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Maple Leafs at Lightning
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
Tampa Bay Lightning
3
FinalTV TVAS, TSN4·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-3. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Calle Jarnkrok's goal at 16:56 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 50% to 72%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 4.4 to 2.9; shots on goal were TOR 24, TBL 48. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 72% of the time. Joseph Woll stopped 45 of 48 (.938), 1.4 goals saved above expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 20 of 24 (.833), 1.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. William Nylander (1 G, 2 A), 2. Joseph Woll (45 saves, .938), 3. Mikhail Sergachev (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    W. Nylander1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    J. Woll45 saves, .938
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    M. Sergachev1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR2121814424
TBLTBL114119115348

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(39)PPG
    R. O'Reilly (13), C. Jarnkrok (19)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +10 pts
    1-0
    12:48
  2. TBL
    A. Killorn(26)
    M. Sergachev (52), S. Stamkos (50)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    13:59
  3. TOR
    L. Schenn(4)
    N. Acciari (9)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +14 pts
    2-1
    16:01

2nd period

  1. TBL
    N. Perbix(5)
    B. Point (43), N. Kucherov (82)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +8 pts
    2-2
    5:21
  2. TOR
    C. Jarnkrok(20)PPG
    J. Tavares (44), W. Nylander (46)
    wristxG 0.26win prob +22 pts
    3-2
    16:56

3rd period

  1. TOR
    R. O'Reilly(16)
    M. Knies (1), W. Nylander (47)
    wristxG 0.24win prob +14 pts
    4-2
    12:33
  2. TBL
    M. Sergachev(10)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.07win prob +11 pts
    4-3
    13:49

Penalties

TOR 28 PIM·TBL 24 PIM

1st

  • 0:11TBLAlex Killorn · Cross checkingdrawn by Morgan Rielly2 min
  • 0:32TORMorgan Rielly · Interferencedrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min
  • 10:24TORJake McCabe · Interferencedrawn by Michael Eyssimont2 min
  • 12:06TBLAlex Killorn · Cross checkingdrawn by TJ Brodie2 min
  • 18:50TBLPatrick Maroon · Fightingdrawn by Luke Schenn5 min
  • 18:50TORLuke Schenn · Fightingdrawn by Patrick Maroon5 min
  • 18:50TBLPatrick Maroon · Roughingdrawn by Luke Schenn2 min
  • 20:00TORRyan O'Reilly · Roughingdrawn by Pierre-Edouard Bellemare2 min

2nd

  • 4:20TBLCorey Perry · Fightingdrawn by Michael Bunting5 min
  • 4:20TORMichael Bunting · Fightingdrawn by Corey Perry5 min
  • 6:08TBLBrandon Hagel · Roughingdrawn by Noel Acciari2 min
  • 12:38TORNoel Acciari · Holdingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min
  • 15:20TORMatthew Knies · High stickingdrawn by Brandon Hagel2 min
  • 16:02TBLNikita Kucherov · Trippingdrawn by TJ Brodie2 min
  • 16:16TBLMichael Eyssimont · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Timothy Liljegren2 min
  • 18:31TORMichael Bunting · Roughingdrawn by Pierre-Edouard Bellemare2 min

3rd

  • 7:11TBLNick Paul · Roughingdrawn by Morgan Rielly2 min
  • 7:11TORMorgan Rielly · Interferencedrawn by Ross Colton2 min
  • 7:11TORMorgan Rielly · Roughingdrawn by Nick Paul2 min
  • 18:03TORTJ Brodie · Cross checkingdrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalTOR goalFinal: TBL 0%

Biggest swing: Calle Jarnkrok, 2nd 16:56 — TOR 50% → 72%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Point · Missed · xG 0.27S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.24N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.23N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.19A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.17B. Point · On goal · xG 0.17B. Point · On goal · xG 0.16N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.16A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.14B. Point · On goal · xG 0.13C. Perry · Missed · xG 0.13B. Point · Missed · xG 0.11B. Point · On goal · xG 0.11N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.10S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.10N. Perbix · Goal · xG 0.10N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.09B. Point · On goal · xG 0.09B. Point · On goal · xG 0.09A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.08B. Point · On goal · xG 0.08B. Point · Missed · xG 0.07A. Killorn · Goal · xG 0.07B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.07M. Sergachev · Goal · xG 0.07M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.06M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.06N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.06M. Eyssimont · Missed · xG 0.06S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.05V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.05N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.05N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.05N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.05R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.04M. Eyssimont · On goal · xG 0.04S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.04S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.04M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.04D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.04I. Cole · Missed · xG 0.04N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.03I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.03V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.03N. Perbix · On goal · xG 0.03M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.02V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.02R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.02V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.02B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.02N. Perbix · Missed · xG 0.02A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.01N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.01V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.01D. Raddysh · Missed · xG 0.01N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.01V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.01V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.00D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.00M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.00N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL3 G · 4.4 xG · 63 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsTBL
2.94 G
All situations
3 G4.4
2.02 G
Even strength
3 G2.0
0.82 G
Power play
0 G2.3
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 98 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR28%72%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.74 – 4.24

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsTBL
24
Shots on goal
48
47%
Faceoffs
53%
2/6
Power play
0/8
28
Penalty minutes
24
23
Hits
29
17
Blocked shots
6
3
Giveaways
10
13
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
78T. BrodieD000-110.01112—22:55
3J. HollD000-100.00410—21:55
90R. O'ReillyC112+120.400026220:21
19C. JarnkrokC112-120.34000020:17
22J. McCabeD000+110.04242—20:10
91J. TavaresC011-130.652002518:19
88W. NylanderR123+150.60000—18:06
44M. RiellyD000-100.02206—17:44
15A. KerfootC000020.230005016:50
37T. LiljegrenD000010.01120—16:07
64D. KampfC000-110.080105315:45
2L. SchennD101010.06535—15:12
58M. BuntingL000-200.00117—14:30
52N. AcciariC011+110.051222514:24
23M. KniesL011+130.32012—12:13
12Z. Aston-ReeseL000-200.05310—10:46
25C. TimminsD000010.02100—08:29
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Woll(W)48453.9384.36+1.3660:00

Season series

TOR leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).