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Avalanche at Ducks
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Anaheim Ducks

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸5
Anaheim Ducks
4
Final/OTTV ALT, SN·Honda Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Anaheim Ducks 5-4 in overtime, Nathan MacKinnon scoring at 4:15. The Avalanche came back from two goals down. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nathan MacKinnon's goal at 4:15 of overtime, which took the Avalanche's chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 5.3 to 1.4; shots on goal were COL 46, ANA 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 95% of the time. Pavel Francouz stopped 19 of 23 (.826), 2.6 goals below expected; Lukas Dostal stopped 41 of 46 (.891). Three stars: 1. Nathan MacKinnon (2 G, 1 A), 2. Frank Vatrano (2 G), 3. Mikko Rantanen (2 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    ANA
    F. Vatrano2 G
  3. ★★★
    COL
    M. Rantanen2 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
COLCOL1711721814546
ANAANA09282600423

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    J. Compher(17)
    V. Nichushkin (29), E. Johnson (8)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    10:15

2nd period

  1. COL
    M. Rantanen(53)
    S. Girard (30), D. Toews (39)
    backhandxG 0.08win prob +18 pts
    2-0
    13:58
  2. ANA
    F. Vatrano(21)
    T. Zegras (40), R. Strome (25)
    slapxG 0.08win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    15:15
  3. ANA
    A. Henrique(22)
    C. Fowler (36)
    backhandxG 0.12win prob +23 pts
    2-2
    18:09

3rd period

  1. ANA
    F. Vatrano(22)
    T. Terry (36), K. Shattenkirk (22)
    snapxG 0.03win prob +27 pts
    2-3
    5:18
  2. ANA
    B. Leason(6)
    D. Grant (13), J. Megna (6)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +15 pts
    2-4
    7:25
  3. COL
    M. Rantanen(54)PPG
    N. MacKinnon (68), D. Toews (40)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +10 pts
    3-4
    12:09
  4. COL
    N. MacKinnon(38)PPG
    M. Rantanen (47), V. Nichushkin (30)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +38 pts
    4-4
    15:28

Overtime

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(39)PPG
    D. Toews (41), M. Rantanen (48)
    slapxG 0.15win prob +51 pts
    5-4
    4:15

Penalties

COL 6 PIM·ANA 26 PIM

1st

  • 5:14COLDevon Toews · Hookingdrawn by Mason McTavish2 min
  • 10:33COLAndrew Cogliano · Hookingdrawn by Drew Helleson2 min
  • 11:39ANAJakob Silfverberg · Hookingdrawn by Devon Toews2 min
  • 12:57ANANathan Beaulieu · Trippingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min
  • 14:12ANADerek Grant · High sticking double minordrawn by Samuel Girard4 min

3rd

  • 2:49COLJ.T. Compher · Hookingdrawn by Trevor Zegras2 min
  • 11:40ANATrevor Zegras · Hookingdrawn by Samuel Girard2 min
  • 13:07ANAMax Jones · Trippingdrawn by Devon Toews2 min
  • 15:02ANADerek Grant · Trippingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min

OT

  • 3:53ANAFrank Vatrano · Interferencedrawn by Evan Rodrigues2 min
  • 4:15ANAFrank Vatrano · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
ANA goalCOL goalFinal: ANA 0%

Biggest swing: Nathan MacKinnon, OT 4:15 — COL 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
I. Lundeström · On goal · xG 0.16A. Henrique · Goal · xG 0.12A. Henrique · Missed · xG 0.11B. Leason · Goal · xG 0.10D. Grant · On goal · xG 0.10F. Vatrano · Goal · xG 0.08M. McTavish · On goal · xG 0.08A. Henrique · On goal · xG 0.07F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.07T. Zegras · On goal · xG 0.06T. Terry · On goal · xG 0.05B. Leason · On goal · xG 0.04D. Helleson · Missed · xG 0.04T. Zegras · On goal · xG 0.03F. Vatrano · Goal · xG 0.03T. Terry · Missed · xG 0.03C. Fowler · On goal · xG 0.03J. Silfverberg · On goal · xG 0.03K. Shattenkirk · On goal · xG 0.02C. Fowler · Missed · xG 0.02D. Helleson · On goal · xG 0.02F. Vatrano · Missed · xG 0.02C. Fowler · On goal · xG 0.01F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.01C. White · On goal · xG 0.01J. Megna · Missed · xG 0.01A. Henrique · On goal · xG 0.01J. Silfverberg · On goal · xG 0.00D. Helleson · On goal · xG 0.00
ANA4 G · 1.4 xG · 29 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsANA
5.35 G
All situations
4 G1.4
2.92 G
Even strength
4 G1.0
2.23 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 94 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL95%5%ANA

Flurry-adjusted xG 5.27 – 1.35

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsANA
46
Shots on goal
23
52%
Faceoffs
48%
3/8
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
26
9
Hits
11
14
Blocked shots
15
10
Giveaways
4
7
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
7D. ToewsD033-240.32012—30:12
96M. RantanenR224-140.440108625:19
29N. MacKinnonC213-191.650001825:15
49S. GirardD011-240.18030—24:56
37J. CompherL101-130.480025223:42
13V. NichushkinR022040.46010—22:37
3J. JohnsonD000010.02230—21:34
6E. JohnsonD011020.12220—21:20
9E. RodriguesC000040.46000017:45
83M. NietoL000-110.09000—13:32
20L. EllerC000-140.480106312:07
18A. NewhookC000-100.12000011:17
25L. O'ConnorR000020.25200—10:47
17B. HuntD000010.01000—10:44
11A. CoglianoC000000.000125710:12
81D. MalginC000020.17100009:46
59B. MeyersC000010.05110009:04
56K. MacDermidL000000.00100—06:58
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39P. Francouz(W)23194.8261.36-2.6464:15

Season series

COL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).