Carolina Hurricanes at Pittsburgh Penguins
Recap
written from the game dataThe Pittsburgh Penguins beat the Carolina Hurricanes 4-1. The Penguins scored first and never trailed. The Penguins led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Bryan Rust's goal at 18:09 of the second period, which took the Penguins' chances from 53% to 75%. Expected goals favored the Penguins, 3.2 to 2.6; shots on goal were CAR 39, PIT 22. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. Pyotr Kochetkov stopped 18 of 20 (.900); Alex Nedeljkovic stopped 38 of 39 (.974), 1.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Alex Nedeljkovic (38 saves, .974), 2. Jesse Puljujarvi (1 G), 3. Bryan Rust (1 G).
Three stars
- ★A. Nedeljkovic38 saves, .974

- ★★J. Puljujarvi1 G

- ★★★B. Rust1 G

Line score
goals · shots on goal beneathScoring
5 goals2nd period
0-12:41
1-111:17
1-218:09
3rd period
1-318:04
1-419:37
Penalties
1st
- 3:54
Reilly Smith · Hookingdrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min
- 13:30
Andrei Svechnikov · Cross checkingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
- 17:25
Dmitry Orlov · Hookingdrawn by Bryan Rust2 min
3rd
- 3:03
Stefan Noesen · Fightingdrawn by Jonathan Gruden5 min
- 3:03
Jonathan Gruden · Fightingdrawn by Stefan Noesen5 min
- 7:18
Evgeni Malkin · Trippingdrawn by Brady Skjei2 min
Win probability
ours · the whole gameBiggest swing: Bryan Rust, 2nd 18:09 — 53% → 75%
Shot map
unblocked attempts · size = our xGExpected goals
- 2.61 G
- All situations
- 2 G3.2
- 2.21 G
- Even strength
- 2 G1.5
- 0.30 G
- Power play
- 0 G0.1
- 0.00 G
- Shorthanded
- 0 G0.1
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 99 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.
Deserve to win
on the chances createdFlurry-adjusted xG 2.53 – 1.57
How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.
Team stats
- 39
- Shots on goal
- 22
- 47%
- Faceoffs
- 53%
- 0/2
- Power play
- 0/2
- 9
- Penalty minutes
- 9
- 15
- Hits
- 18
- 10
- Blocked shots
- 19
- 10
- Giveaways
- 12
- 11
- Takeaways
- 9
Box score
every player line
Season series
Tied 2-2
2@
4Final
1@
2SOFinal
2@
3OTFinal
1@
4this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).




















