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Predators at Stars
NHL

Nashville Predators at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
▸6
Dallas Stars
3
FinalTV NHLN, BSSW·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Dallas Stars 6-3. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jeremy Lauzon's goal at 9:22 of the second period, which took the Predators' chances from 47% to 66%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 4.3 to 2.1; shots on goal were NSH 38, DAL 22. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Kevin Lankinen stopped 19 of 22 (.864), 0.9 goals below expected; Jake Oettinger stopped 32 of 36 (.889), 0.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Ryan O'Reilly (1 G, 2 A), 2. Filip Forsberg (1 G, 1 A), 3. Matt Duchene (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    R. O'Reilly1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    F. Forsberg1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    M. Duchene1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH06215417638
DALDAL070738322

Scoring

9 goals

2nd period

  1. NSH
    J. Lauzon(4)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.24win prob +19 ptsVideo
    1-0
    9:22
  2. NSH
    T. Novak(7)
    D. Gurianov (1), R. Josi (25)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +12 ptsVideo
    2-0
    13:51

3rd period

  1. DAL
    J. Hakanpää(2)
    M. Duchene (25), T. Seguin (17)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-1
    1:09
  2. NSH
    R. O'Reilly(16)
    F. Forsberg (25)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +18 ptsVideo
    3-1
    3:41
  3. DAL
    W. Johnston(11)
    N. Lundkvist (12), T. Harley (11)
    wristxG 0.24win prob +16 ptsVideo
    3-2
    8:11
  4. NSH
    F. Forsberg(22)PPG
    R. Josi (26), R. O'Reilly (21)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +11 ptsVideo
    4-2
    10:08
  5. DAL
    M. Duchene(13)PPG
    J. Robertson (27), J. Pavelski (21)
    slapxG 0.14win prob +10 ptsVideo
    4-3
    13:36
  6. NSH
    G. Nyquist(11)EN
    R. Josi (27), R. O'Reilly (22)
    wristxG 0.52win prob +7 ptsVideo
    5-3
    17:27
  7. NSH
    J. Parssinen(7)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.54Video
    6-3
    19:29

Penalties

NSH 6 PIM·DAL 10 PIM

1st

  • 4:22DALMason Marchment · Trippingdrawn by Alexandre Carrier2 min

2nd

  • 12:03NSHCole Smith · Trippingdrawn by Joe Pavelski2 min
  • 12:51DALJamie Benn · High sticking double minordrawn by Jeremy Lauzon4 min

3rd

  • 4:10NSHCole Smith · Trippingdrawn by Wyatt Johnston2 min
  • 9:49DALTyler Seguin · Hookingdrawn by Luke Evangelista2 min
  • 12:05NSHFilip Forsberg · Boardingdrawn by Jani Hakanpää2 min
  • 14:43DALJoel Hanley · Trippingdrawn by Tommy Novak2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalNSH goalFinal: DAL 0%

Biggest swing: Jeremy Lauzon, 2nd 9:22 — NSH 47% → 66%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.27W. Johnston · Goal · xG 0.24M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.17J. Hakanpää · Goal · xG 0.14M. Duchene · Goal · xG 0.14R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.12R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.11M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.10M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.09J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.07R. Faksa · Missed · xG 0.07T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.07T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.06J. Pavelski · Missed · xG 0.06R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.05M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.05T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.04C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.04M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.03E. Dadonov · Missed · xG 0.03E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.02N. Lundkvist · On goal · xG 0.02J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.02J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.02R. Suter · On goal · xG 0.02N. Lundkvist · On goal · xG 0.02S. Steel · Missed · xG 0.01J. Hakanpää · Missed · xG 0.01J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.01J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.01N. Lundkvist · On goal · xG 0.01J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.01J. Hanley · Missed · xG 0.01E. Lindell · Missed · xG 0.01J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.01E. Dadonov · Missed · xG 0.00R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.00J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL3 G · 2.1 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsDAL
4.34 G
All situations
3 G2.1
2.03 G
Even strength
2 G1.3
0.91 G
Power play
1 G0.8
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH68%32%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.14 – 2.13

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsDAL
38
Shots on goal
22
40%
Faceoffs
60%
1/5
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
10
35
Hits
24
18
Blocked shots
15
3
Giveaways
21
4
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59R. JosiD033+110.04200—23:24
27R. McDonaghD000+320.03020—23:04
9F. ForsbergL112+150.46202—19:57
3J. LauzonD101+130.26700—19:44
14G. NyquistR101+230.9310010019:03
90R. O'ReillyC123+150.581204118:45
45A. CarrierD000010.06010—18:19
10C. SissonsC000+140.463305618:09
2L. SchennD000+110.01320—15:48
57D. FabbroD000010.05000—14:10
13Y. TreninC000+110.145005014:05
36C. SmithR000-120.33324—13:51
82T. NovakC101+220.080004513:33
47M. McCarronC000-100.013101113:27
75J. ParssinenC101010.543102013:03
15D. GurianovR011+220.04200—12:57
77L. EvangelistaR000010.01000—12:03
26P. TomasinoR000030.24040—11:07
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32K. Lankinen(W)22193.8642.13-0.8760:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).