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Stars at Avalanche
NHL

Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
3
Colorado Avalanche
▸4
Final/OTTV TNT, truTV·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Dallas Stars 4-3 in overtime, Cale Makar scoring at 0:34. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Avalanche led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Cale Makar's goal at 0:34 of overtime, which took the Avalanche's chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.5 to 2.8; shots on goal were DAL 22, COL 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 63% of the time. Jake Oettinger stopped 31 of 35 (.886); Scott Wedgewood stopped 19 of 22 (.864). Three stars: 1. Cale Makar (1 G, 2 A), 2. Valeri Nichushkin (1 G, 1 A), 3. Jonathan Drouin (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    C. Makar1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    V. Nichushkin1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    J. Drouin1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
DALDAL140621200322
COLCOL1122140811435

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    J. Robertson(29)
    R. Hintz (28), M. Rantanen (45)
    wristxG 0.57win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    4:10
  2. COL
    M. Necas(23)PPG
    C. Makar (52), J. Drouin (20)
    tip-inxG 0.15win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-1
    14:09

2nd period

  1. COL
    V. Nichushkin(17)
    D. Toews (26), C. Makar (53)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +17 ptsVideo
    1-2
    6:24
  2. COL
    J. Drouin(10)
    S. Malinski (8), V. Nichushkin (9)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-3
    17:19

3rd period

  1. DAL
    M. Bourque(10)
    J. Benn (25), W. Johnston (37)
    wristxG 0.32win prob +10 ptsVideo
    2-3
    14:12
  2. DAL
    M. Duchene(26)
    E. Lindell (17), M. Marchment (18)
    wristxG 0.39win prob +37 ptsVideo
    3-3
    14:32

Overtime

  1. COL
    C. Makar(25)
    N. MacKinnon (76), B. Nelson (25)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +49 ptsVideo
    3-4
    0:34

Penalties

DAL 10 PIM·COL 2 PIM

1st

  • 1:03DALJamie Benn · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Scott Wedgewood2 min
  • 11:32DALJamie Benn · High sticking double minordrawn by Ryan Lindgren4 min

2nd

  • 2:42COLParker Kelly · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Jake Oettinger2 min
  • 19:44DALMason Marchment · Trippingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min

3rd

  • 5:48DALIlya Lyubushkin · Interferencedrawn by Parker Kelly2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalDAL goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Cale Makar, OT 0:34 — COL 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.29N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.26A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.16V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.16M. Necas · Goal · xG 0.15V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.14C. Makar · Goal · xG 0.14N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.13P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.13P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.12J. Drouin · On goal · xG 0.11R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.11M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.11A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.10R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.10J. Drouin · Missed · xG 0.10M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.09S. Malinski · Missed · xG 0.09A. Lehkonen · Missed · xG 0.07V. Nichushkin · Goal · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.06J. Kiviranta · On goal · xG 0.06M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.05L. O'Connor · Missed · xG 0.05C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.05M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.04J. Drury · Missed · xG 0.04M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.04J. Drury · Missed · xG 0.04N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.03J. Drouin · Goal · xG 0.03R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.03S. Malinski · On goal · xG 0.03C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.03C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.02P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.02E. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.02M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.02M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.02J. Kiviranta · Missed · xG 0.02M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.02D. Toews · Missed · xG 0.02S. Malinski · On goal · xG 0.01J. Kiviranta · Missed · xG 0.01E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.01R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.01D. Toews · Missed · xG 0.01C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.01L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.01J. Kiviranta · On goal · xG 0.01S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.01D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.01R. Lindgren · Missed · xG 0.00S. Malinski · On goal · xG 0.00S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.00
COL4 G · 3.5 xG · 57 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsCOL
2.83 G
All situations
4 G3.5
2.73 G
Even strength
3 G1.9
0.00 G
Power play
1 G1.6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL37%63%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.73 – 3.50

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsCOL
22
Shots on goal
35
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/1
Power play
1/5
10
Penalty minutes
2
26
Hits
28
17
Blocked shots
13
17
Giveaways
15
5
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55T. HarleyD000010.07030—25:39
23E. LindellD011+120.12020—22:46
44C. CeciD000+120.03040—21:46
46I. LyubushkinD000000.03032—21:00
53W. JohnstonC011-110.062106019:54
21J. RobertsonL101+120.62200—19:07
24R. HintzC011+100.000103117:34
96M. RantanenR011020.32000—17:15
64M. GranlundC000+110.12110016:18
95M. DucheneC101+140.530005815:45
6L. BichselD000-120.03600—14:35
27M. MarchmentL011+120.18402—14:33
3M. DumbaD000000.04210—13:08
22M. BourqueC101+120.384003311:46
14J. BennL011010.272164311:18
18S. SteelC000-100.001003311:05
63E. DadonovL000-200.01000—09:57
10O. BäckC000-100.00200009:39
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29J. Oettinger(O)35314.8863.53-0.4760:34

Season series

COL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).