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Stars at Predators
NHL

Dallas Stars at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
▸3
Nashville Predators
2
FinalTV NHLN, BSSW·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Nashville Predators 3-2. The Stars came back from two goals down. The Predators led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jani Hakanpää's goal at 19:56 of the third period, which took the Stars' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 2.8 to 1.6; shots on goal were DAL 34, NSH 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 72% of the time. Scott Wedgewood stopped 19 of 21 (.905); Juuse Saros stopped 31 of 34 (.912). Three stars: 1. Roman Josi, 2. Colton Sissons (1 G), 3. Craig Smith (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    R. Josi
  2. ★★
    NSH
    C. Sissons1 G
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    C. Smith1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL08016310334
NSHNSH0122702221

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. NSH
    M. McCarron(5)
    R. McDonagh (9), P. Tomasino (10)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +15 ptsVideo
    0-1
    0:23
  2. NSH
    C. Sissons(11)PPG
    G. Nyquist (17), R. O'Reilly (14)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-2
    6:33

3rd period

  1. DAL
    E. Dadonov(8)
    E. Lindell (9), R. Hintz (17)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-2
    8:22
  2. DAL
    C. Smith(3)
    J. Robertson (21), J. Pavelski (18)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +46 ptsVideo
    2-2
    19:45
  3. DAL
    J. Hakanpää(1)
    Unassisted
    slapxG 0.02win prob +51 ptsVideo
    3-2
    19:56

Penalties

DAL 4 PIM·NSH 4 PIM

2nd

  • 3:49NSHMichael McCarron · Hookingdrawn by Roope Hintz2 min
  • 6:25DALTyler Seguin · Trippingdrawn by Kiefer Sherwood2 min
  • 17:55NSHMichael McCarron · Holdingdrawn by Jamie Benn2 min

3rd

  • 10:37DALJamie Benn · Hookingdrawn by Philip Tomasino2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalDAL goalFinal: NSH 0%

Biggest swing: Jani Hakanpää, 3rd 19:56 — DAL 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Sissons · Goal · xG 0.18F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.17C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.14M. McCarron · Missed · xG 0.14M. McCarron · Goal · xG 0.12L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.11C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.10R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.07C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.07R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.06T. Novak · Missed · xG 0.06F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.05C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.05R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.04F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.04T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.04Y. Trenin · Missed · xG 0.03C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.03G. Nyquist · Missed · xG 0.02R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.02F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.01T. Novak · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.01L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.01J. Parssinen · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.00R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH2 G · 1.6 xG · 28 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsNSH
2.83 G
All situations
2 G1.6
2.33 G
Even strength
1 G1.2
0.50 G
Power play
1 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 72 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL72%28%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.72 – 1.55

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsNSH
34
Shots on goal
21
58%
Faceoffs
42%
0/2
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
23
Hits
40
12
Blocked shots
27
10
Giveaways
4
2
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4M. HeiskanenD000000.00110—25:03
55T. HarleyD000020.12130—21:08
21J. RobertsonL011+130.27200—19:31
23E. LindellD011+210.00210—19:30
20R. SuterD000-140.10110—19:18
91T. SeguinC000020.220026219:06
95M. DucheneC000+120.182203318:54
2J. HakanpääD101+240.13500—18:30
16J. PavelskiC011+140.331004016:02
27M. MarchmentL000+100.19200—15:58
24R. HintzC011+220.160106015:33
63E. DadonovL101010.10200—15:22
53W. JohnstonC000-140.410006015:16
18S. SteelC000+110.021101713:44
14J. BennL000-110.182029212:53
12R. FaksaC000+100.000006011:49
15C. SmithC101+220.25120010:59
44J. HanleyD000010.12000—10:56
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41S. Wedgewood(W)21192.9051.59-0.4158:20

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).