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Penguins at Hurricanes
NHL

Pittsburgh Penguins at Carolina Hurricanes

NHL scoreboard
Pittsburgh Penguins
2
Carolina Hurricanes
▸4
FinalTV SN-PIT, BSSO·PNC Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Pittsburgh Penguins 4-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Seth Jarvis's goal at 11:52 of the third period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 52% to 85%. Expected goals were close — PIT 3.3, CAR 3.5; shots on goal were PIT 28, CAR 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Penguins win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Tristan Jarry stopped 30 of 33 (.909); Antti Raanta stopped 26 of 28 (.929), 1.3 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Seth Jarvis (2 G, 1 A), 2. Antti Raanta (26 saves, .929), 3. Brent Burns (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    S. Jarvis2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    CAR
    A. Raanta26 saves, .929
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    B. Burns1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
PITPIT11105112228
CARCAR011111312434

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. PIT
    S. Crosby(11)
    J. Guentzel (14), E. Karlsson (12)
    backhandxG 0.11win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-0
    10:40

2nd period

  1. CAR
    S. Aho(5)
    T. Teravainen (2), S. Jarvis (6)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +20 ptsVideo
    1-1
    13:06

3rd period

  1. CAR
    B. Burns(4)
    J. Slavin (6), A. Svechnikov (5)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +23 ptsVideo
    1-2
    2:46
  2. PIT
    S. Crosby(12)
    K. Letang (8), B. Rust (7)
    backhandxG 0.21win prob +30 ptsVideo
    2-2
    9:16
  3. CAR
    S. Jarvis(6)
    J. Slavin (7), B. Burns (4)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +33 ptsVideo
    2-3
    11:52
  4. CAR
    S. Jarvis(7)EN
    S. Aho (10), T. Teravainen (3)
    wristxG 0.48win prob +1 ptsVideo
    2-4
    19:22

Penalties

PIT 6 PIM·CAR 4 PIM

1st

  • 18:06PITChad Ruhwedel · High stickingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min

2nd

  • 3:06CARJack Drury · Trippingdrawn by Vinnie Hinostroza2 min
  • 15:22CARAndrei Svechnikov · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Tristan Jarry2 min

3rd

  • 0:44PITJake Guentzel · Slashingdrawn by Teuvo Teravainen2 min
  • 18:47PITErik Karlsson · Trippingdrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalPIT goalFinal: CAR 100%

Biggest swing: Seth Jarvis, 3rd 11:52 — CAR 52% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Jarvis · Goal · xG 0.48S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.25J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.19S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.18S. Aho · Goal · xG 0.16M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.16S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.16S. Jarvis · Missed · xG 0.15S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.14A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.14S. Jarvis · Goal · xG 0.10S. Noesen · Missed · xG 0.08J. Kotkaniemi · On goal · xG 0.07J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.07J. Fast · Missed · xG 0.06B. Skjei · Missed · xG 0.06J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.06B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.05S. Noesen · Missed · xG 0.05T. Teravainen · On goal · xG 0.05B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.05J. Staal · Missed · xG 0.05J. Fast · On goal · xG 0.05S. Noesen · On goal · xG 0.04J. Kotkaniemi · Missed · xG 0.04M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.04S. Jarvis · Missed · xG 0.04B. Skjei · Missed · xG 0.04J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.04S. Noesen · Missed · xG 0.03T. Teravainen · On goal · xG 0.03J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.03J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.03B. Burns · Goal · xG 0.03J. Kotkaniemi · Missed · xG 0.03A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.03B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.03S. Noesen · On goal · xG 0.03B. Skjei · Missed · xG 0.02S. Noesen · Missed · xG 0.02D. Orlov · Missed · xG 0.02M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.02B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.01M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.01J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.01T. DeAngelo · On goal · xG 0.01M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.01B. Pesce · On goal · xG 0.01S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.01S. Noesen · On goal · xG 0.01T. DeAngelo · Missed · xG 0.00J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.00
CAR4 G · 3.5 xG · 52 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

PITvsCAR
3.32 G
All situations
3 G3.5
2.52 G
Even strength
3 G2.8
0.40 G
Power play
0 G0.1
0.40 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
PIT57%43%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.31 – 2.89

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

PITvsCAR
28
Shots on goal
34
53%
Faceoffs
47%
0/2
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
9
Hits
18
12
Blocked shots
14
2
Giveaways
8
6
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Pittsburgh Penguins skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
58K. LetangD011020.04220—24:48
65E. KarlssonD011+130.19002—23:43
27R. GravesD000-120.05010—21:41
28M. PetterssonD000020.04120—21:03
71E. MalkinC000020.190005519:54
17B. RustR011020.61000—18:59
19R. SmithR000020.41010—18:20
59J. GuentzelC011020.17112018:16
87S. CrosbyC202+120.361006717:56
63R. ZohornaL000000.222003315:06
10D. O'ConnorL000-100.00010—14:52
55N. AcciariC000030.601105014:33
67R. RakellR000-140.24010—14:28
20L. EllerC000-110.061104513:20
2C. RuhwedelD000-200.00012—12:45
5R. SheaD000000.00000—11:43
83M. NietoL000000.00000—10:45
13V. HinostrozaC000010.13000003:49
Pittsburgh Penguins goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35T. Jarry(L)33303.9092.97-0.0359:24

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).