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Lightning at Penguins
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸5
Pittsburgh Penguins
2
FinalTV FDSNSUN, SN-PIT·PPG Paints Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Pittsburgh Penguins 5-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Lightning led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nikita Kucherov's goal at 16:57 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 48% to 92%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.3 to 2.9; shots on goal were TBL 19, PIT 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Penguins win a replay of these chances 71% of the time. Jonas Johansson stopped 31 of 33 (.939), 0.9 goals saved above expected; Tristan Jarry stopped 14 of 17 (.824), 1.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nikita Kucherov (2 G, 1 A), 2. Brandon Hagel (1 G, 1 A), 3. Rickard Rakell (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    B. Hagel1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    PIT
    R. Rakell1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL0227310519
PITPIT11401019233

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. PIT
    R. Rakell(22)
    B. Rust (17), M. Pettersson (14)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-1
    14:20

2nd period

  1. TBL
    B. Hagel(20)
    A. Cirelli (19), E. Lilleberg (9)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +17 ptsVideo
    1-1
    6:54
  2. TBL
    N. Kucherov(19)
    V. Hedman (26), J. Guentzel (20)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +22 ptsVideo
    2-1
    16:04

3rd period

  1. PIT
    K. Hayes(7)PPG
    R. Rakell (16), S. Crosby (36)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +22 ptsVideo
    2-2
    2:17
  2. TBL
    N. Kucherov(20)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.13win prob +44 ptsVideo
    3-2
    16:57
  3. TBL
    A. Cirelli(17)EN
    N. Kucherov (42), B. Hagel (28)
    wristxG 0.89win prob +5 ptsVideo
    4-2
    18:48
  4. TBL
    N. Paul(11)EN
    J. Guentzel (21), R. McDonagh (13)
    wristxG 0.77Video
    5-2
    19:39

Penalties

TBL 8 PIM·PIT 2 PIM

1st

  • 8:03TBLVictor Hedman · Trippingdrawn by Anthony Beauvillier2 min

2nd

  • 4:55PITJesse Puljujarvi · Interferencedrawn by Jake Guentzel2 min
  • 4:55TBLVictor Hedman · Roughingdrawn by Jesse Puljujarvi2 min

3rd

  • 1:11TBLDarren Raddysh · High stickingdrawn by Drew O'Connor2 min
  • 6:17TBLAnthony Cirelli · Hookingdrawn by Erik Karlsson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PIT goalTBL goalFinal: PIT 0%

Biggest swing: Nikita Kucherov, 3rd 16:57 — TBL 48% → 92%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Rakell · Goal · xG 0.17S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.16K. Hayes · Missed · xG 0.14B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.14B. Lizotte · Missed · xG 0.12B. Rust · Missed · xG 0.12K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.12R. Rakell · On goal · xG 0.10A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.10R. Rakell · Missed · xG 0.09K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.09B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.09R. Rakell · On goal · xG 0.09S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.08R. Rakell · Missed · xG 0.08K. Hayes · Missed · xG 0.07N. Acciari · Missed · xG 0.07J. Puljujarvi · On goal · xG 0.06R. Rakell · On goal · xG 0.06S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.06J. Puljujarvi · Missed · xG 0.05B. Lizotte · Missed · xG 0.05M. Grzelcyk · Missed · xG 0.05B. Rust · Missed · xG 0.04B. Rust · Missed · xG 0.04C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.04B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.03K. Letang · Missed · xG 0.03A. Beauvillier · Missed · xG 0.03N. Acciari · On goal · xG 0.03S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.03M. Nieto · On goal · xG 0.03R. Rakell · On goal · xG 0.03E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.03S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.02P. Tomasino · Missed · xG 0.02K. Letang · Missed · xG 0.02M. Grzelcyk · Missed · xG 0.02K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.02P. Tomasino · Missed · xG 0.02K. Letang · Missed · xG 0.02N. Acciari · On goal · xG 0.02O. Pickering · Missed · xG 0.02S. Crosby · Missed · xG 0.02K. Hayes · Goal · xG 0.02A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.01S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.01B. Lizotte · On goal · xG 0.01O. Pickering · Missed · xG 0.01K. Letang · Missed · xG 0.01C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.01E. Karlsson · Missed · xG 0.01B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.01K. Hayes · Missed · xG 0.01K. Letang · Missed · xG 0.01D. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.01P. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.01M. Pettersson · Missed · xG 0.01A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.00R. Rakell · On goal · xG 0.00M. Grzelcyk · Missed · xG 0.00
PIT2 G · 2.9 xG · 61 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsPIT
3.33 G
All situations
2 G2.9
1.43 G
Even strength
1 G2.1
0.00 G
Power play
1 G0.8
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL29%71%PIT

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.65 – 2.82

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsPIT
19
Shots on goal
33
46%
Faceoffs
54%
0/0
Power play
1/3
8
Penalty minutes
2
38
Hits
33
15
Blocked shots
11
17
Giveaways
12
2
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
27R. McDonaghD011+200.09100—22:51
81E. CernakD000+200.02510—21:43
38B. HagelL112+260.43040—21:29
77V. HedmanD011+210.09314—20:25
43D. RaddyshD000000.03002—19:11
86N. KucherovR213+330.55100—19:10
78E. LillebergD011+100.00410—19:04
71A. CirelliC112+320.911124318:45
20N. PaulL101+110.773005017:43
21B. PointC000+300.092104017:27
48N. PerbixD000+100.00000—16:51
59J. GuentzelC022+240.2901010016:06
28Z. GirgensonsC000010.04420013:42
11L. GlendeningC000-100.000204413:22
41M. ChaffeeR000000.0060010010:45
23M. EyssimontC000010.01400010:24
13C. AtkinsonR000-100.00200—07:26
93G. GoncalvesC000-100.00210006:30
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31J. Johansson(W)33312.9392.86+0.8660:00

Season series

TBL leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).