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Golden Knights at Predators
NHL

Vegas Golden Knights at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Vegas Golden Knights
3
Nashville Predators
▸5
FinalTV FDSNSO, SCRIPPS·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Vegas Golden Knights 5-3. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Filip Forsberg's goal at 12:06 of the first period, which took the Predators' chances from 67% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 4.1 to 1.8; shots on goal were VGK 22, NSH 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Ilya Samsonov stopped 18 of 22 (.818), 1.8 goals below expected; Justus Annunen stopped 19 of 22 (.864), 1.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Steven Stamkos (2 G, 1 A), 2. Filip Forsberg (1 G, 1 A), 3. Jonathan Marchessault (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    S. Stamkos2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    F. Forsberg1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    J. Marchessault1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
VGKVGK0128113322
NSHNSH21121012523

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    S. Stamkos(13)
    F. Forsberg (25)
    wristxG 0.51win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    9:44
  2. NSH
    F. Forsberg(12)
    S. Stamkos (14)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    12:06

2nd period

  1. NSH
    J. Barron(2)
    R. Josi (21), G. Nyquist (11)
    slapxG 0.05win prob +9 ptsVideo
    0-3
    5:29
  2. NSH
    S. Stamkos(14)
    J. Marchessault (18)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +4 ptsVideo
    0-4
    8:41
  3. VGK
    P. Dorofeyev(17)
    V. Olofsson (6), T. Hertl (18)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +4 ptsVideo
    1-4
    9:12
  4. VGK
    P. Dorofeyev(18)PPG
    T. Hertl (19), M. Stone (27)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +6 ptsVideo
    2-4
    14:02

3rd period

  1. VGK
    P. Dorofeyev(19)
    V. Olofsson (7), S. Theodore (32)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +8 ptsVideo
    3-4
    15:20
  2. NSH
    R. O'Reilly(13)EN
    C. Sissons (5)
    wristxG 0.76win prob +2 ptsVideo
    3-5
    19:58

Penalties

VGK 2 PIM·NSH 4 PIM

2nd

  • 6:24VGKPavel Dorofeyev · Trippingdrawn by Brady Skjei2 min
  • 13:55NSHVinnie Hinostroza · High stickingdrawn by Ilya Samsonov2 min
  • 18:00NSHSteven Stamkos · Trippingdrawn by William Karlsson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalVGK goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Filip Forsberg, 1st 12:06 — NSH 67% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. O'Reilly · Goal · xG 0.76R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.52S. Stamkos · Goal · xG 0.51C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.39R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.28R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.18J. Marchessault · Missed · xG 0.12M. Jankowski · On goal · xG 0.12N. Blankenburg · On goal · xG 0.12V. Hinostroza · Missed · xG 0.11F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.10M. McCarron · Missed · xG 0.09Z. L'Heureux · Missed · xG 0.08J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.08S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.07F. Svechkov · On goal · xG 0.06S. Stamkos · Goal · xG 0.06B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.05J. Barron · Goal · xG 0.05F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.04L. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.04R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.04T. Novak · On goal · xG 0.03J. Barron · On goal · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · Goal · xG 0.03F. Svechkov · Missed · xG 0.03L. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.03Z. L'Heureux · On goal · xG 0.02T. Novak · On goal · xG 0.02J. Marchessault · Missed · xG 0.02G. Nyquist · On goal · xG 0.02F. Svechkov · On goal · xG 0.02J. Marchessault · Missed · xG 0.01N. Blankenburg · On goal · xG 0.01V. Hinostroza · On goal · xG 0.01S. Stastney · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH5 G · 4.1 xG · 36 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

VGKvsNSH
1.83 G
All situations
4 G4.1
1.32 G
Even strength
4 G1.7
0.51 G
Power play
0 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 70 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
VGK42%58%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.78 – 2.17

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

VGKvsNSH
22
Shots on goal
23
45%
Faceoffs
55%
1/2
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
18
Hits
18
19
Blocked shots
14
16
Giveaways
33
6
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Vegas Golden Knights skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
27S. TheodoreD011+110.00010—25:19
3B. McNabbD000010.00430—21:31
7A. PietrangeloD000-230.11000—21:28
61M. StoneR011-110.30000—20:39
15N. HanifinD000+110.07000—20:08
9J. EichelC000-110.070103619:38
48T. HertlC022+110.020102917:06
16P. DorofeyevR303-140.35022—16:59
49I. BarbashevL000-100.00120—16:21
2Z. WhitecloudD000-300.11010—15:08
14N. HagueD000-310.04340—15:01
71W. KarlssonC000-200.031006714:48
95V. OlofssonL022+220.08010—13:17
21B. HowdenC000-100.102103313:15
10N. RoyC000-220.100005413:02
55K. KolesarR000-200.10320—12:56
70T. PearsonL000-130.27400—11:39
26A. HoltzR000-110.03000—11:17
Vegas Golden Knights goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35I. Samsonov(L)22184.8182.18-1.8258:28

Season series

VGK leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).