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Senators at Maple Leafs
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
2
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸3
FinalTV SN, CBC·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Ottawa Senators 3-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Justin Holl's goal at 18:05 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 52% to 96%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.0 to 2.5; shots on goal were OTT 28, TOR 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Anton Forsberg stopped 29 of 32 (.906); Ilya Samsonov stopped 26 of 28 (.929), 0.5 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Justin Holl (1 G), 2. William Nylander (1 G), 3. Claude Giroux (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    J. Holl1 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    W. Nylander1 G
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    C. Giroux1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT11107110228
TORTOR01311128332

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    S. Pinto(1)PPG
    C. Giroux (1), J. Sanderson (1)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +10 pts
    1-0
    9:09

2nd period

  1. TOR
    D. Kampf(1)
    J. Muzzin (1), C. Jarnkrok (1)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +23 pts
    1-1
    19:43

3rd period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(2)PPG
    A. Matthews (1), J. Tavares (3)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +29 pts
    1-2
    13:24
  2. OTT
    C. Giroux(1)
    A. DeBrincat (1), T. Chabot (1)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +37 pts
    2-2
    14:49
  3. TOR
    J. Holl(1)
    M. Bunting (1), M. Marner (3)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +44 pts
    2-3
    18:05

Penalties

OTT 4 PIM·TOR 4 PIM

1st

  • 8:22TORMitch Marner · Holdingdrawn by Erik Brannstrom2 min

2nd

  • 7:28OTTTim Stützle · Hookingdrawn by Alexander Kerfoot2 min
  • 15:02TORDavid Kampf · Holdingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min

3rd

  • 12:29OTTParker Kelly · Interferencedrawn by TJ Brodie2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalOTT goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Justin Holl, 3rd 18:05 — TOR 52% → 96%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.20A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.17W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.16N. Aube-Kubel · On goal · xG 0.14A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.13T. Brodie · Missed · xG 0.12A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.12W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.11J. Holl · Goal · xG 0.11C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.10J. Muzzin · Missed · xG 0.10A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.10J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.10M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.09A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.09P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.08W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.08P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.07J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.06W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.06A. Kerfoot · Missed · xG 0.06D. Kampf · Goal · xG 0.06J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.06M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.05C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.05J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.04M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.04A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.04A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.04M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.04M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.03J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.03M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Aston-Reese · On goal · xG 0.03M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.02P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.02A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.02M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.02J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.02M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.02M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.02T. Brodie · Missed · xG 0.02M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.02T. Brodie · Missed · xG 0.01A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.01N. Aube-Kubel · Missed · xG 0.01
TOR3 G · 3.0 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsTOR
2.52 G
All situations
3 G3.0
2.21 G
Even strength
2 G2.6
0.41 G
Power play
1 G0.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT41%59%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.48 – 2.99

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsTOR
28
Shots on goal
32
51%
Faceoffs
49%
1/2
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
53
Hits
37
19
Blocked shots
14
8
Giveaways
14
10
Takeaways
12

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD011-140.20350—26:59
23T. HamonicD000030.06300—20:48
85J. SandersonD011010.03320—20:40
19D. BathersonR000-210.24300—20:13
18T. StützleC000-120.282026320:06
2A. ZubD000-100.00210—19:40
7B. TkachukL000-220.285003818:42
14T. MotteC000020.10430018:14
9J. NorrisC000+120.332205617:14
12A. DeBrincatR011+120.03500—17:10
26E. BrannstromD000010.04010—17:00
28C. GirouxR112+140.532304715:46
57S. PintoC101-130.392006415:28
21M. JosephR000000.00310—14:45
22N. ZaitsevD000000.00600—12:12
16A. WatsonL000010.01400—08:36
47M. KastelicC000000.001106008:30
45P. KellyC000000.00302006:38
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31A. Forsberg(L)32293.9063.000.0058:24

Season series

TOR leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).