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Ducks at Avalanche
NHL

Anaheim Ducks at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Anaheim Ducks
▸5
Colorado Avalanche
3
FinalTV ALT, BSW·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Anaheim Ducks beat the Colorado Avalanche 5-3. The Ducks came back from two goals down. The Avalanche led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mason McTavish's goal at 10:06 of the third period, which took the Ducks' chances from 48% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 4.3 to 2.6; shots on goal were ANA 32, COL 44. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 81% of the time. John Gibson stopped 41 of 44 (.932), 1.3 goals saved above expected; Pavel Francouz stopped 27 of 31 (.871), 1.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Frank Vatrano (3 G), 2. Mason McTavish (1 G), 3. Mikko Rantanen (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    ANA
    F. Vatrano3 G
  2. ★★
    ANA
    M. McTavish1 G
  3. ★★★
    COL
    M. Rantanen2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
ANAANA17111314532
COLCOL118213013344

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    M. Rantanen(33)
    D. Toews (24), C. Makar (31)
    wristxG 0.31win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    3:56
  2. ANA
    F. Vatrano(9)
    C. Fowler (18)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    9:46

2nd period

  1. COL
    S. Girard(4)
    N. MacKinnon (40), E. Rodrigues (15)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +16 pts
    1-2
    1:13
  2. COL
    M. Rantanen(34)PPG
    S. Girard (11), D. Malgin (4)
    slapxG 0.11win prob +14 pts
    1-3
    16:09
  3. ANA
    F. Vatrano(10)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.18win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    18:37

3rd period

  1. ANA
    A. Henrique(18)
    T. Terry (29), S. Benoit (3)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +30 pts
    3-3
    9:42
  2. ANA
    M. McTavish(10)
    J. Silfverberg (7), D. Kulikov (8)
    snapxG 0.01win prob +33 pts
    4-3
    10:06
  3. ANA
    F. Vatrano(11)EN
    C. Fowler (19)
    wristxG 0.46win prob +3 pts
    5-3
    19:10

Penalties

ANA 4 PIM·COL 4 PIM

2nd

  • 12:20ANASam Carrick · Trippingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min
  • 14:37ANAJohn Gibson · Delaying game2 min

3rd

  • 1:54COLMatt Nieto · Hookingdrawn by Troy Terry2 min
  • 12:42COLArtturi Lehkonen · High stickingdrawn by Dmitry Kulikov2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalANA goalFinal: COL 0%

Biggest swing: Mason McTavish, 3rd 10:06 — ANA 48% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.31L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.27A. Newhook · On goal · xG 0.22J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.22D. Malgin · On goal · xG 0.19N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.19L. O'Connor · Missed · xG 0.19A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.18B. Meyers · On goal · xG 0.16M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.15E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.13E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.12S. Girard · Goal · xG 0.11M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.11M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.10A. Newhook · On goal · xG 0.09M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.08E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.08N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.08M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.07N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.07D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.07A. Newhook · Missed · xG 0.07M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.06D. Malgin · Missed · xG 0.06S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.06E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.05E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.05A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.05C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.05J. Compher · Missed · xG 0.05M. Nieto · On goal · xG 0.04S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.04D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.04J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.04C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.04C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.04A. Englund · On goal · xG 0.04E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.04C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.04A. Cogliano · On goal · xG 0.03D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.02A. Newhook · Missed · xG 0.02S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.02E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.02S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.02D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.02A. Cogliano · On goal · xG 0.01E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Nieto · On goal · xG 0.01N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.01D. Malgin · Missed · xG 0.01S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.01S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.01D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.01E. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.01E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.01S. Girard · Missed · xG 0.01
COL3 G · 4.3 xG · 58 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

ANAvsCOL
2.64 G
All situations
3 G4.3
1.84 G
Even strength
2 G3.7
0.30 G
Power play
1 G0.6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 97 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
ANA19%81%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.14 – 4.25

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

ANAvsCOL
32
Shots on goal
44
45%
Faceoffs
55%
0/2
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
15
Hits
14
15
Blocked shots
12
7
Giveaways
10
5
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Anaheim Ducks skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4C. FowlerD022+420.04010—25:14
3J. KlingbergD000-200.00110—21:13
29D. KulikovD011+330.04210—20:44
14A. HenriqueC101+130.310005718:29
5U. VaakanainenD000-210.02330—17:54
13S. BenoitD011+200.00200—17:50
11T. ZegrasC000020.131103317:47
33J. SilfverbergR011+210.11000—17:29
16R. StromeC000-120.150002516:59
19T. TerryR011020.19120—16:38
37M. McTavishC101+230.301205316:32
77F. VatranoR303+380.88110—15:52
21I. LundestromC000+200.000004215:50
44M. ComtoisL000-120.19110—14:16
45C. WhiteD000+110.02210—13:42
49M. JonesL000020.20010—10:49
7J. MegnaC000000.010007509:40
39S. CarrickC000+100.060025009:30
Anaheim Ducks goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
36J. Gibson(W)44413.9324.32+1.3260:00

Season series

COL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).