Skip to content
Lightning at Maple Leafs
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
1
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
FinalTV BSSUNX, TSN4·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-1. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Vladislav Namestnikov's goal at 4:09 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 7% to 22%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 4.6 to 1.3; shots on goal were TBL 19, TOR 40. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 78% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 36 of 38 (.947), 1.0 goals saved above expected; Matt Murray stopped 18 of 19 (.947). Three stars: 1. Michael Bunting (1 G), 2. Auston Matthews (1 G), 3. Matt Murray (18 saves, .947).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    M. Bunting1 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    M. Murray18 saves, .947

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL0404111119
TORTOR115114211440

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    M. Bunting(8)
    W. Nylander (17)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +14 pts
    0-1
    16:45

2nd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(17)PPG
    R. Sandin (12), M. Marner (26)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    1:01

3rd period

  1. TBL
    V. Namestnikov(2)
    S. Stamkos (21)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    4:09
  2. TOR
    P. Engvall(6)EN
    D. Kampf (9), M. Giordano (8)
    wristxG 0.65win prob +4 pts
    1-3
    18:14
  3. TOR
    W. Nylander(19)EN
    C. Jarnkrok (5)
    wristxG 0.94
    1-4
    19:28

Penalties

TBL 6 PIM·TOR 6 PIM

1st

  • 19:42TBLIan Cole · Trippingdrawn by William Nylander2 min
  • 20:00TBLPierre-Edouard Bellemare · Roughingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 20:00TORMichael Bunting · Roughingdrawn by Pierre-Edouard Bellemare2 min

2nd

  • 5:49TBLNikita Kucherov · Interferencedrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 10:28TORTimothy Liljegren · Hookingdrawn by Steven Stamkos2 min

3rd

  • 20:00TORTimothy Liljegren · High stickingdrawn by Vladislav Namestnikov2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalTBL goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Vladislav Namestnikov, 3rd 4:09 — TBL 7% → 22%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.94P. Engvall · Goal · xG 0.65W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.19A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.19J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.17M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.15J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.14J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.11J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.11W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.10J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.10J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.10W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.09C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.09M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.09M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.09A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.08J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.08M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.08M. Bunting · Goal · xG 0.07A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.07A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.06P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.06A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.06Z. Aston-Reese · On goal · xG 0.06M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.06M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.05A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.05P. Holmberg · Missed · xG 0.05A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.04J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.04A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.04M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.04M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.03A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.03M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.03M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.03C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.03W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.02M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.02T. Liljegren · Missed · xG 0.01T. Liljegren · On goal · xG 0.01W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.01M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.01T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.01C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.01D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.01W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.01J. Holl · Missed · xG 0.01W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR4 G · 4.6 xG · 50 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsTOR
1.31 G
All situations
2 G4.6
1.31 G
Even strength
1 G2.0
0.00 G
Power play
1 G1.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL22%78%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.32 – 2.89

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsTOR
19
Shots on goal
40
49%
Faceoffs
51%
0/1
Power play
1/2
6
Penalty minutes
6
33
Hits
20
5
Blocked shots
14
11
Giveaways
9
4
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD000010.07020—23:41
98M. SergachevD000-100.08100—22:48
81E. CernakD000010.02210—21:41
21B. PointC000-220.380002920:24
38B. HagelL000000.00100—20:07
28I. ColeD000020.07202—19:47
71A. CirelliC000-220.170005017:17
48N. PerbixD000020.05000—16:54
86N. KucherovR000-230.15102—16:48
20N. PaulL000-100.002006716:22
17A. KillornL000-110.01100—15:36
91S. StamkosC011-110.028006715:04
10C. PerryR000-200.00100—13:09
24Z. BogosianD000-100.00520—12:40
90V. NamestnikovC101+120.16000012:25
41P. BellemareL000010.013025012:08
79R. ColtonC000010.09500010:35
14P. MaroonL000000.07100—10:05
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(L)38362.9473.02+1.0259:10

Season series

TOR leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).