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Maple Leafs at Panthers
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
Florida Panthers
▸3
Final/OTFLA Live Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Florida Panthers beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 3-2 in overtime, Sam Reinhart scoring at 3:02. The Maple Leafs scored first; the Panthers answered. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Sam Reinhart's goal at 3:02 of overtime, which took the Panthers' chances from 52% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Panthers, 3.4 to 2.4; shots on goal were TOR 24, FLA 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Joseph Woll stopped 18 of 21 (.857), 0.6 goals below expected; Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 22 of 24 (.917). Three stars: 1. Sam Reinhart (1 G), 2. Anthony Duclair (1 G), 3. Sergei Bobrovsky (22 saves, .917).

Three stars

  1. ★
    FLA
    S. Reinhart1 G
  2. ★★
    FLA
    A. Duclair1 G
  3. ★★★
    FLA
    S. Bobrovsky22 saves, .917

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TORTOR141901100224
FLAFLA072140711329

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    S. Lafferty(1)
    D. Kampf (2), M. Rielly (8)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    2:26

2nd period

  1. FLA
    A. Duclair(2)PPG
    A. Ekblad (2)
    wristxG 0.29win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    2:36
  2. TOR
    E. Gustafsson(1)
    W. Nylander (6), J. McCabe (1)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +18 pts
    2-1
    7:32
  3. FLA
    C. Verhaeghe(4)
    R. Gudas (2), J. Mahura (1)
    deflectedxG 0.05win prob +20 pts
    2-2
    12:28

Overtime

  1. FLA
    S. Reinhart(5)
    A. Lundell (6), A. Ekblad (3)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.06win prob +48 pts
    2-3
    3:02

Penalties

TOR 4 PIM·FLA 0 PIM

2nd

  • 0:37TORLuke Schenn · Trippingdrawn by Carter Verhaeghe2 min
  • 18:33TORMorgan Rielly · Holdingdrawn by Anthony Duclair2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
FLA goalTOR goalFinal: FLA 100%

Biggest swing: Sam Reinhart, OT 3:02 — FLA 52% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Duclair · Goal · xG 0.29S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.24S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.23S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.19S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.18A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.18A. Barkov · Missed · xG 0.15A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.15E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.15A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.14A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.13A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.10B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.10C. White · On goal · xG 0.09M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.08C. White · Missed · xG 0.08A. Lundell · Missed · xG 0.07S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.07A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.07A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.06S. Reinhart · Goal · xG 0.06Z. Dalpe · On goal · xG 0.05N. Cousins · Missed · xG 0.05C. Verhaeghe · Goal · xG 0.05C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.05M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.04G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.04C. Verhaeghe · Missed · xG 0.04B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.02M. Staal · Missed · xG 0.02G. Forsling · Missed · xG 0.02A. Lundell · Missed · xG 0.02C. Verhaeghe · Missed · xG 0.02R. Gudas · On goal · xG 0.02G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.02B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.02A. Ekblad · Missed · xG 0.02A. Duclair · Missed · xG 0.01M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.01J. Mahura · On goal · xG 0.01M. Staal · Missed · xG 0.01J. Mahura · Missed · xG 0.01A. Ekblad · Missed · xG 0.01S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.01S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.00Z. Dalpe · On goal · xG 0.00M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.00
FLA3 G · 3.4 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsFLA
2.42 G
All situations
3 G3.4
2.42 G
Even strength
2 G2.5
0.00 G
Power play
1 G0.9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR34%66%FLA

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.39 – 3.34

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsFLA
24
Shots on goal
29
61%
Faceoffs
39%
0/0
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
0
26
Hits
26
24
Blocked shots
16
14
Giveaways
12
3
Takeaways
14

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
78T. BrodieD000-100.00000—26:40
16M. MarnerR000-120.06020—21:37
44M. RiellyD011+120.05212—20:55
34A. MatthewsC000-120.493305020:22
22J. McCabeD011-210.09100—20:08
2L. SchennD000020.01412—19:42
3J. HollD000+100.03140—19:25
90R. O'ReillyC000000.120204418:51
88W. NylanderR011+110.13000—18:29
15A. KerfootC000000.02110017:22
91J. TavaresC000-120.234106416:45
58M. BuntingL000020.22310—16:06
64D. KampfC011+130.280109315:04
19C. JarnkrokC000020.18110014:34
52N. AcciariC000010.25310013:46
56E. GustafssonD101+130.14120—12:27
28S. LaffertyC101+110.102005011:11
55M. GiordanoD000000.00030—07:47
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Woll(L)21183.8572.43-0.5742:25
35I. Samsonov8801.0000.97+0.9720:37

Series

FLA leads 4-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).