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Islanders at Hurricanes
NHL

New York Islanders at Carolina Hurricanes

NHL scoreboard
New York Islanders
3
Carolina Hurricanes
▸5
FinalTV ESPN2, BSSO·PNC Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the New York Islanders 5-3. The Hurricanes came back from three goals down. The Islanders led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Sebastian Aho's goal at 17:45 of the third period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 8% to 52%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 5.3 to 2.1; shots on goal were NYI 12, CAR 39. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 85% of the time. Semyon Varlamov stopped 34 of 38 (.895); Frederik Andersen stopped 9 of 12 (.750), 0.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jordan Martinook (1 G), 2. Seth Jarvis (1 G, 2 A), 3. Sebastian Aho (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    J. Martinook1 G
  2. ★★
    CAR
    S. Jarvis1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    S. Aho1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYINYI271401312
CARCAR010112417539

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. NYI
    K. Palmieri(1)
    M. Reilly (1), B. Nelson (1)
    snapxG 0.63win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-0
    16:22
  2. NYI
    B. Horvat(1)
    M. Barzal (1), C. Cizikas (1)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-0
    19:45

2nd period

  1. NYI
    A. Lee(1)PPG
    J. Pageau (1), P. Engvall (1)
    backhandxG 0.11win prob +9 ptsVideo
    3-0
    3:54
  2. CAR
    T. Teravainen(1)PPG
    J. Guentzel (1), S. Jarvis (1)
    snapxG 0.52win prob +8 ptsVideo
    3-1
    13:01

3rd period

  1. CAR
    S. Jarvis(1)
    J. Staal (1), B. Skjei (3)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +14 ptsVideo
    3-2
    10:43
  2. CAR
    S. Aho(1)
    A. Svechnikov (1), S. Jarvis (2)
    tip-inxG 0.14win prob +44 ptsVideo
    3-3
    17:45
  3. CAR
    J. Martinook(1)
    J. Drury (2)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +43 ptsVideo
    3-4
    17:54
  4. CAR
    J. Guentzel(1)EN
    S. Aho (1), A. Svechnikov (2)
    snapxG 0.87win prob +2 ptsVideo
    3-5
    19:04

Penalties

NYI 83 PIM·CAR 43 PIM

1st

  • 13:23NYIKyle MacLean · Fightingdrawn by Stefan Noesen5 min
  • 13:23CARStefan Noesen · Fightingdrawn by Kyle MacLean5 min
  • 14:31NYIMathew Barzal · Hookingdrawn by Brett Pesce2 min
  • 14:31CARBrett Pesce · Holding the stickdrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min
  • 17:16NYIAdam Pelech · Trippingdrawn by Jesperi Kotkaniemi2 min

2nd

  • 2:38CARDmitry Orlov · Holding the stickdrawn by Pierre Engvall2 min
  • 7:40NYIMathew Barzal · Interferencedrawn by Andrei Svechnikov2 min
  • 12:23NYISemyon Varlamov · Trippingdrawn by Stefan Noesen2 min

3rd

  • 4:32NYICasey Cizikas · Trippingdrawn by Dmitry Orlov2 min
  • 19:04NYIKyle Palmieri · Misconduct10 min
  • 19:04CARJake Guentzel · Misconduct10 min
  • 19:04NYIBrock Nelson · Misconduct10 min
  • 19:20CARStefan Noesen · Roughingdrawn by Matt Martin2 min
  • 19:20NYIRobert Bortuzzo · Roughingdrawn by Jesperi Kotkaniemi2 min
  • 19:20NYIMatt Martin · Roughingdrawn by Stefan Noesen2 min
  • 19:20NYIMatt Martin · Roughingdrawn by Stefan Noesen2 min
  • 19:20CARStefan Noesen · Misconduct10 min
  • 19:20NYIRobert Bortuzzo · Misconduct10 min
  • 19:20NYIMatt Martin · Misconduct10 min
  • 19:20NYICal Clutterbuck · Misconduct10 min
  • 19:51NYICasey Cizikas · Roughingdrawn by Jalen Chatfield2 min
  • 19:51CARJalen Chatfield · Roughingdrawn by Casey Cizikas2 min
  • 19:51NYICasey Cizikas · Misconduct10 min
  • 19:51CARJalen Chatfield · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalNYI goalFinal: CAR 100%

Biggest swing: Sebastian Aho, 3rd 17:45 — CAR 8% → 52%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Guentzel · Goal · xG 0.87T. Teravainen · Goal · xG 0.52J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.20E. Kuznetsov · Missed · xG 0.20J. Chatfield · On goal · xG 0.20S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.17S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.16J. Kotkaniemi · Missed · xG 0.15S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.14J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.14S. Aho · Goal · xG 0.14J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.13S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.13S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.11J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.10J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.10T. Teravainen · Missed · xG 0.09J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.09S. Jarvis · Missed · xG 0.09S. Jarvis · Missed · xG 0.08J. Martinook · Goal · xG 0.08J. Kotkaniemi · On goal · xG 0.08M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.08S. Jarvis · Missed · xG 0.07J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.07J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.07J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.07J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.06J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.06J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.06T. Teravainen · Missed · xG 0.06J. Chatfield · On goal · xG 0.05B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.05J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.05S. Jarvis · Goal · xG 0.04J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.04D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.03J. Slavin · Missed · xG 0.03B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.03J. Chatfield · Missed · xG 0.03J. Drury · On goal · xG 0.03D. Orlov · Missed · xG 0.02D. Orlov · Missed · xG 0.02S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.02J. Chatfield · On goal · xG 0.02D. Orlov · Missed · xG 0.02J. Drury · Missed · xG 0.02J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.02B. Skjei · Missed · xG 0.01J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.01D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.01E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.01J. Chatfield · Missed · xG 0.01J. Chatfield · Missed · xG 0.01E. Kuznetsov · Missed · xG 0.01M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.01D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.01B. Pesce · On goal · xG 0.01J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.01S. Noesen · On goal · xG 0.01J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.01B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.01B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.01B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.01B. Pesce · Missed · xG 0.01S. Noesen · Missed · xG 0.01J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.01B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.00B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.00
CAR5 G · 5.3 xG · 71 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsCAR
2.13 G
All situations
4 G5.3
1.82 G
Even strength
3 G2.8
0.11 G
Power play
1 G1.6
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI15%85%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.93 – 4.30

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsCAR
12
Shots on goal
39
41%
Faceoffs
59%
1/1
Power play
1/5
83
Penalty minutes
43
33
Hits
27
36
Blocked shots
8
2
Giveaways
11
5
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
6R. PulockD000000.00440—23:20
28A. RomanovD000-100.03280—22:50
3A. PelechD000-100.02412—21:06
14B. HorvatC101-130.410005819:24
8N. DobsonD000000.00220—19:18
21K. PalmieriC101041.062110018:53
29B. NelsonC011010.1503103317:30
2M. ReillyD011000.00020—16:50
53C. CizikasC011000.00211410015:47
13M. BarzalC011000.03214015:43
44J. PageauC011-300.001303015:17
41R. BortuzzoD000-100.010612—15:02
27A. LeeL101-310.11400—13:01
10S. HolmstromR000000.00010—12:34
32K. MacLeanC000010.092053812:05
18P. EngvallL011-200.001006711:45
15C. ClutterbuckR000010.175110—10:48
17M. MartinL000010.082214—10:10
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40S. Varlamov(L)38344.8954.40+0.4059:19

Series

CAR leads 4-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).