Skip to content
Stars at Avalanche
NHL

Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
3
Colorado Avalanche
▸6
FinalTV Victory+, ALT·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Dallas Stars 6-3. The Stars scored first; the Avalanche answered. The Avalanche led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Artturi Lehkonen's goal at 11:56 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 72% to 88%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.0 to 2.5; shots on goal were DAL 29, COL 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Casey DeSmith stopped 30 of 36 (.833), 3.0 goals below expected; Scott Wedgewood stopped 26 of 29 (.897), 0.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Artturi Lehkonen (2 G, 2 A), 2. Jonathan Drouin (1 G, 2 A), 3. Cale Makar (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    A. Lehkonen2 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    J. Drouin1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    C. Makar2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL1701428329
COLCOL11431329636

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    M. Duchene(18)PPG
    W. Johnston (23), J. Robertson (26)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +9 ptsVideo
    1-0
    3:24
  2. COL
    C. Mittelstadt(9)
    A. Lehkonen (7)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-1
    13:07

2nd period

  1. COL
    C. Makar(14)PPG
    N. MacKinnon (56), M. Rantanen (38)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-2
    10:31
  2. COL
    A. Lehkonen(17)
    J. Drouin (9)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-3
    11:56
  3. COL
    J. Drouin(4)
    A. Lehkonen (8), J. Manson (10)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +7 ptsVideo
    1-4
    18:30

3rd period

  1. COL
    A. Lehkonen(18)
    C. Mittelstadt (19), J. Manson (11)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +1 ptsVideo
    1-5
    8:13
  2. DAL
    J. Robertson(13)
    W. Johnston (24), I. Lyubushkin (9)
    wristxG 0.12Video
    2-5
    11:08
  3. DAL
    J. Robertson(14)PPG
    M. Duchene (25), W. Johnston (25)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +2 ptsVideo
    3-5
    11:47
  4. COL
    C. Makar(15)
    J. Drouin (10), C. Mittelstadt (20)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +2 ptsVideo
    3-6
    13:13

Penalties

DAL 6 PIM·COL 8 PIM

1st

  • 2:46COLJosh Manson · Holdingdrawn by Matěj Blümel2 min
  • 6:46DALColin Blackwell · Trippingdrawn by Calvin de Haan2 min
  • 16:56COLParker Kelly · Hookingdrawn by Logan Stankoven2 min

2nd

  • 6:22DALColin Blackwell · Holdingdrawn by Josh Manson2 min
  • 9:09DALLogan Stankoven · Interferencedrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min
  • 19:51COLJosh Manson · Holdingdrawn by Wyatt Johnston2 min

3rd

  • 11:34COLDevon Toews · Trippingdrawn by Logan Stankoven2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalDAL goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Artturi Lehkonen, 2nd 11:56 — COL 72% → 88%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.17A. Lehkonen · Missed · xG 0.17C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.17J. Drouin · On goal · xG 0.16N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.15M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.14J. Drouin · On goal · xG 0.13C. Makar · Goal · xG 0.13C. Mittelstadt · Goal · xG 0.13J. Kiviranta · Missed · xG 0.10S. Girard · Missed · xG 0.10A. Lehkonen · Missed · xG 0.09A. Lehkonen · Goal · xG 0.08J. Drouin · On goal · xG 0.08A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.08A. Lehkonen · Goal · xG 0.07A. Lehkonen · Missed · xG 0.07J. Drouin · Missed · xG 0.07J. Kiviranta · On goal · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.06L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.05C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.05S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.05N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.04C. Makar · Goal · xG 0.04R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.04A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.03I. Ivan · Missed · xG 0.03S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.03J. Drouin · On goal · xG 0.03K. Middleton · On goal · xG 0.03A. Lehkonen · Missed · xG 0.03C. de Haan · On goal · xG 0.03K. Middleton · Missed · xG 0.03J. Manson · Missed · xG 0.03J. Manson · Missed · xG 0.02D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.02J. Drouin · Goal · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.02C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.02R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.02S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.02K. Middleton · Missed · xG 0.02S. Girard · Missed · xG 0.01J. Kiviranta · On goal · xG 0.01D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.01D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.01K. Middleton · On goal · xG 0.01C. de Haan · Missed · xG 0.01S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.01C. de Haan · On goal · xG 0.01C. de Haan · Missed · xG 0.01C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.00L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.00K. Middleton · On goal · xG 0.00
COL6 G · 3.0 xG · 55 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsCOL
2.53 G
All situations
6 G3.0
1.81 G
Even strength
5 G2.5
0.72 G
Power play
1 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 103 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL41%59%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.44 – 2.98

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsCOL
29
Shots on goal
36
64%
Faceoffs
36%
2/4
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
8
11
Hits
17
23
Blocked shots
17
11
Giveaways
12
5
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4M. HeiskanenD000-220.14020—22:27
23E. LindellD000010.01050—21:41
55T. HarleyD000-220.11030—21:09
53W. JohnstonC033-120.191108320:11
21J. RobertsonL213-160.67000—19:42
46I. LyubushkinD011000.04010—17:49
14J. BennL000-230.2603010017:30
95M. DucheneC112-230.310005417:29
3M. DumbaD000-200.02130—16:31
5N. LundkvistD000-210.05200—16:30
18S. SteelC000-110.01000016:23
22M. BourqueC000-120.081005013:50
63E. DadonovL000-120.24110—13:42
10O. BäckC000010.040205613:36
11L. StankovenC000-210.300026713:16
15C. BlackwellC000000.001245012:10
25M. BlümelR000-110.01200—12:09
49J. HryckowianC000010.02200009:20
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1C. DeSmith(L)36306.8333.02-2.9859:13

Season series

COL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).