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Panthers at Maple Leafs
NHL

Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Florida Panthers
2
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸3
FinalTV SCRIPPS, SN·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Florida Panthers 3-2. The Panthers scored first; the Maple Leafs answered. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mitch Marner's goal at 10:50 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 52% to 84%. Expected goals favored the Panthers, 3.0 to 2.5; shots on goal were FLA 31, TOR 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 23 of 26 (.885); Anthony Stolarz stopped 29 of 31 (.935), 1.0 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Anthony Stolarz (29 saves, .935), 2. Mitch Marner (1 G, 1 A), 3. Matthew Knies (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    A. Stolarz29 saves, .935
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Marner1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    M. Knies1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
FLAFLA0711618231
TORTOR01115210326

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. FLA
    G. Forsling(10)
    S. Reinhart (41), S. Bennett (25)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-0
    1:03
  2. TOR
    J. Tavares(36)
    W. Nylander (38)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +19 ptsVideo
    1-1
    11:31

3rd period

  1. TOR
    M. Marner(24)
    A. Matthews (40), M. Knies (25)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +32 ptsVideo
    1-2
    10:50
  2. TOR
    M. Knies(26)
    M. Marner (69), J. McCabe (21)
    backhandxG 0.15win prob +9 ptsVideo
    1-3
    15:09
  3. FLA
    S. Reinhart(37)PPG
    M. Samoskevich (15), S. Jones (24)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +4 ptsVideo
    2-3
    17:22

Penalties

FLA 2 PIM·TOR 4 PIM

1st

  • 16:03FLAUvis Balinskis · Interferencedrawn by Bobby McMann2 min
  • 18:32TORChris Tanev · High stickingdrawn by Brad Marchand2 min

3rd

  • 17:00TORPontus Holmberg · Trippingdrawn by Anton Lundell2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalFLA goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Mitch Marner, 3rd 10:50 — TOR 52% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.20M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.19C. Tanev · On goal · xG 0.17B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.17A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.15M. Marner · Goal · xG 0.15M. Knies · Goal · xG 0.15B. McMann · Missed · xG 0.13M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.13M. Domi · Missed · xG 0.12J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.10W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.10M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.09J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.09B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.08B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.08A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.07J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.05A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.05B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.04O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.03A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.03S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.03M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.02O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Domi · Missed · xG 0.02M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.02S. Laughton · On goal · xG 0.01B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.01J. McCabe · Missed · xG 0.01W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.01P. Holmberg · On goal · xG 0.01S. Laughton · Missed · xG 0.00M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR3 G · 2.5 xG · 34 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

FLAvsTOR
3.02 G
All situations
3 G2.5
2.61 G
Even strength
3 G2.4
0.51 G
Power play
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
FLA59%41%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.01 – 2.52

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

FLAvsTOR
31
Shots on goal
26
52%
Faceoffs
48%
1/2
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
39
Hits
25
7
Blocked shots
21
23
Giveaways
13
3
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Florida Panthers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
3S. JonesD011+120.08510—26:27
42G. ForslingD101+130.07210—21:22
13S. ReinhartC112030.56200021:16
15A. LundellC000050.270106920:14
9S. BennettC011020.221003019:09
23C. VerhaegheC000020.41400019:04
77N. MikkolaD000-220.12300—18:54
63B. MarchandL000-130.08000—17:05
26U. BalinskisD000-210.07412—17:04
88N. SchmidtD000-110.05110—16:50
25M. SamoskevichR011-110.45210—15:49
27E. LuostarinenC000-130.12300015:45
6J. MegnaD000-110.01000—14:22
70J. BoqvistC000-100.0230010013:35
17E. RodriguesC000-100.001005613:32
12J. GadjovichL000010.01310—10:25
10A. GreerL000010.22200—09:53
92T. NosekL000-100.253006309:34
Florida Panthers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
72S. Bobrovsky(L)26233.8852.53-0.4757:40

Season series

FLA leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).