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Hurricanes at Lightning
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
2
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸3
FinalTV FDSNSO, FDSNSUN·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Carolina Hurricanes 3-2. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brayden Point's goal at 19:08 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 52% to 98%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.2 to 1.6; shots on goal were CAR 31, TBL 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 76% of the time. Pyotr Kochetkov stopped 30 of 33 (.909); Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 29 of 31 (.935). Three stars: 1. Brayden Point (1 G), 2. Jordan Staal (1 G, 1 A), 3. Brandon Hagel (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    B. Point1 G
  2. ★★
    CAR
    J. Staal1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    B. Hagel1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CARCAR0911517231
TBLTBL11111319333

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    B. Hagel(18)
    D. Raddysh (12)
    wristxG 0.27win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-1
    16:38

2nd period

  1. CAR
    A. Svechnikov(13)
    J. Staal (13)
    backhandxG 0.02win prob +17 ptsVideo
    1-1
    6:31
  2. TBL
    N. Paul(10)PPG
    D. Raddysh (13), C. Geekie (6)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +17 ptsVideo
    1-2
    9:17

3rd period

  1. CAR
    J. Staal(5)
    B. Burns (10)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +30 ptsVideo
    2-2
    9:56
  2. TBL
    B. Point(24)
    N. Kucherov (39), J. Guentzel (19)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +46 ptsVideo
    2-3
    19:08

Penalties

CAR 10 PIM·TBL 6 PIM

1st

  • 12:09CARJalen Chatfield · Holdingdrawn by Mitchell Chaffee2 min

2nd

  • 3:57CARTy Smith · Trippingdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons2 min
  • 7:18CARBrent Burns · Hookingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min
  • 18:28TBLNikita Kucherov · Hookingdrawn by Brent Burns2 min

3rd

  • 20:00CARSebastian Aho · Slashingdrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min
  • 20:00CARSebastian Aho · Roughingdrawn by Brandon Hagel2 min
  • 20:00TBLAnthony Cirelli · Roughingdrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min
  • 20:00TBLBrandon Hagel · Roughingdrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalCAR goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Brayden Point, 3rd 19:08 — TBL 52% → 98%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Point · On goal · xG 0.37B. Hagel · Goal · xG 0.27B. Point · Missed · xG 0.21B. Point · Goal · xG 0.17N. Paul · Goal · xG 0.17N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.16B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.16B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.15L. Glendening · Missed · xG 0.14B. Point · Missed · xG 0.11N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.10B. Point · On goal · xG 0.09L. Glendening · On goal · xG 0.08B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.08B. Point · On goal · xG 0.08M. Eyssimont · On goal · xG 0.08M. Eyssimont · On goal · xG 0.07J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.06Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.06M. Eyssimont · On goal · xG 0.06A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.05N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.05N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.05J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.04D. Raddysh · Missed · xG 0.04V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.03N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.03N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.02M. Eyssimont · On goal · xG 0.02V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.02N. Perbix · On goal · xG 0.02B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.02N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.02N. Perbix · On goal · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.01M. Eyssimont · On goal · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.01B. Point · On goal · xG 0.01G. Goncalves · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lilleberg · Missed · xG 0.01N. Perbix · On goal · xG 0.00E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.00R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.00
TBL3 G · 3.2 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsTBL
1.62 G
All situations
3 G3.2
1.42 G
Even strength
2 G2.0
0.10 G
Power play
1 G1.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR24%76%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.57 – 3.00

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsTBL
31
Shots on goal
33
58%
Faceoffs
42%
0/1
Power play
1/3
10
Penalty minutes
6
24
Hits
19
13
Blocked shots
14
13
Giveaways
11
2
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
74J. SlavinD000+110.03000—24:11
7D. OrlovD000-240.04310—23:10
8B. BurnsD011+120.07032—20:52
5J. ChatfieldD000-100.01302—19:55
20S. AhoC000-120.082045818:35
24S. JarvisR000-120.111202518:21
48J. MartinookL000+140.070005016:44
26S. WalkerD000010.04310—16:35
11J. StaalC112+130.233005516:24
37A. SvechnikovR101+130.14210—16:23
88M. NecasC000020.361005015:55
42T. SmithD000+130.06002—13:31
50E. RobinsonL000010.07300—13:19
82J. KotkaniemiC000000.040008613:15
53J. BlakeR000010.10000—12:40
96J. RoslovicC000-100.00030012:26
18J. DruryC000000.001007312:03
54J. JaaskaL000020.14220—10:29
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
52P. Kochetkov(L)33303.9093.16+0.1659:13

Season series

TBL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).