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Maple Leafs at Lightning
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸4
Final/OTTV NHLN, BSSUN·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-3 in overtime, Alex Killorn scoring at 0:33. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Maple Leafs led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Alex Killorn's goal at 0:33 of overtime, which took the Lightning's chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals were close — TOR 3.9, TBL 3.8; shots on goal were TOR 39, TBL 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Matt Murray stopped 29 of 33 (.879); Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 36 of 39 (.923), 0.9 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Alex Killorn (1 G), 2. Mitch Marner (2 G), 3. Corey Perry (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    A. Killorn1 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Marner2 G
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    C. Perry2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TORTOR0122191800339
TBLTBL01111121011433

Scoring

7 goals

2nd period

  1. TOR
    M. Marner(9)SHG
    D. Kampf (7)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +18 pts
    1-0
    5:18
  2. TBL
    V. Namestnikov(1)
    A. Cirelli (1), E. Cernak (3)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +18 pts
    1-1
    7:40
  3. TOR
    W. Nylander(14)
    A. Matthews (16), M. Bunting (12)
    backhandxG 0.12win prob +22 pts
    2-1
    16:50

3rd period

  1. TBL
    N. Kucherov(11)PPG
    S. Stamkos (16), C. Perry (6)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +24 pts
    2-2
    1:51
  2. TBL
    R. Colton(6)PPG
    M. Sergachev (19), C. Perry (7)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +23 pts
    2-3
    4:34
  3. TOR
    M. Marner(10)PPG
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.12win prob +26 pts
    3-3
    11:55

Overtime

  1. TBL
    A. Killorn(8)
    A. Cirelli (2)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +49 pts
    3-4
    0:33

Penalties

TOR 16 PIM·TBL 14 PIM

1st

  • 3:52TORMac Hollowell · Holdingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min
  • 10:30TBLIan Cole · Cross checkingdrawn by Nick Robertson2 min
  • 14:58TBLBrandon Hagel · Cross checkingdrawn by Justin Holl2 min
  • 19:05TORPontus Holmberg · Trippingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min

2nd

  • 2:25TBLIan Cole · Interferencedrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 4:52TORWayne Simmonds · Interferencedrawn by Zach Bogosian2 min
  • 17:10TBLNikita Kucherov · Interferencedrawn by Justin Holl2 min
  • 17:10TORMichael Bunting · High stickingdrawn by Erik Cernak2 min
  • 17:10TBLErik Cernak · Roughingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 19:48TORZachary Aston-Reese · Hookingdrawn by Nick Perbix2 min
  • 19:48TBLNick Perbix · Holding the stickdrawn by Zachary Aston-Reese2 min

3rd

  • 0:04TORMitch Marner · Trippingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min
  • 2:51TORTimothy Liljegren · Interferencedrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min
  • 7:29TORAlexander Kerfoot · Trippingdrawn by Brandon Hagel2 min
  • 11:37TBLMikhail Sergachev · High stickingdrawn by John Tavares2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalTOR goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Alex Killorn, OT 0:33 — TBL 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.19N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.18R. Colton · Goal · xG 0.17B. Point · Missed · xG 0.17A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.15V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.14V. Namestnikov · Goal · xG 0.14C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.14S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.13C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.13A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.12B. Point · On goal · xG 0.12N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.12A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.11S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.10S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.10V. Namestnikov · Missed · xG 0.10P. Bellemare · On goal · xG 0.09B. Point · Missed · xG 0.09P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.08P. Bellemare · On goal · xG 0.08P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.08R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.08V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.08R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.07C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.07N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.06A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.06V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.06S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.06N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.05B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.05A. Killorn · Goal · xG 0.05S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.05N. Kucherov · Goal · xG 0.05P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.04S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.04Z. Bogosian · On goal · xG 0.03M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.03A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.03N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.03V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.02V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.01N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.01I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.01E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.01I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.01E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.01N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.00I. Cole · Missed · xG 0.00
TBL4 G · 3.8 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsTBL
3.93 G
All situations
4 G3.8
2.11 G
Even strength
2 G2.3
1.51 G
Power play
2 G1.3
0.21 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 99 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR51%49%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.84 – 3.79

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsTBL
39
Shots on goal
33
61%
Faceoffs
39%
1/5
Power play
2/6
16
Penalty minutes
14
31
Hits
20
10
Blocked shots
11
5
Giveaways
10
8
Takeaways
14

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
3J. HollD000+100.00510—25:59
55M. GiordanoD000+210.19130—25:08
16M. MarnerR202050.71102—21:51
38R. SandinD000-240.22410—21:00
88W. NylanderR101060.64010—20:10
34A. MatthewsC011-180.761106120:09
37T. LiljegrenD000000.00302—19:24
91J. TavaresC000030.560107217:26
58M. BuntingL011000.00312—14:57
64D. KampfC011+120.072004414:10
98V. MeteD000000.00100—13:36
89N. RobertsonL000030.15310—13:35
15A. KerfootC000010.01002013:21
47P. EngvallL000010.1320010012:46
12Z. Aston-ReeseL000010.15202—10:24
81M. HollowellD000020.02102—10:10
24W. SimmondsR000010.02202—07:13
29P. HolmbergR000010.240028306:50
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30M. Murray(O)33294.8793.83-0.1760:33

Season series

TOR leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).