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Maple Leafs at Panthers
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
1
Florida Panthers
▸5
FinalTV SCRIPPS, SN·Amerant Bank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Florida Panthers beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-1. The Panthers scored first and never trailed. The Panthers led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mackie Samoskevich's goal at 5:36 of the first period, which took the Panthers' chances from 66% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Panthers, 2.7 to 1.8; shots on goal were TOR 24, FLA 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Anthony Stolarz stopped 19 of 23 (.826), 2.0 goals below expected; Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 23 of 24 (.958), 0.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Aleksander Barkov (1 G, 1 A), 2. Mackie Samoskevich (1 G), 3. Sergei Bobrovsky (23 saves, .958).

Three stars

  1. ★
    FLA
    A. Barkov1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    FLA
    M. Samoskevich1 G
  3. ★★★
    FLA
    S. Bobrovsky23 saves, .958

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR0911005124
FLAFLA2101925524

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. FLA
    A. Barkov(5)PPG
    A. Ekblad (10), C. Verhaeghe (11)
    slapxG 0.15win prob +9 ptsVideo
    0-1
    4:46
  2. FLA
    M. Samoskevich(4)
    E. Luostarinen (5)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    5:36

2nd period

  1. FLA
    S. Reinhart(17)SHG
    A. Barkov (16)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +9 ptsVideo
    0-3
    17:04
  2. TOR
    M. Marner(9)PPG
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.10win prob +6 ptsVideo
    1-3
    18:31

3rd period

  1. FLA
    C. Verhaeghe(6)PPG
    S. Bennett (11), E. Rodrigues (6)
    wristxG 0.04Video
    1-4
    14:37
  2. FLA
    S. Bennett(10)EN
    C. Verhaeghe (12), M. Tkachuk (11)
    wristxG 0.68Video
    1-5
    18:32

Penalties

TOR 10 PIM·FLA 6 PIM

1st

  • 0:58FLAMatthew Tkachuk · Roughingdrawn by Connor Dewar2 min
  • 3:24TORNikita Grebenkin · Boardingdrawn by Uvis Balinskis2 min

2nd

  • 8:09FLAMatthew Tkachuk · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Anthony Stolarz2 min
  • 12:23TORConor Timmins · Hookingdrawn by Jesper Boqvist2 min
  • 16:50FLAEvan Rodrigues · Holdingdrawn by John Tavares2 min

3rd

  • 7:01TORConor Timmins · High stickingdrawn by Evan Rodrigues2 min
  • 13:20TORWilliam Nylander · High sticking double minordrawn by Nate Schmidt4 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
FLA goalTOR goalFinal: FLA 100%

Biggest swing: Mackie Samoskevich, 1st 5:36 — FLA 66% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Bennett · Goal · xG 0.68J. Boqvist · On goal · xG 0.16A. Barkov · Missed · xG 0.15A. Barkov · Goal · xG 0.15S. Reinhart · Goal · xG 0.15M. Samoskevich · Goal · xG 0.14M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.13S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.12S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.11E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.08E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.08S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.08A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.07S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.06N. Mikkola · On goal · xG 0.05S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.05U. Balinskis · On goal · xG 0.05T. Nosek · Missed · xG 0.04A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.04C. Verhaeghe · Goal · xG 0.04M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.03S. Bennett · Missed · xG 0.03A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.02A. Ekblad · Missed · xG 0.02A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.02N. Mikkola · On goal · xG 0.01G. Forsling · Missed · xG 0.01A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.01G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.01T. Nosek · Missed · xG 0.01M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.01J. Gadjovich · Missed · xG 0.01M. Samoskevich · On goal · xG 0.01A. Ekblad · Missed · xG 0.01M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01A. Greer · On goal · xG 0.01E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.00
FLA5 G · 2.7 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsFLA
1.81 G
All situations
4 G2.7
1.00 G
Even strength
1 G1.0
0.91 G
Power play
2 G0.8
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 69 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR47%53%FLA

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.84 – 1.97

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsFLA
24
Shots on goal
24
60%
Faceoffs
40%
1/3
Power play
2/5
10
Penalty minutes
6
19
Hits
28
20
Blocked shots
11
11
Giveaways
14
7
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
95O. Ekman-LarssonD000-230.20210—23:05
16M. MarnerR101-230.34100—21:30
88W. NylanderR000-330.20004—20:38
44M. RiellyD000-340.07120—20:27
22J. McCabeD000000.00330—19:18
91J. TavaresC000-220.420107119:07
25C. TimminsD000030.05304—18:12
8C. TanevD000000.00050—18:07
29P. HolmbergR000000.000003617:08
2S. BenoitD000000.00240—17:03
39F. MintenC000-210.111106315:08
24C. DewarC000010.052206414:23
89N. RobertsonL000-120.19200—13:27
18S. LorentzC000000.01100013:05
71N. GrebenkinR000-100.01002—11:03
92A. NylanderL000020.190005010:56
74B. McMannC000000.00010010:21
46A. SteevesC000000.00100010:08
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41A. Stolarz(L)23194.8261.97-2.0358:15

Season series

FLA leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).