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Predators at Stars
NHL

Nashville Predators at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
▸4
Dallas Stars
3
FinalTV BSSW, BSSO·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Dallas Stars 4-3. The Predators scored first and never trailed. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Filip Forsberg's goal at 2:42 of the third period, which took the Predators' chances from 48% to 73%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 3.1 to 1.9; shots on goal were NSH 22, DAL 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. Kevin Lankinen stopped 26 of 29 (.897); Scott Wedgewood stopped 18 of 22 (.818), 2.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Filip Forsberg (2 G), 2. Jason Robertson (1 G, 1 A), 3. Gustav Nyquist (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    F. Forsberg2 G
  2. ★★
    DAL
    J. Robertson1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    G. Nyquist1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH191825422
DALDAL0621518329

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    G. Nyquist(10)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.15win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-0
    11:26

2nd period

  1. NSH
    L. Evangelista(7)
    T. Novak (13), C. Smith (11)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-0
    7:22
  2. DAL
    T. Seguin(14)
    M. Duchene (24), M. Marchment (17)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-1
    9:29
  3. DAL
    J. Benn(8)PPG
    T. Harley (9), J. Robertson (26)
    tip-inxG 0.16win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-2
    19:14

3rd period

  1. NSH
    F. Forsberg(20)
    G. Nyquist (22), R. O'Reilly (19)
    backhandxG 0.19win prob +26 ptsVideo
    3-2
    2:42
  2. NSH
    F. Forsberg(21)
    R. O'Reilly (20), L. Schenn (4)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.05win prob +16 ptsVideo
    4-2
    7:30
  3. DAL
    J. Robertson(13)
    J. Hanley (2), T. Harley (10)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +14 ptsVideo
    4-3
    10:21

Penalties

NSH 4 PIM·DAL 2 PIM

1st

  • 11:50DALEsa Lindell · Interferencedrawn by Yakov Trenin2 min
  • 19:02NSHAlexandre Carrier · Trippingdrawn by Jason Robertson2 min

2nd

  • 2:27NSHLuke Schenn · Ps hooking on breakawaydrawn by Mason Marchment0 min
  • 19:09NSHJuuso Parssinen · Interferencedrawn by Jamie Benn2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalNSH goalFinal: DAL 0%

Biggest swing: Filip Forsberg, 3rd 2:42 — NSH 48% → 73%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.34M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.22J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.18T. Seguin · Goal · xG 0.17R. Faksa · Missed · xG 0.17E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.17J. Benn · Goal · xG 0.16M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.15J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.13J. Robertson · Goal · xG 0.11J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.11M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.08W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.07M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.07R. Faksa · Missed · xG 0.07T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.06M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.06M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.06E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.06J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.06R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.05W. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.05C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.04J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.04M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.04E. Dadonov · Missed · xG 0.04E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.04J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.03M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.03E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.03C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.03T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.02T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.02S. Steel · On goal · xG 0.02T. Seguin · Missed · xG 0.02R. Suter · Missed · xG 0.02E. Dadonov · Missed · xG 0.01S. Steel · On goal · xG 0.01N. Lundkvist · Missed · xG 0.01R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.01J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.01T. Harley · Missed · xG 0.01T. Harley · Missed · xG 0.01R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.01
DAL3 G · 3.1 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsDAL
1.94 G
All situations
3 G3.1
1.74 G
Even strength
2 G2.2
0.20 G
Power play
1 G0.9
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH31%69%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.93 – 2.99

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsDAL
22
Shots on goal
29
41%
Faceoffs
59%
0/1
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
2
33
Hits
20
23
Blocked shots
15
9
Giveaways
7
5
Takeaways
13

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59R. JosiD000010.03130—24:18
27R. McDonaghD000+110.02040—23:16
3J. LauzonD000+110.02320—19:56
90R. O'ReillyC022+320.111103119:12
9F. ForsbergL202+340.3150010018:43
14G. NyquistR112+320.23020—18:32
45A. CarrierD000+100.00022—18:07
57D. FabbroD000000.00140—18:03
10C. SissonsC000010.053007017:42
75J. ParssinenC000000.04502016:08
15D. GurianovR000020.18100—14:27
2L. SchennD011+100.00210—14:17
13Y. TreninC000-110.18300014:01
36C. SmithR011020.14410—13:54
77L. EvangelistaR101010.18100—12:27
47M. McCarronC000-120.122203012:02
82T. NovakC011000.10000811:41
26P. TomasinoR000-120.21110—11:09
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32K. Lankinen(W)29263.8973.10+0.1060:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).