112+370.63130—23:02
13V. NichushkinR112+230.68100—21:19
96M. RantanenR022000.330205019:51
62A. LehkonenL000+110.061206719:00
29N. MacKinnonC123+230.840103018:49
70S. MalinskiD000-230.06020—18:40
44C. de HaanD000+100.01010—18:13
20R. ColtonC000000.072103317:14
25L. O'ConnorR011+100.00110—16:35
37C. MittelstadtC000-100.012002516:06
17P. KellyC101+130.202246714:03
94J. KivirantaL000010.16002—11:24
67K. MiddletonD000000.00025—08:18
82I. IvanC000-100.000007107:49
22J. InnalaL000-100.26320—07:09
55G. SmithR000-200.00100—06:08
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41S. Wedgewood(W)32302.9382.55+0.5559:59

Season series

COL leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).