Islanders at Devils 1-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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New York Islanders

▸1

New Jersey Devils

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Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the New Jersey Devils 1-0. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. The Islanders led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Bo Horvat's goal at 19:03 of the second period, which took the Islanders' chances from 47% to 71%. Expected goals were close — NYI 1.8, NJD 2.0; shots on goal were NYI 23, NJD 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Devils win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Ilya Sorokin stopped 25 of 25 (1.000), 2.0 goals saved above expected; Jacob Markstrom stopped 22 of 23 (.957), 0.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Ilya Sorokin (25 saves, 1.000), 2. Bo Horvat (1 G), 3. Jacob Markstrom (22 saves, .957).

Three stars

★
I. Sorokin25 saves, 1.000
★★
B. Horvat1 G
★★★
J. Markstrom22 saves, .957

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	08	16	09	123
NJD	010	06	09	025

Scoring

1 goal

2nd period

B. Horvat(28)
Unassisted
wristxG 0.05win prob +23 ptsVideo
1-0
19:03

Penalties

2 PIM·

9 PIM

1st

3:57Casey Cizikas · Hookingdrawn by Nico Hischier2 min
9:58Nathan Bastian · Boardingdrawn by Casey Cizikas2 min

2nd

6:00Paul Cotter · Match penaltydrawn by Adam Pelech5 min

3rd

1:00served by D. Sprong · Too many men on the ice2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: NJD

Biggest swing: Bo Horvat, 2nd 19:03 — NYI 47% → 71%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 2.0 xG · 43 att

←

attacks

attacks →

1 G · 1.8 xG · 36 att NJD

0 G · 2.0 xG · 43 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.81 G
All situations: 0 G2.0; 1.11 G
Even strength: 0 G1.7; 0.70 G
Power play: 0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

46%54%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.78 – 1.98

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

23
Shots on goal: 25; 45%
Faceoffs: 55%; 0/3
Power play: 0/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 9; 27
Hits: 19; 22
Blocked shots: 9; 31
Giveaways: 23; 3
Takeaways: 2

Box score

every player line

New York Islanders skaters
Skater	G	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
8N. DobsonD	0	0	0	1	0.04	1	3	0	—	24:53
28A. RomanovD	0	0	+1	2	0.12	1	1	0	—	22:27
6R. PulockD	0	0	0	2	0.18	3	2	0	—	22:18
4T. DeAngeloD	0	0	0	0	0.03	0	1	0	—	22:08
21K. PalmieriC	0	0	+1	1	0.28	1	2	0	0	20:31
24S. MayfieldD	0	0	+1	0	0.00	4	2	0	—	19:26
14B. HorvatC	1	1	+1	6	0.36	0	0	0	45	19:18
27A. LeeL	0	0	+1	2	0.16	1	0	0	100	17:32
44J. PageauC	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	0	30	15:32
7M. TsyplakovR	0	0	0	1	0.01	2	2	0	—	14:47
18P. EngvallL	0	0	0	2	0.29	2	0	0	—	14:34
53C. CizikasC	0	0	0	2	0.08	1	2	2	42	14:34
20H. FaschingR	0	0	0	1	0.15	1	0	0	—	14:33
10S. HolmstromR	0	0	0	2	0.02	1	2	0	—	14:25
32K. MacLeanC	0	0	0	1	0.01	1	1	0	63	11:31
16M. GatcombC	0	0	0	0	0.00	4	2	0	0	10:19
17M. MartinL	0	0	0	0	0.01	3	1	0	—	10:06
3A. PelechD	0	0	0	0	0.05	0	0	0	—	09:06

New York Islanders goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
30I. Sorokin(W)	25	25	0	1.000	1.99	+1.99	60:00

Season series

NYI leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

New York Islanders at New Jersey Devils

2nd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score