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Lightning at Hurricanes
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
1
Carolina Hurricanes
▸4
FinalTV ESPN+, HULU·Lenovo Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-1. The Hurricanes scored first and never trailed. The Hurricanes led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jordan Martinook's goal at 12:56 of the second period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 72% to 88%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 2.8 to 2.6; shots on goal were TBL 24, CAR 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 27 of 31 (.871), 1.2 goals below expected; Pyotr Kochetkov stopped 23 of 24 (.958), 1.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Sean Walker (1 G), 2. Jack Roslovic (1 G), 3. Pyotr Kochetkov (23 saves, .958).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    S. Walker1 G
  2. ★★
    CAR
    J. Roslovic1 G
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    P. Kochetkov23 saves, .958

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL0100618124
CARCAR1821518431

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. CAR
    S. Jarvis(26)SHG
    S. Aho (38)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    4:29

2nd period

  1. CAR
    J. Martinook(12)
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.01win prob +16 ptsVideo
    0-2
    12:56
  2. CAR
    J. Roslovic(20)
    T. Hall (18), J. Chatfield (10)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +7 ptsVideo
    0-3
    19:15

3rd period

  1. TBL
    G. Goncalves(3)
    B. Hagel (41), D. Raddysh (25)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +5 ptsVideo
    1-3
    4:38
  2. CAR
    S. Walker(3)
    J. Staal (21)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +5 ptsVideo
    1-4
    6:26

Penalties

TBL 12 PIM·CAR 4 PIM

1st

  • 2:31CARJackson Blake · Slashingdrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min
  • 10:13TBLYanni Gourde · Hookingdrawn by Taylor Hall2 min
  • 15:30TBLGage Goncalves · Hookingdrawn by Shayne Gostisbehere2 min
  • 15:30CARShayne Gostisbehere · Interferencedrawn by Gage Goncalves2 min

2nd

  • 8:23TBLEmil Lilleberg · Hookingdrawn by Jack Roslovic2 min

3rd

  • 11:13TBLserved by G. Goncalves · Bench2 min
  • 12:15TBLVictor Hedman · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 15:10TBLAndrei Vasilevskiy · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalTBL goalFinal: CAR 100%

Biggest swing: Jordan Martinook, 2nd 12:56 — CAR 72% → 88%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Blake · Missed · xG 0.18M. Jankowski · Missed · xG 0.17S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.15J. Roslovic · Goal · xG 0.14S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.13S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.13S. Walker · On goal · xG 0.13S. Walker · On goal · xG 0.11J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.10S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.10L. Stankoven · On goal · xG 0.10J. Blake · On goal · xG 0.09J. Blake · Missed · xG 0.08J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.08S. Jarvis · Goal · xG 0.08J. Blake · On goal · xG 0.08J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.08S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.07J. Blake · On goal · xG 0.07J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.07J. Slavin · Missed · xG 0.07T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.06E. Robinson · On goal · xG 0.06S. Morrow · Missed · xG 0.06E. Robinson · Missed · xG 0.05T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.05S. Morrow · On goal · xG 0.04B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.04S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.04E. Robinson · Missed · xG 0.04S. Walker · Goal · xG 0.04B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.03J. Kotkaniemi · On goal · xG 0.03S. Morrow · On goal · xG 0.02J. Blake · On goal · xG 0.02T. Hall · Missed · xG 0.02J. Slavin · Missed · xG 0.01S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.01J. Martinook · Goal · xG 0.01S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.01S. Walker · On goal · xG 0.01L. Stankoven · On goal · xG 0.00S. Morrow · Missed · xG 0.00T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.00
CAR4 G · 2.8 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsCAR
2.61 G
All situations
4 G2.8
2.21 G
Even strength
3 G2.3
0.30 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL45%55%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.50 – 2.78

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsCAR
24
Shots on goal
31
58%
Faceoffs
42%
0/1
Power play
0/5
12
Penalty minutes
4
25
Hits
16
17
Blocked shots
16
13
Giveaways
17
4
Takeaways
1

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD000-240.41032—23:08
59J. GuentzelC000-210.203007121:28
27R. McDonaghD000-110.16050—19:18
21B. PointC000-220.362106419:01
81E. CernakD000-100.01200—18:21
37Y. GourdeC000030.135022016:43
90J. MoserD000-110.03130—16:35
71A. CirelliC000-100.241106715:17
86N. KucherovR000-200.08000—15:17
78E. LillebergD000000.00102—14:57
38B. HagelL011-110.1000010014:52
43D. RaddyshD011-200.01110—14:38
22O. BjorkstrandR000000.07100—14:15
11L. GlendeningC000020.013106713:42
28Z. GirgensonsC000020.02400013:22
20N. PaulL000-130.490005012:55
48N. PerbixD000+120.07020—12:22
93G. GoncalvesC101020.1610210011:49
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(L)31274.8712.83-1.1760:00

Season series

TBL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).