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Maple Leafs at Panthers
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸2
Florida Panthers
1
FinalFLA Live Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Florida Panthers 2-1. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mitch Marner's goal at 10:03 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 81% to 95%. Expected goals were close — TOR 2.6, FLA 2.8; shots on goal were TOR 25, FLA 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Joseph Woll stopped 24 of 25 (.960), 1.8 goals saved above expected; Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 23 of 25 (.920), 0.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Mitch Marner (1 G, 1 A), 2. Joseph Woll (24 saves, .960), 3. Sergei Bobrovsky (23 saves, .920).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    M. Marner1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    J. Woll24 saves, .960
  3. ★★★
    FLA
    S. Bobrovsky23 saves, .920

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR0611514225
FLAFLA0708110125

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(3)PPG
    M. Bunting (1), M. Marner (11)
    backhandxG 0.22win prob +14 pts
    1-0
    3:29

3rd period

  1. TOR
    M. Marner(3)
    J. McCabe (2)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +15 pts
    2-0
    10:03
  2. FLA
    S. Reinhart(6)PPG
    M. Tkachuk (11), S. Bennett (4)
    pokexG 0.30win prob +11 pts
    2-1
    12:13

Penalties

TOR 16 PIM·FLA 26 PIM

1st

  • 18:06TORJustin Holl · Cross checkingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min

2nd

  • 2:12FLAEetu Luostarinen · High stickingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 8:22FLAAleksander Barkov · Holdingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min
  • 12:53TORTJ Brodie · Holding the stickdrawn by Anton Lundell2 min

3rd

  • 11:10TORAlexander Kerfoot · Trippingdrawn by Marc Staal2 min
  • 20:00FLASam Reinhart · Roughingdrawn by Noel Acciari2 min
  • 20:00FLACarter Verhaeghe · Roughingdrawn by Morgan Rielly2 min
  • 20:00FLABrandon Montour · Roughingdrawn by Noel Acciari2 min
  • 20:00TORMorgan Rielly · Roughingdrawn by Sam Bennett2 min
  • 20:00TORNoel Acciari · Roughingdrawn by Brandon Montour2 min
  • 20:00FLAAleksander Barkov · Roughingdrawn by David Kampf2 min
  • 20:00FLAMatthew Tkachuk · Roughingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min
  • 20:00TORMitch Marner · Roughingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min
  • 20:00TORJake McCabe · Roughingdrawn by Brandon Montour2 min
  • 20:00TORDavid Kampf · Roughingdrawn by Aleksander Barkov2 min
  • 20:00FLASam Bennett · Roughingdrawn by Jake McCabe2 min
  • 20:00FLASam Bennett · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
FLA goalTOR goalFinal: FLA 0%

Biggest swing: Mitch Marner, 3rd 10:03 — TOR 81% → 95%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.41S. Reinhart · Goal · xG 0.30S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.19S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.19A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.18M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.18S. Bennett · Missed · xG 0.14S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.14S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.12C. Verhaeghe · Missed · xG 0.11C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.10S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.10B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.07A. Lundell · Missed · xG 0.06A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.06S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.05B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.05J. Mahura · On goal · xG 0.05N. Cousins · Missed · xG 0.05A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.04A. Ekblad · Missed · xG 0.03A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.03A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.02R. Gudas · Missed · xG 0.02M. Staal · On goal · xG 0.02A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.01R. Gudas · On goal · xG 0.01B. Montour · Missed · xG 0.01B. Montour · Missed · xG 0.01C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.01G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.01M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.01A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.01J. Mahura · On goal · xG 0.00S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.00A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.00
FLA1 G · 2.8 xG · 36 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsFLA
2.62 G
All situations
1 G2.8
1.81 G
Even strength
0 G1.7
0.61 G
Power play
1 G1.1
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 72 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR48%52%FLA

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.58 – 2.69

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsFLA
25
Shots on goal
25
62%
Faceoffs
38%
1/2
Power play
1/3
16
Penalty minutes
26
26
Hits
21
21
Blocked shots
9
11
Giveaways
5
9
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
16M. MarnerR112+130.42412—21:23
3J. HollD000010.00112—21:22
78T. BrodieD000000.02012—21:09
34A. MatthewsC000+140.601303320:37
44M. RiellyD000020.02022—20:14
90R. O'ReillyC000+110.051105618:18
88W. NylanderR101040.34000—17:17
91J. TavaresC000050.4401010016:22
37T. LiljegrenD000+100.02100—16:19
15A. KerfootC000010.07012015:46
52N. AcciariC000000.00732015:13
19C. JarnkrokC000000.00010014:45
2L. SchennD000000.01120—14:40
22J. McCabeD011+100.00512—13:55
64D. KampfC000030.530027813:52
28S. LaffertyC000000.0031010012:05
58M. BuntingL011010.10200—11:48
55M. GiordanoD000000.00020—09:52
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Woll(W)25241.9602.81+1.8160:00

Series

FLA leads 4-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).