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Maple Leafs at Panthers
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
1
Florida Panthers
▸3
FinalTV ESPN, TSN4·Amerant Bank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Florida Panthers beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 3-1. The Panthers scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Eetu Luostarinen's goal at 1:04 of the third period, which took the Panthers' chances from 52% to 76%. Expected goals favored the Panthers, 3.3 to 1.0; shots on goal were TOR 18, FLA 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 81% of the time. Joseph Woll stopped 34 of 36 (.944), 0.6 goals saved above expected; Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 17 of 18 (.944). Three stars: 1. Eetu Luostarinen (1 G), 2. Gustav Forsling (1 G), 3. Sergei Bobrovsky (17 saves, .944).

Three stars

  1. ★
    FLA
    E. Luostarinen1 G
  2. ★★
    FLA
    G. Forsling1 G
  3. ★★★
    FLA
    S. Bobrovsky17 saves, .944

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR051904118
FLAFLA11401429337

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

  1. FLA
    G. Forsling(11)
    A. Lundell (28)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    9:26

2nd period

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(37)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.07win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-1
    1:06

3rd period

  1. FLA
    E. Luostarinen(9)
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.15win prob +24 ptsVideo
    1-2
    1:04
  2. FLA
    C. Verhaeghe(18)EN
    B. Marchand (28), A. Barkov (49)
    wristxG 0.71win prob +2 ptsVideo
    1-3
    19:13

Penalties

TOR 2 PIM·FLA 4 PIM

2nd

  • 2:36TOROliver Ekman-Larsson · High stickingdrawn by Seth Jones2 min
  • 10:36FLASergei Bobrovsky · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

3rd

  • 5:28FLASeth Jones · Trippingdrawn by Matthew Knies2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
FLA goalTOR goalFinal: FLA 100%

Biggest swing: Eetu Luostarinen, 3rd 1:04 — FLA 52% → 76%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Verhaeghe · Goal · xG 0.71A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.29M. Samoskevich · Missed · xG 0.27M. Samoskevich · On goal · xG 0.15E. Luostarinen · Goal · xG 0.15B. Marchand · Missed · xG 0.14A. Barkov · Missed · xG 0.11B. Marchand · On goal · xG 0.11E. Luostarinen · Missed · xG 0.10S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.10A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.09A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.08A. Greer · On goal · xG 0.07J. Puljujarvi · Missed · xG 0.07B. Marchand · On goal · xG 0.07B. Marchand · On goal · xG 0.07C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.06G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.06A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.05E. Luostarinen · Missed · xG 0.04A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.04M. Samoskevich · Missed · xG 0.04T. Nosek · On goal · xG 0.04A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.04C. Verhaeghe · Missed · xG 0.04S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.03G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.03G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.03T. Nosek · Missed · xG 0.02G. Forsling · Missed · xG 0.02J. Gadjovich · On goal · xG 0.02E. Luostarinen · Missed · xG 0.02J. Gadjovich · Missed · xG 0.02N. Schmidt · Missed · xG 0.02A. Barkov · Missed · xG 0.02S. Jones · On goal · xG 0.02G. Forsling · Goal · xG 0.01B. Marchand · On goal · xG 0.01S. Jones · On goal · xG 0.01U. Balinskis · On goal · xG 0.01A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.01A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.01J. Puljujarvi · On goal · xG 0.01G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.01N. Schmidt · On goal · xG 0.01G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.01J. Puljujarvi · On goal · xG 0.01G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.01G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.00S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.00N. Schmidt · On goal · xG 0.00
FLA3 G · 3.3 xG · 52 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsFLA
1.01 G
All situations
2 G3.3
0.71 G
Even strength
2 G1.8
0.30 G
Power play
0 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 76 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR19%81%FLA

Flurry-adjusted xG 0.96 – 2.58

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsFLA
18
Shots on goal
37
31%
Faceoffs
69%
0/2
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
29
Hits
43
18
Blocked shots
11
18
Giveaways
7
6
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
95O. Ekman-LarssonD000020.02132—21:57
44M. RiellyD000-220.07010—21:31
34A. MatthewsC000-110.102204621:17
16M. MarnerR000-100.06220—21:09
23M. KniesL000-130.09120—21:02
25B. CarloD000-100.01010—20:15
8C. TanevD000000.00110—19:22
2S. BenoitD000000.00010—17:39
88W. NylanderR000-200.0900010015:41
91J. TavaresC101-220.231102515:41
11M. DomiC000010.022001415:29
74B. McMannC000-110.10300014:09
19C. JarnkrokC000020.08100013:44
51P. MyersD000010.01020—13:29
24S. LaughtonC000010.0171010012:59
89N. RobertsonL000000.00210—12:13
29P. HolmbergR000010.06000—11:14
18S. LorentzC000010.01600010:46
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Woll(L)36342.9442.64+0.6458:23

Season series

FLA leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).