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Stars at Predators
NHL

Dallas Stars at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
▸9
Nashville Predators
2
FinalTV ESPN+, HULU·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Nashville Predators 9-2. The Stars scored first and never trailed. The Stars led 7-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Matt Duchene's goal at 4:27 of the first period, which took the Stars' chances from 58% to 73%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 4.4 to 1.4; shots on goal were DAL 41, NSH 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 92% of the time. Jake Oettinger stopped 20 of 22 (.909), 0.8 goals below expected; Kevin Lankinen stopped 18 of 23 (.783), 2.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Matt Duchene (2 G), 2. Wyatt Johnston (2 G, 2 A), 3. Ty Dellandrea (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    M. Duchene2 G
  2. ★★
    DAL
    W. Johnston2 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    T. Dellandrea1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL41831528941
NSHNSH0122107229

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    S. Steel(7)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.05win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-0
    0:35
  2. DAL
    M. Duchene(20)
    M. Marchment (26)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-0
    4:27
  3. DAL
    C. Smith(7)
    S. Steel (11)
    wristxG 0.28win prob +12 ptsVideo
    3-0
    12:31
  4. DAL
    W. Johnston(16)
    T. Dellandrea (4), T. Harley (18)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +7 ptsVideo
    4-0
    15:53

2nd period

  1. DAL
    M. Heiskanen(6)
    W. Johnston (19), T. Dellandrea (5)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +2 ptsVideo
    5-0
    4:40
  2. NSH
    C. Smith(6)
    M. McCarron (6), A. Carrier (11)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +2 pts
    5-1
    9:50
  3. DAL
    T. Seguin(20)PPG
    W. Johnston (20), M. Marchment (27)
    wristxG 0.56win prob +1 ptsVideo
    6-1
    10:51
  4. NSH
    T. Novak(11)
    G. Nyquist (29)
    backhandxG 0.10win prob +1 pts
    6-2
    11:21
  5. DAL
    M. Duchene(21)
    T. Seguin (24), R. Suter (11)
    backhandxG 0.07win prob +1 ptsVideo
    7-2
    19:47

3rd period

  1. DAL
    T. Dellandrea(2)
    J. Robertson (37), R. Suter (12)
    slapxG 0.04Video
    8-2
    3:50
  2. DAL
    W. Johnston(17)PPG
    T. Seguin (25)
    wristxG 0.20Video
    9-2
    8:50

Penalties

DAL 4 PIM·NSH 16 PIM

2nd

  • 7:35DALJani Hakanpää · Trippingdrawn by Jeremy Lauzon2 min
  • 10:23NSHCole Smith · Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min

3rd

  • 4:12DALJamie Benn · Boardingdrawn by Jeremy Lauzon2 min
  • 6:21NSHMichael McCarron · Roughingdrawn by Jamie Benn2 min
  • 6:21NSHMichael McCarron · Roughingdrawn by Jamie Benn2 min
  • 6:21NSHMichael McCarron · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalDAL goalFinal: NSH 0%

Biggest swing: Matt Duchene, 1st 4:27 — DAL 58% → 73%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.13C. Smith · Goal · xG 0.11T. Novak · Goal · xG 0.10F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.10T. Novak · Missed · xG 0.08Y. Trenin · Missed · xG 0.08F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.08R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.07C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.07A. Carrier · Missed · xG 0.05F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.05Y. Trenin · Missed · xG 0.05E. Afanasyev · On goal · xG 0.04A. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.04M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.03C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.03Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.02C. Glass · Missed · xG 0.02C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.02A. Carrier · Missed · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02T. Novak · On goal · xG 0.02D. Gurianov · On goal · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.01T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.01L. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.01D. Gurianov · Missed · xG 0.01M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.01C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.01E. Afanasyev · Missed · xG 0.01L. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01E. Afanasyev · On goal · xG 0.01C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.01L. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.00M. Jankowski · On goal · xG 0.00M. Jankowski · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH2 G · 1.4 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsNSH
4.49 G
All situations
2 G1.4
3.57 G
Even strength
2 G1.1
0.92 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 92 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL92%8%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.35 – 1.36

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsNSH
41
Shots on goal
29
44%
Faceoffs
56%
2/3
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
16
15
Hits
32
18
Blocked shots
12
7
Giveaways
12
5
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
23E. LindellD000+220.09110—25:25
2J. HakanpääD000+130.06322—23:18
55T. HarleyD011+220.18020—23:02
20R. SuterD022+200.00110—22:35
4M. HeiskanenD101+230.16030—21:20
21J. RobertsonL011-140.78120—17:28
53W. JohnstonC224+240.510107316:49
16J. PavelskiC000-130.251003316:09
24R. HintzC000-110.020005015:25
18S. SteelC112+210.050102215:23
12R. FaksaC000+210.092303314:57
10T. DellandreaC123+340.260006714:18
91T. SeguinC123+220.940006714:14
27M. MarchmentL022+210.01100—14:00
95M. DucheneC202+230.311103313:58
14J. BennL000+220.14112—13:13
15C. SmithC101+140.43300012:52
5N. LundkvistD000+110.10000—01:34
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29J. Oettinger(W)22202.9091.20-0.8040:00
41S. Wedgewood7701.0000.17+0.1720:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).