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Senators at Maple Leafs
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
▸6
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
FinalTV CBC, SN·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 6-2. The Senators scored first and never trailed. The Senators led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Drake Batherson's goal at 16:37 of the second period, which took the Senators' chances from 69% to 87%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.9 to 3.3; shots on goal were OTT 34, TOR 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Anton Forsberg stopped 31 of 33 (.939), 1.9 goals saved above expected; Ilya Samsonov stopped 28 of 34 (.824), 2.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Brady Tkachuk (2 G), 2. Tim Stützle (2 A), 3. Claude Giroux (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    B. Tkachuk2 G
  2. ★★
    OTT
    T. Stützle2 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    C. Giroux1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT11431228634
TORTOR11511206233

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    T. Chabot(8)
    T. Stützle (24), E. Brannstrom (4)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +9 pts
    1-0
    1:32
  2. TOR
    J. Anderson(2)
    A. Kerfoot (16), J. Holl (8)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    7:15

2nd period

  1. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(18)
    T. Hamonic (5), T. Stützle (25)
    tip-inxG 0.04win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    0:23
  2. TOR
    W. Nylander(27)PPG
    J. Tavares (28), M. Marner (40)
    wristxG 0.40win prob +13 pts
    2-2
    2:44
  3. OTT
    D. Brassard(7)PPG
    C. Giroux (27), J. Sanderson (17)
    deflectedxG 0.12win prob +15 pts
    3-2
    9:57
  4. OTT
    D. Batherson(15)
    S. Pinto (8)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +18 pts
    4-2
    16:37

3rd period

  1. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(19)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.22win prob +7 pts
    5-2
    3:31
  2. OTT
    C. Giroux(17)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.25
    6-2
    14:53

Penalties

OTT 8 PIM·TOR 12 PIM

1st

  • 0:37OTTBrady Tkachuk · Roughingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 0:37TORMichael Bunting · Roughingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min
  • 7:33TORPontus Holmberg · High sticking double minordrawn by Jake Sanderson4 min
  • 11:16OTTserved by B. Tkachuk · Too many men on the ice2 min

2nd

  • 1:30OTTNikita Zaitsev · Trippingdrawn by Pontus Holmberg2 min
  • 8:26TORPontus Holmberg · Trippingdrawn by Claude Giroux2 min
  • 11:37TORMichael Bunting · Boardingdrawn by Alex DeBrincat2 min
  • 17:30OTTTim Stützle · Trippingdrawn by Mark Giordano2 min

3rd

  • 10:45TORRasmus Sandin · Trippingdrawn by Mathieu Joseph2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalOTT goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Drake Batherson, 2nd 16:37 — OTT 69% → 87%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.40D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.31B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.23M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.17M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.17J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.16J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.15B. McMann · Missed · xG 0.15J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.14W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.12M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.12J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.12M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.12J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.10C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.10J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.10A. Kerfoot · Missed · xG 0.08M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.08R. Sandin · Missed · xG 0.07M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.07P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.07W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.07A. Kerfoot · Missed · xG 0.07T. Liljegren · Missed · xG 0.06M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.06Z. Aston-Reese · Missed · xG 0.06J. Anderson · Goal · xG 0.06R. Sandin · Missed · xG 0.06P. Engvall · Missed · xG 0.05D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.05W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.04W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.04M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.03Z. Aston-Reese · On goal · xG 0.03J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.03M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.03M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.03T. Liljegren · On goal · xG 0.02M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.02M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.01M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.01J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.01M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.01C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.01J. Anderson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.01M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.01B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.00M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.00
TOR2 G · 3.9 xG · 49 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsTOR
3.36 G
All situations
2 G3.9
2.35 G
Even strength
1 G2.8
1.01 G
Power play
1 G0.9
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 98 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT41%59%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.25 – 3.83

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsTOR
34
Shots on goal
33
60%
Faceoffs
40%
1/5
Power play
1/3
8
Penalty minutes
12
22
Hits
22
15
Blocked shots
7
15
Giveaways
17
5
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD101+130.48110—24:38
85J. SandersonD011+330.09010—22:40
18T. StützleC022+330.280124520:23
5N. HoldenD000020.03030—19:49
23T. HamonicD011+300.00150—19:27
7B. TkachukL202+240.4530210018:19
12A. DeBrincatR000020.27300—18:02
19D. BathersonR101+230.34200—17:27
57S. PintoC011+110.091003816:47
28C. GirouxR112060.540006716:26
17R. GreigC000+110.050008315:41
61D. BrassardC101+140.503103315:08
21M. JosephR000+210.07400—14:31
26E. BrannstromD011+110.07010—12:21
22N. ZaitsevD000000.00102—12:08
45P. KellyC000000.00210010:05
27D. GambrellC000-100.000005009:30
16A. WatsonL000000.00110—09:24
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31A. Forsberg(W)33312.9393.90+1.9060:00

Season series

TOR leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).