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Maple Leafs at Hurricanes
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Carolina Hurricanes

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
Carolina Hurricanes
1
FinalTV FDSNSO, SNO·Lenovo Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Carolina Hurricanes 4-1. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Auston Matthews's goal at 10:20 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 66% to 83%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 2.7 to 2.3; shots on goal were TOR 20, CAR 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Joseph Woll stopped 25 of 26 (.962), 1.7 goals saved above expected; Frederik Andersen stopped 16 of 20 (.800), 1.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Joseph Woll (25 saves, .962), 2. Morgan Rielly (3 A), 3. Max Domi (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    J. Woll25 saves, .962
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Rielly3 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    M. Domi2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR141828420
CARCAR01102113126

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    P. Holmberg(7)
    M. Rielly (32), B. Carlo (11)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-0
    19:43

2nd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(31)
    M. Rielly (33), M. Marner (73)
    slapxG 0.10win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-0
    10:20

3rd period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(45)
    M. Domi (24), S. Benoit (9)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +8 ptsVideo
    3-0
    1:25
  2. CAR
    S. Aho(29)PPG
    S. Jarvis (35), B. Burns (23)
    slapxG 0.07win prob +5 ptsVideo
    3-1
    7:58
  3. TOR
    J. Tavares(38)
    M. Domi (25), M. Rielly (34)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +1 ptsVideo
    4-1
    15:43

Penalties

TOR 8 PIM·CAR 4 PIM

1st

  • 5:02CARJack Roslovic · High stickingdrawn by Simon Benoit2 min

2nd

  • 1:27TORPhilippe Myers · Interferencedrawn by Eric Robinson2 min
  • 15:36CARTaylor Hall · Trippingdrawn by Pontus Holmberg2 min

3rd

  • 4:16TORChris Tanev · High stickingdrawn by Jordan Staal2 min
  • 4:16TORChris Tanev · Trippingdrawn by Eric Robinson2 min
  • 18:44TORBrandon Carlo · Trippingdrawn by Tyson Jost2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalTOR goalFinal: CAR 0%

Biggest swing: Auston Matthews, 2nd 10:20 — TOR 66% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Roslovic · On goal · xG 0.37A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.25E. Robinson · On goal · xG 0.17S. Jarvis · Missed · xG 0.16E. Robinson · On goal · xG 0.13S. Jarvis · Missed · xG 0.12A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.09S. Jarvis · Missed · xG 0.08J. Roslovic · Missed · xG 0.08W. Carrier · Missed · xG 0.08A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.07S. Aho · Goal · xG 0.06T. Hall · Missed · xG 0.06W. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.06T. Jost · Missed · xG 0.06S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.05A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.05A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.04L. Stankoven · Missed · xG 0.04S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.04J. Blake · On goal · xG 0.04A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.04J. Blake · On goal · xG 0.03L. Stankoven · Missed · xG 0.03T. Jost · Missed · xG 0.03T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.03E. Robinson · On goal · xG 0.03J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.03J. Blake · Missed · xG 0.03S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.03J. Staal · Missed · xG 0.03A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.03E. Robinson · Missed · xG 0.02T. Jost · Missed · xG 0.02T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.02S. Jarvis · Missed · xG 0.02E. Robinson · Missed · xG 0.02J. Slavin · Missed · xG 0.02J. Blake · Missed · xG 0.02T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.02S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.02B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.02B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.01J. Chatfield · On goal · xG 0.01J. Slavin · Missed · xG 0.01J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Staal · Missed · xG 0.01D. Orlov · Missed · xG 0.01S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.01J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.01S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.01T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.00
CAR1 G · 2.7 xG · 52 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsCAR
2.34 G
All situations
1 G2.7
2.04 G
Even strength
0 G1.6
0.10 G
Power play
1 G1.1
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR42%58%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.28 – 2.69

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsCAR
20
Shots on goal
26
57%
Faceoffs
43%
0/2
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
4
18
Hits
27
18
Blocked shots
5
16
Giveaways
16
3
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
25B. CarloD011+110.02312—22:01
2S. BenoitD011+100.00210—21:38
8C. TanevD000+100.00114—20:13
44M. RiellyD033+300.02020—19:02
16M. MarnerR011+110.06010—18:40
91J. TavaresC101+240.403005617:09
88W. NylanderR101+210.2401010017:03
34A. MatthewsC101+120.172204716:47
23M. KniesL000+110.07000—16:07
19C. JarnkrokC000000.20000016:03
24S. LaughtonC000010.200006415:57
51P. MyersD000+200.00002—15:32
36D. MermisD000010.04220—15:11
18S. LorentzC000000.02130015:07
11M. DomiC022+210.07010013:42
74B. McMannC000+130.21110011:29
89N. RobertsonL000+120.31200—10:51
29P. HolmbergR101+120.281207510:30
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Woll(W)26251.9622.74+1.7460:00

Season series

TOR leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).