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Lightning at Hurricanes
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes

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Tampa Bay Lightning
▸4
Carolina Hurricanes
1
FinalTV ESPN+, HULU·Lenovo Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Carolina Hurricanes 4-1. The Hurricanes scored first; the Lightning answered. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nikita Kucherov's goal at 11:06 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 56% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 3.9 to 3.2; shots on goal were TBL 23, CAR 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 76% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 20 of 21 (.952), 2.9 goals saved above expected; Frederik Andersen stopped 19 of 21 (.905). Three stars: 1. Nikita Kucherov (3 G, 1 A), 2. Jordan Staal (1 G), 3. Victor Hedman (3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov3 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    CAR
    J. Staal1 G
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    V. Hedman3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL0914310423
CARCAR1601104121

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. CAR
    J. Staal(1)
    W. Carrier (1)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-1
    14:32

2nd period

  1. TBL
    B. Point(1)PPG
    N. Kucherov (1), V. Hedman (1)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-1
    2:33

3rd period

  1. TBL
    N. Kucherov(1)PPG
    V. Hedman (2), N. Paul (1)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +26 ptsVideo
    2-1
    11:06
  2. TBL
    N. Kucherov(2)EN
    J. Guentzel (1), E. Cernak (1)
    wristxG 0.54win prob +7 ptsVideo
    3-1
    17:53
  3. TBL
    N. Kucherov(3)EN
    J. Guentzel (2), V. Hedman (3)
    snapxG 0.67Video
    4-1
    19:44

Penalties

TBL 8 PIM·CAR 12 PIM

1st

  • 5:04CARShayne Gostisbehere · High stickingdrawn by Mitchell Chaffee2 min
  • 7:13TBLBrandon Hagel · Holding the stickdrawn by Seth Jarvis2 min

2nd

  • 2:21CARSean Walker · High stickingdrawn by Jake Guentzel2 min
  • 12:48TBLRyan McDonagh · Trippingdrawn by Martin Necas2 min
  • 12:53CARSeth Jarvis · Slashingdrawn by Erik Cernak2 min
  • 16:51TBLMitchell Chaffee · Trippingdrawn by Jackson Blake2 min
  • 19:09CARBrent Burns · Slashingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min

3rd

  • 3:23TBLEmil Lilleberg · Holdingdrawn by Eric Robinson2 min
  • 4:57CARSebastian Aho · Trippingdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons2 min
  • 11:00CARDmitry Orlov · Hookingdrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalTBL goalFinal: CAR 0%

Biggest swing: Nikita Kucherov, 3rd 11:06 — TBL 56% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.55W. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.41A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.26S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.21S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.19A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.19J. Staal · Goal · xG 0.18A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.17E. Robinson · Missed · xG 0.16J. Roslovic · On goal · xG 0.16J. Slavin · Missed · xG 0.15S. Gostisbehere · Missed · xG 0.13M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.11J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.11W. Carrier · Missed · xG 0.10S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.10A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.08A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.07J. Kotkaniemi · Missed · xG 0.06S. Walker · On goal · xG 0.05S. Gostisbehere · Missed · xG 0.04S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.04D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.04S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.04A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.03A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.03J. Slavin · Missed · xG 0.03S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.03B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.03M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.02S. Walker · On goal · xG 0.02S. Walker · Missed · xG 0.02S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.02E. Robinson · Missed · xG 0.02A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.01S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.01B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.01J. Blake · On goal · xG 0.01J. Slavin · Missed · xG 0.01D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.01S. Gostisbehere · Missed · xG 0.00
CAR1 G · 3.9 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsCAR
3.22 G
All situations
1 G3.9
1.30 G
Even strength
1 G3.7
0.82 G
Power play
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 72 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL24%76%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.03 – 3.56

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsCAR
23
Shots on goal
21
47%
Faceoffs
53%
2/6
Power play
0/4
8
Penalty minutes
12
20
Hits
19
19
Blocked shots
11
18
Giveaways
17
3
Takeaways
1

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD033+120.08210—23:11
81E. CernakD011+120.02320—22:00
86N. KucherovR314+261.69110—21:55
27R. McDonaghD000+120.00012—20:40
38B. HagelL000-130.37002—20:28
21B. PointC101+110.170205020:19
71A. CirelliC000020.191004619:10
90J. MoserD000+100.00140—18:54
59J. GuentzelC022+220.231106717:56
20N. PaulL011000.002005717:34
28Z. GirgensonsC000000.00100013:08
41M. ChaffeeR000010.27312—12:13
48N. PerbixD000000.02130—12:09
11L. GlendeningC000010.023103611:50
43D. RaddyshD000-100.08010—10:56
78E. LillebergD000-100.00012—10:48
14C. GeekieC000000.001002510:07
13C. AtkinsonR000-110.1000010008:42
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)21201.9523.90+2.9060:00

Season series

TBL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).