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Maple Leafs at Hurricanes
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Carolina Hurricanes

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
Carolina Hurricanes
▸6
FinalTV ESPN+, HULU·Lenovo Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 6-3. The Hurricanes came back from two goals down. The Hurricanes led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jackson Blake's goal at 4:58 of the second period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 53% to 70%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 4.5 to 3.3; shots on goal were TOR 33, CAR 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Joseph Woll stopped 28 of 33 (.848), 1.4 goals below expected; Pyotr Kochetkov stopped 30 of 33 (.909). Three stars: 1. Jordan Staal (3 G), 2. Jordan Martinook (3 A), 3. Eric Robinson (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    J. Staal3 G
  2. ★★
    CAR
    J. Martinook3 A
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    E. Robinson1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR21318012333
CARCAR212212210634

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    N. Robertson(7)
    M. Domi (12), S. Lorentz (5)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    1:59
  2. TOR
    W. Nylander(24)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.20win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-0
    7:29
  3. CAR
    E. Robinson(10)
    T. Smith (1), M. Necas (33)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-1
    13:58
  4. CAR
    J. Staal(6)
    A. Svechnikov (17), J. Martinook (10)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-2
    14:15

2nd period

  1. CAR
    J. Staal(7)SHG
    J. Martinook (11), J. Slavin (11)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-3
    0:35
  2. TOR
    A. Matthews(14)PPG
    M. Knies (11), M. Marner (45)
    backhandxG 0.59win prob +13 ptsVideo
    3-3
    1:11
  3. CAR
    J. Blake(9)
    J. Jaaska (1), D. Orlov (15)
    snapxG 0.09win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-4
    4:58

3rd period

  1. CAR
    J. Staal(8)
    B. Burns (11), J. Martinook (12)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +16 ptsVideo
    3-5
    0:20
  2. CAR
    S. Jarvis(12)EN
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.87win prob +1 ptsVideo
    3-6
    16:23

Penalties

TOR 6 PIM·CAR 4 PIM

1st

  • 16:40TORMorgan Rielly · Trippingdrawn by Martin Necas2 min

2nd

  • 0:19CARBrent Burns · High stickingdrawn by Matthew Knies2 min
  • 6:35TORBobby McMann · Interferencedrawn by Jack Roslovic2 min
  • 12:38TORAuston Matthews · Slashingdrawn by Andrei Svechnikov2 min
  • 17:57CARJalen Chatfield · Trippingdrawn by Matthew Knies2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalTOR goalFinal: CAR 100%

Biggest swing: Jackson Blake, 2nd 4:58 — CAR 53% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Jarvis · Goal · xG 0.87J. Drury · On goal · xG 0.25E. Robinson · On goal · xG 0.18J. Staal · Goal · xG 0.17J. Kotkaniemi · On goal · xG 0.16S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.14S. Jarvis · Missed · xG 0.13E. Robinson · On goal · xG 0.12J. Staal · Goal · xG 0.12E. Robinson · On goal · xG 0.11M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.10E. Robinson · Goal · xG 0.09J. Jaaska · On goal · xG 0.09S. Walker · On goal · xG 0.09S. Jarvis · Missed · xG 0.09J. Blake · Goal · xG 0.09S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.08S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.08E. Robinson · On goal · xG 0.08S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.07S. Walker · On goal · xG 0.07S. Jarvis · Missed · xG 0.07J. Blake · On goal · xG 0.07E. Robinson · Missed · xG 0.07J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.06J. Drury · Missed · xG 0.06J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.06J. Staal · Goal · xG 0.05M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.05M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.05J. Jaaska · Missed · xG 0.05J. Roslovic · On goal · xG 0.05J. Drury · Missed · xG 0.05J. Drury · Missed · xG 0.05S. Jarvis · Missed · xG 0.04M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.04J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.04D. Orlov · Missed · xG 0.04J. Kotkaniemi · On goal · xG 0.03J. Slavin · Missed · xG 0.03J. Chatfield · Missed · xG 0.03D. Orlov · Missed · xG 0.03S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.03J. Roslovic · On goal · xG 0.03B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.02J. Jaaska · Missed · xG 0.02T. Smith · On goal · xG 0.02J. Drury · On goal · xG 0.02J. Drury · Missed · xG 0.02J. Blake · Missed · xG 0.02M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.02E. Robinson · Missed · xG 0.01M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.01J. Slavin · Missed · xG 0.01T. Smith · On goal · xG 0.01J. Chatfield · Missed · xG 0.01J. Chatfield · Missed · xG 0.01S. Walker · On goal · xG 0.01B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.01B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.01B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.01B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.01J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.00
CAR6 G · 4.5 xG · 63 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsCAR
3.33 G
All situations
5 G4.5
2.52 G
Even strength
4 G2.9
0.81 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 112 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR45%55%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.29 – 3.60

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsCAR
33
Shots on goal
34
49%
Faceoffs
51%
1/2
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
26
Hits
13
22
Blocked shots
11
14
Giveaways
15
5
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. TanevD000-200.00150—20:51
95O. Ekman-LarssonD000-100.19110—20:16
2S. BenoitD000000.01610—19:58
16M. MarnerR011-620.48000—19:29
91J. TavaresC000-140.231005018:59
44M. RiellyD000-310.01012—18:43
88W. NylanderR101-140.52010—18:20
25C. TimminsD000+120.06540—17:44
51P. MyersD000020.04120—17:06
74B. McMannC000+120.09212016:56
34A. MatthewsC101-620.661025615:32
64D. KampfC000010.010004515:19
23M. KniesL011-520.06210—15:05
89N. RobertsonL101050.49000—13:16
11M. DomiC011+100.000005012:34
24C. DewarC000010.255205012:27
18S. LorentzC011+120.07120012:04
29P. HolmbergR000030.13010—09:36
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Woll(L)33285.8483.64-1.3659:45

Season series

TOR leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).