Flyers at Panthers 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Philadelphia Flyers

▸2

Florida Panthers

FinalTV NBCSP, BSFL·Amerant Bank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Philadelphia Flyers beat the Florida Panthers 2-1. The Panthers scored first; the Flyers answered. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Noah Cates's goal at 2:36 of the third period, which took the Flyers' chances from 48% to 73%. Expected goals favored the Flyers, 2.7 to 2.4; shots on goal were PHI 25, FLA 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flyers win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Samuel Ersson stopped 20 of 21 (.952), 1.4 goals saved above expected; Anthony Stolarz stopped 23 of 25 (.920), 0.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Noah Cates (1 G), 2. Travis Konecny (1 G), 3. Carter Verhaeghe (1 G).

Three stars

★
N. Cates1 G
★★
T. Konecny1 G
★★★
C. Verhaeghe1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	05	112	18	225
FLA	110	08	03	121

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

C. Verhaeghe(25)PPG
Unassisted
wristxG 0.07win prob +9 ptsVideo
0-1
9:22

2nd period

T. Konecny(23)
J. Farabee (24), S. Walker (13)
wristxG 0.20win prob +20 ptsVideo
1-1
13:33

3rd period

N. Cates(2)
Unassisted
wristxG 0.18win prob +26 ptsVideo
2-1
2:36

Penalties

6 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

9:08Nick Seeler · Trippingdrawn by Jonah Gadjovich2 min

2nd

3:18Kevin Stenlund · Trippingdrawn by Garnet Hathaway2 min
20:00Travis Konecny · Slashingdrawn by Gustav Forsling2 min
20:00Gustav Forsling · Slashingdrawn by Travis Konecny2 min

3rd

11:16Owen Tippett · Boardingdrawn by Niko Mikkola2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: FLA

Biggest swing: Noah Cates, 3rd 2:36 — PHI 48% → 73%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.4 xG · 43 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 2.7 xG · 45 att FLA

1 G · 2.4 xG · 43 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.72 G
All situations: 1 G2.4; 2.72 G
Even strength: 0 G2.1; 0.00 G
Power play: 1 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

57%43%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.72 – 2.35

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

25
Shots on goal: 21; 58%
Faceoffs: 42%; 0/1
Power play: 1/2; 6
Penalty minutes: 4; 31
Hits: 31; 22
Blocked shots: 10; 9
Giveaways: 15; 2
Takeaways: 5

Box score

every player line

Philadelphia Flyers skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
11T. KonecnyR	1	0	1	+2	3	0.53	1	0	2	—	22:10
6T. SanheimD	0	0	0	0	1	0.12	1	1	0	—	19:40
25R. PoehlingC	0	0	0	0	1	0.21	5	2	0	22	18:46
55R. RistolainenD	0	0	0	0	2	0.08	2	2	0	—	18:32
74O. TippettR	0	0	0	0	3	0.43	0	0	2	—	17:52
14S. CouturierC	0	0	0	+1	3	0.16	3	0	0	83	17:36
89C. AtkinsonR	0	0	0	0	1	0.28	1	0	0	—	17:28
9J. DrysdaleD	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	0	0	0	—	17:12
86J. FarabeeL	0	1	1	+1	3	0.23	2	0	0	—	17:04
8C. YorkD	0	0	0	0	1	0.16	2	2	0	—	17:02
26S. WalkerD	0	1	1	+2	0	0.02	2	3	0	—	16:57
71T. FoersterR	0	0	0	0	2	0.07	0	0	0	—	15:23
24N. SeelerD	0	0	0	+2	0	0.00	2	6	2	—	15:18
27N. CatesL	1	0	1	+1	2	0.31	2	0	0	—	14:59
5E. ZamulaD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	3	0	—	14:46
48M. FrostC	0	0	0	0	1	0.07	2	1	0	60	14:32
21S. LaughtonC	0	0	0	+1	1	0.02	3	1	0	33	11:49
19G. HathawayR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	1	0	100	08:40

Philadelphia Flyers goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
33S. Ersson(W)	21	20	1	.952	2.37	+1.37	60:00

Season series

PHI leads 2-1

Feb 62@1this game
Mar 72@1Final
Mar 244@1Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Philadelphia Flyers at Florida Panthers

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score