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Hurricanes at Maple Leafs
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
3
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸6
FinalTV NHLN, FDSNSO·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Carolina Hurricanes 6-3. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 4-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Pontus Holmberg's goal at 3:29 of the first period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 65% to 79%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 4.7 to 3.0; shots on goal were CAR 35, TOR 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Pyotr Kochetkov stopped 18 of 21 (.857), 0.8 goals below expected; Anthony Stolarz stopped 32 of 35 (.914). Three stars: 1. Alex Steeves (1 G, 1 A), 2. John Tavares (1 G, 1 A), 3. Pontus Holmberg (2 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    A. Steeves1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    J. Tavares1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    P. Holmberg2 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CARCAR01208315335
TORTOR4110923623

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    A. Steeves(1)
    J. Tavares (25)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-1
    2:50
  2. TOR
    P. Holmberg(3)
    Unassisted
    xG 0.48win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    3:29
  3. TOR
    D. Kampf(4)
    S. Lorentz (8), A. Steeves (1)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +10 ptsVideo
    0-3
    6:39
  4. TOR
    J. Tavares(22)
    W. Nylander (23), P. Holmberg (7)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +5 ptsVideo
    0-4
    15:06

3rd period

  1. CAR
    S. Gostisbehere(7)
    S. Aho (36), A. Svechnikov (24)
    tip-inxG 0.10Video
    1-4
    12:25
  2. CAR
    A. Svechnikov(18)
    M. Rantanen (41), S. Gostisbehere (24)
    slapxG 0.07win prob +1 ptsVideo
    2-4
    14:46
  3. CAR
    J. Slavin(5)
    J. Staal (19), B. Burns (17)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +9 ptsVideo
    3-4
    15:06
  4. TOR
    A. Matthews(21)EN
    C. Tanev (14)
    backhandxG 0.32win prob +5 ptsVideo
    3-5
    18:37
  5. TOR
    P. Holmberg(4)EN
    W. Nylander (24)
    wristxG 0.80Video
    3-6
    19:40

Penalties

CAR 6 PIM·TOR 6 PIM

1st

  • 3:53CARSebastian Aho · Slashingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min
  • 18:49TORConor Timmins · Holdingdrawn by Jackson Blake2 min

2nd

  • 8:40CARSebastian Aho · High stickingdrawn by Conor Timmins2 min
  • 15:27TORDavid Kampf · Hookingdrawn by Seth Jarvis2 min

3rd

  • 13:03TORBobby McMann · Roughingdrawn by Sean Walker2 min
  • 13:03CARSean Walker · Roughingdrawn by Bobby McMann2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalCAR goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Pontus Holmberg, 1st 3:29 — TOR 65% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
P. Holmberg · Goal · xG 0.80P. Holmberg · Goal · xG 0.48A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.39P. Holmberg · On goal · xG 0.33A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.32M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.20M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.20W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.18D. Kampf · Goal · xG 0.18A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.16M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.16A. Steeves · On goal · xG 0.16J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.13J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.12B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.12D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.11A. Steeves · Goal · xG 0.10B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.09M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.08N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.06N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.06W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.06A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.04M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.04A. Steeves · Missed · xG 0.04J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.03B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.02N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.02W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.01S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.01C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR6 G · 4.7 xG · 31 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsTOR
3.03 G
All situations
4 G4.7
2.33 G
Even strength
4 G2.5
0.70 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR52%48%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.00 – 2.90

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsTOR
35
Shots on goal
23
42%
Faceoffs
58%
0/2
Power play
0/2
6
Penalty minutes
6
23
Hits
24
4
Blocked shots
21
17
Giveaways
12
6
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8B. BurnsD011-240.10000—24:13
96M. RantanenR011-110.280005023:07
20S. AhoC011-210.152045022:49
74J. SlavinD101-140.26010—22:02
24S. JarvisR000-320.13100—20:44
5J. ChatfieldD000-120.20300—19:57
7D. OrlovD000-110.03200—19:20
37A. SvechnikovR112-150.28310—19:14
53J. BlakeR000030.38000—15:23
71T. HallL000+120.26100—15:07
48J. MartinookL000-120.15200—15:03
4S. GostisbehereD112-140.26000—14:57
11J. StaalC011010.172003514:41
26S. WalkerD000010.06112—14:06
82J. KotkaniemiC000010.040103612:36
98J. RoslovicC000-200.160006710:16
50E. RobinsonL000-110.12300—08:20
27T. JostC000-100.003004004:48
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
52P. Kochetkov(L)21184.8573.18-0.8257:17

Season series

TOR leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).