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Ducks at Avalanche
NHL

Anaheim Ducks at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Anaheim Ducks
3
Colorado Avalanche
▸4
Final/OTTV Victory+, ALT·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Anaheim Ducks 4-3 in overtime, Nathan MacKinnon scoring at 4:19. The Avalanche came back from two goals down. The Ducks led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nathan MacKinnon's goal at 4:19 of overtime, which took the Avalanche's chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 5.9 to 3.1; shots on goal were ANA 19, COL 49. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 85% of the time. Lukas Dostal stopped 45 of 49 (.918), 1.9 goals saved above expected; Alexandar Georgiev stopped 16 of 19 (.842). Three stars: 1. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G, 1 A), 2. Ross Colton (2 G), 3. Lukas Dostal (45 saves, .918).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    R. Colton2 G
  3. ★★★
    ANA
    L. Dostal45 saves, .918

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
ANAANA28021801319
COLCOL0181172915449

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. ANA
    L. Carlsson(2)
    Unassisted
    pokexG 0.67win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    6:05
  2. ANA
    R. Strome(1)
    B. Dumoulin (2)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-0
    19:36

2nd period

  1. COL
    C. Mittelstadt(4)
    N. Kovalenko (1), C. Makar (8)
    backhandxG 0.24win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-1
    0:57

3rd period

  1. COL
    R. Colton(3)PPG
    C. Mittelstadt (1), M. Rantanen (4)
    slapxG 0.14win prob +24 ptsVideo
    2-2
    0:35
  2. COL
    R. Colton(4)
    M. Rantanen (5), N. MacKinnon (7)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +33 ptsVideo
    2-3
    11:42
  3. ANA
    T. Terry(3)
    O. Zellweger (1)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +44 ptsVideo
    3-3
    19:47

Overtime

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(2)
    M. Rantanen (6)
    snapxG 0.26win prob +49 ptsVideo
    3-4
    4:19

Penalties

ANA 10 PIM·COL 6 PIM

1st

  • 8:12ANATrevor Zegras · Slashingdrawn by Josh Manson2 min
  • 15:37ANARobby Fabbri · Hookingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min

2nd

  • 6:52ANARoss Johnston · Holding the stickdrawn by Sam Malinski2 min
  • 18:34COLNathan MacKinnon · Trippingdrawn by Mason McTavish2 min
  • 18:57ANAOlen Zellweger · Holdingdrawn by Parker Kelly2 min
  • 19:40ANAserved by M. McTavish · Too many men on the ice2 min

3rd

  • 14:36COLMiles Wood · Slashingdrawn by Brian Dumoulin2 min
  • 17:28COLCale Makar · Trippingdrawn by Troy Terry2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalANA goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Nathan MacKinnon, OT 4:19 — COL 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.43C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.27N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.26M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.25C. Mittelstadt · Goal · xG 0.24N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.21L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.20S. Girard · Missed · xG 0.19C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.18C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.15R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.14P. Kelly · Missed · xG 0.14R. Colton · Goal · xG 0.14R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.13N. Kovalenko · On goal · xG 0.13C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.12R. Colton · Goal · xG 0.12N. Kovalenko · Missed · xG 0.12M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.12P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.11N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.11N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.11I. Ivan · On goal · xG 0.10R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.09C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.09C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.09M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.09R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.08M. Stienburg · On goal · xG 0.08N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.08N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.08N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.08I. Ivan · On goal · xG 0.08C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.08I. Ivan · On goal · xG 0.07C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.07R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.07M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.07M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.06C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.06M. Wood · Missed · xG 0.05N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.05R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.05S. Malinski · On goal · xG 0.05N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.04C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.03P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.03C. Ritchie · Missed · xG 0.03N. Kovalenko · On goal · xG 0.02C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.02S. Malinski · Missed · xG 0.02P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.02I. Ivan · On goal · xG 0.02S. Malinski · Missed · xG 0.02R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.02C. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.02M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.01C. de Haan · On goal · xG 0.01M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.01J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.01N. Kovalenko · On goal · xG 0.01M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.01C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.01M. Stienburg · On goal · xG 0.00C. de Haan · On goal · xG 0.00N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.00
COL4 G · 5.9 xG · 68 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

ANAvsCOL
3.13 G
All situations
4 G5.9
2.23 G
Even strength
3 G4.4
0.90 G
Power play
1 G1.4
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 106 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
ANA15%85%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.03 – 5.78

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

ANAvsCOL
19
Shots on goal
49
39%
Faceoffs
61%
0/3
Power play
1/5
10
Penalty minutes
6
21
Hits
16
27
Blocked shots
19
10
Giveaways
16
3
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Anaheim Ducks skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4C. FowlerD000-100.00040—24:46
34P. MintyukovD000010.04020—21:45
13R. FabbriC000000.131326721:39
7R. GudasD000000.02340—20:22
91L. CarlssonC101030.981003319:31
11T. ZegrasC000030.34112018:52
6B. DumoulinD011+120.23240—18:45
23M. McTavishC000000.440003617:41
16R. StromeC101010.220104417:20
19T. TerryR101020.32000—17:11
51O. ZellwegerD011+110.02002—17:07
17A. KillornL000+100.05000—17:02
67T. LuneauD000-110.02110—16:13
61C. GauthierL000+230.150101715:47
26B. McGinnL000-110.11540—15:23
38J. HarkinsC000010.031105710:11
20B. LeasonR000000.00100—09:10
44R. JohnstonL000+100.00512—07:28
Anaheim Ducks goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1L. Dostal(O)49454.9185.94+1.9461:25

Season series

COL leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).