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Avalanche at Stars
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
3
Dallas Stars
▸5
FinalTV TNT, MAX·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Colorado Avalanche 5-3. The Stars scored first and never trailed. The Stars led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jamie Benn's goal at 7:07 of the second period, which took the Stars' chances from 70% to 86%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 4.6 to 2.8; shots on goal were COL 32, DAL 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 82% of the time. Alexandar Georgiev stopped 19 of 23 (.826), 1.7 goals below expected; Jake Oettinger stopped 29 of 32 (.906), 1.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Mason Marchment (2 G, 1 A), 2. Tyler Seguin (1 G, 1 A), 3. Mikko Rantanen (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    M. Marchment2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    DAL
    T. Seguin1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    M. Rantanen1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL11407211332
DALDAL2821115524

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    T. Seguin(9)PPG
    M. Marchment (14), M. Duchene (15)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +10 ptsVideo
    0-1
    5:36
  2. COL
    V. Nichushkin(3)PPG
    M. Rantanen (19), C. Makar (23)
    backhandxG 0.16win prob +10 ptsVideo
    1-1
    13:56
  3. DAL
    M. Marchment(8)
    M. Heiskanen (7), T. Seguin (11)
    snapxG 0.30win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-2
    14:28

2nd period

  1. DAL
    J. Benn(5)
    M. Heiskanen (8), S. Steel (7)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-3
    7:07
  2. DAL
    R. Hintz(9)PPG
    W. Johnston (10), J. Benn (8)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +5 ptsVideo
    1-4
    18:42

3rd period

  1. COL
    A. Lehkonen(4)
    N. MacKinnon (29), S. Girard (11)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +6 ptsVideo
    2-4
    1:02
  2. COL
    M. Rantanen(15)
    C. Makar (24)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +14 ptsVideo
    3-4
    8:03
  3. DAL
    M. Marchment(9)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.53win prob +6 ptsVideo
    3-5
    17:17

Penalties

COL 8 PIM·DAL 10 PIM

1st

  • 3:49COLNikolai Kovalenko · Hookingdrawn by Miro Heiskanen2 min
  • 13:07DALWyatt Johnston · Trippingdrawn by Josh Manson2 min
  • 15:17COLserved by Ivan Ivan · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 17:53DALColin Blackwell · Holding the stickdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min

2nd

  • 11:36COLIvan Ivan · High stickingdrawn by Miro Heiskanen2 min
  • 11:57DALJamie Benn · Hookingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min
  • 15:04DALAlexander Petrovic · Roughingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min
  • 18:09COLDevon Toews · High stickingdrawn by Mason Marchment2 min

3rd

  • 8:53DALJamie Benn · Hookingdrawn by Casey Mittelstadt2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalCOL goalFinal: DAL 100%

Biggest swing: Jamie Benn, 2nd 7:07 — DAL 70% → 86%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Marchment · Goal · xG 0.53M. Marchment · Goal · xG 0.30J. Benn · Goal · xG 0.22W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.20R. Hintz · Goal · xG 0.20T. Seguin · Goal · xG 0.15J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.15J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.11M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.10N. Lundkvist · On goal · xG 0.10J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.09N. Lundkvist · Missed · xG 0.08M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.06W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.05R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.05W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.05M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.05T. Seguin · Missed · xG 0.04M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.04R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.04M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.04N. Lundkvist · On goal · xG 0.02E. Lindell · Missed · xG 0.02R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.02S. Steel · Missed · xG 0.02J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.02M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.02M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.02J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.01M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.01M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.01M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.00C. Blackwell · On goal · xG 0.00T. Harley · Missed · xG 0.00
DAL5 G · 2.8 xG · 34 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsDAL
4.63 G
All situations
4 G2.8
2.72 G
Even strength
2 G1.6
1.71 G
Power play
2 G0.6
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL82%18%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.46 – 2.24

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsDAL
32
Shots on goal
24
42%
Faceoffs
58%
1/5
Power play
2/4
8
Penalty minutes
10
20
Hits
20
19
Blocked shots
14
9
Giveaways
11
2
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD022030.45100—30:00
29N. MacKinnonC011-150.510105326:02
96M. RantanenR112-141.061105025:53
7D. ToewsD000020.04002—25:20
13V. NichushkinR101-120.90300—22:42
37C. MittelstadtC000-100.001204321:55
62A. LehkonenL101-130.68100—21:03
49S. GirardD011020.05210—20:43
70S. MalinskiD000030.17040—15:43
51N. KovalenkoR000000.00112—13:15
94J. KivirantaL000010.03400—12:42
25L. O'ConnorR000020.25110—12:34
44C. de HaanD000010.03040—12:34
17P. KellyC000030.231103309:41
82I. IvanC000010.200022009:40
42J. MansonD000-100.00210—07:13
14C. WagnerR000000.002106005:31
38C. BradleyL000000.00010—04:07
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40A. Georgiev(L)23194.8262.27-1.7357:12

Season series

COL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).