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Predators at Golden Knights
NHL

Nashville Predators at Vegas Golden Knights

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
3
Vegas Golden Knights
▸5
FinalTV FDSNSO, SCRIPPS·T-Mobile Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Vegas Golden Knights beat the Nashville Predators 5-3. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Golden Knights led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Noah Hanifin's goal at 18:05 of the third period, which took the Golden Knights' chances from 52% to 96%. Expected goals favored the Golden Knights, 3.9 to 1.6; shots on goal were NSH 17, VGK 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Golden Knights win a replay of these chances 74% of the time. Justus Annunen stopped 24 of 28 (.857), 1.0 goals below expected; Adin Hill stopped 14 of 17 (.824), 1.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Noah Hanifin (1 G), 2. Nicolas Roy (1 G, 1 A), 3. Brett Howden (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    VGK
    N. Hanifin1 G
  2. ★★
    VGK
    N. Roy1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    VGK
    B. Howden1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH150527317
VGKVGK0153727529

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    J. Oesterle(3)
    L. Evangelista (20), M. Bunting (19)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-0
    8:11

2nd period

  1. VGK
    B. Howden(23)
    B. McNabb (15), T. Pearson (15)
    snapxG 0.09win prob +17 ptsVideo
    1-1
    4:02
  2. VGK
    N. Roy(14)
    K. Kolesar (17), S. Theodore (48)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +17 ptsVideo
    1-2
    5:36
  3. VGK
    A. Holtz(4)PPG
    W. Karlsson (19), R. Smith (26)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-3
    11:09

3rd period

  1. NSH
    J. Marchessault(20)
    Z. L'Heureux (10), J. Barron (6)
    wristxG 0.32win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    1:02
  2. NSH
    M. Del Gaizo(2)
    A. Englund (2), L. Evangelista (21)
    deflectedxG 0.05win prob +26 pts
    3-3
    4:58
  3. VGK
    N. Hanifin(10)
    Z. Whitecloud (9), R. Smith (27)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +44 ptsVideo
    3-4
    18:05
  4. VGK
    I. Barbashev(23)EN
    N. Roy (16), B. Howden (16)
    backhandxG 0.93win prob +2 ptsVideo
    3-5
    19:58

Penalties

NSH 6 PIM·VGK 2 PIM

1st

  • 10:11NSHMatthew Wood · Hookingdrawn by Zach Whitecloud2 min

2nd

  • 1:39NSHRyan O'Reilly · Trippingdrawn by Mark Stone2 min
  • 9:26NSHFedor Svechkov · Trippingdrawn by Nicolas Roy2 min

3rd

  • 12:42VGKReilly Smith · Hookingdrawn by Nick Blankenburg2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
VGK goalNSH goalFinal: VGK 100%

Biggest swing: Noah Hanifin, 3rd 18:05 — VGK 52% → 96%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
I. Barbashev · Goal · xG 0.93P. Dorofeyev · On goal · xG 0.17T. Pearson · On goal · xG 0.17M. Stone · Missed · xG 0.15B. Howden · On goal · xG 0.15T. Pearson · Missed · xG 0.14N. Roy · Missed · xG 0.14T. Pearson · Missed · xG 0.14A. Holtz · Goal · xG 0.13A. Holtz · Missed · xG 0.13W. Karlsson · Missed · xG 0.12A. Holtz · Missed · xG 0.11N. Roy · Goal · xG 0.11B. Howden · Goal · xG 0.09T. Hertl · On goal · xG 0.09T. Pearson · On goal · xG 0.09M. Stone · Missed · xG 0.08B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.08P. Dorofeyev · On goal · xG 0.08T. Hertl · On goal · xG 0.07R. Smith · Missed · xG 0.07R. Smith · Missed · xG 0.05W. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.05I. Barbashev · On goal · xG 0.05W. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.05K. Kolesar · Missed · xG 0.04A. Holtz · On goal · xG 0.04K. Kolesar · Missed · xG 0.04T. Pearson · On goal · xG 0.04I. Barbashev · Missed · xG 0.04T. Hertl · Missed · xG 0.04N. Roy · On goal · xG 0.04P. Dorofeyev · On goal · xG 0.03S. Theodore · Missed · xG 0.03N. Hanifin · Goal · xG 0.03T. Hertl · Missed · xG 0.02R. Smith · On goal · xG 0.01W. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.01K. Korczak · On goal · xG 0.01N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.01P. Dorofeyev · On goal · xG 0.01T. Hertl · On goal · xG 0.01T. Hertl · On goal · xG 0.01W. Karlsson · Missed · xG 0.01A. Holtz · Missed · xG 0.01S. Theodore · On goal · xG 0.01B. McNabb · On goal · xG 0.01
VGK5 G · 3.9 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsVGK
1.63 G
All situations
4 G3.9
1.43 G
Even strength
3 G2.5
0.10 G
Power play
1 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 76 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH26%74%VGK

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.57 – 2.92

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsVGK
17
Shots on goal
29
43%
Faceoffs
57%
0/1
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
2
20
Hits
11
21
Blocked shots
18
23
Giveaways
23
5
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
20J. BarronD011-100.04410—22:55
76B. SkjeiD000-320.11000—22:51
82J. OesterleD101+110.09020—22:23
37N. BlankenburgD000-200.00120—22:17
9F. ForsbergL000-310.12150—18:05
91S. StamkosC000-200.030005017:44
90R. O'ReillyC000+120.160122817:34
81J. MarchessaultR101-210.39000—17:01
77L. EvangelistaR022+230.16110—15:50
58M. BuntingL011+210.09100—15:44
47M. McCarronC000010.032105615:26
7M. Del GaizoD101+210.07020—14:43
36C. SmithR000010.19600—14:24
68Z. L'HeureuxL011020.03210—14:07
8A. EnglundD011+100.00120—13:01
40F. SvechkovC000-100.000124312:08
19J. VranaL000-110.06110—10:11
52M. WoodR000000.000125009:12
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29J. Annunen(L)28244.8573.00-1.0058:41

Season series

VGK leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).