Maple Leafs at Senators 3-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Toronto Maple Leafs

▸3

Ottawa Senators

FinalTV SN, CBC·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Ottawa Senators 3-0. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was William Nylander's goal at 12:56 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 67% to 85%. Expected goals were close — TOR 2.2, OTT 2.2; shots on goal were TOR 20, OTT 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Ilya Samsonov stopped 31 of 31 (1.000), 2.2 goals saved above expected; Mads Sogaard stopped 13 of 16 (.813), 1.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Ilya Samsonov (31 saves, 1.000), 2. Mark Giordano, 3. Radim Zohorna (1 G).

Three stars

★
I. Samsonov31 saves, 1.000
★★
M. Giordano
★★★
R. Zohorna1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	05	311	04	320
OTT	010	08	013	031

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

M. Bunting(22)
Unassisted
wristxG 0.08win prob +16 pts
1-0
1:23
W. Nylander(37)
A. Kerfoot (22)
snapxG 0.20win prob +18 pts
2-0
12:56
R. Zohorna(1)
J. McCabe (20), T. Brodie (11)
wristxG 0.05win prob +8 pts
3-0
18:09

Penalties

4 PIM·

2 PIM

1st

6:21Luke Schenn · Interferencedrawn by Mathieu Joseph2 min

2nd

4:14Artem Zub · Holdingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min

3rd

12:33William Nylander · Hookingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: OTT

Biggest swing: William Nylander, 2nd 12:56 — TOR 67% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 2.2 xG · 50 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 2.2 xG · 27 att OTT

0 G · 2.2 xG · 50 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.23 G
All situations: 0 G2.2; 1.63 G
Even strength: 0 G1.4; 0.20 G
Power play: 0 G0.7; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 77 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

40%60%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.72 – 2.22

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

20
Shots on goal: 31; 45%
Faceoffs: 55%; 0/1
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 2; 30
Hits: 38; 22
Blocked shots: 12; 4
Giveaways: 10; 2
Takeaways: 1

Box score

every player line

Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
34A. MatthewsC	0	0	0	0	3	0.20	3	2	0	25	23:19
16M. MarnerR	0	0	0	0	0	0.14	0	0	0	—	21:50
78T. BrodieD	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	1	2	0	—	21:15
22J. McCabeD	0	1	1	+1	1	0.01	2	1	0	—	20:12
44M. RiellyD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.47	2	1	0	—	18:50
91J. TavaresC	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	0	0	58	18:46
19C. JarnkrokC	0	0	0	+1	1	0.09	0	0	0	100	17:33
15A. KerfootC	0	1	1	+1	3	0.29	1	1	0	100	17:20
64D. KampfC	0	0	0	+2	0	0.00	0	0	0	58	17:14
3J. HollD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	2	0	—	16:40
55M. GiordanoD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	2	6	0	—	16:15
88W. NylanderR	1	0	1	+1	2	0.49	2	0	2	—	16:02
28S. LaffertyC	0	0	0	+1	1	0.03	2	0	0	0	14:01
2L. SchennD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	6	3	2	—	13:22
12Z. Aston-ReeseL	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	4	2	0	—	12:41
58M. BuntingL	1	0	1	+1	1	0.13	2	0	0	—	12:17
37T. LiljegrenD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.02	0	1	0	—	12:08
53R. ZohornaL	1	0	1	+1	4	0.26	1	1	0	—	06:15

Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
35I. Samsonov(W)	31	31	0	1.000	2.24	+2.24	60:00

Season series

TOR leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators

2nd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score