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Winnipeg Jets at Edmonton Oilers

FinalTV SNW, TSN3·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Winnipeg Jets 6-3. The Oilers scored first and never trailed. The Oilers led 4-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ryan Nugent-Hopkins's goal at 1:44 of the second period, which took the Oilers' chances from 69% to 84%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 4.8 to 2.4; shots on goal were WPG 28, EDM 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 83% of the time. Connor Hellebuyck stopped 20 of 24 (.833); Stuart Skinner stopped 25 of 28 (.893), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2 G, 2 A), 2. Kailer Yamamoto (2 G, 1 A), 3. Leon Draisaitl (2 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    EDM
    R. Nugent-Hopkins2 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    EDM
    K. Yamamoto2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    EDM
    L. Draisaitl2 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WPGWPG0609313328
EDMEDM11231229633

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. EDM
    wristxG 0.29win prob +9 pts
    0-1
    2:06

2nd period

  1. EDM
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.37win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    1:44
  2. EDM
    backhandxG 0.26win prob +8 pts
    0-3
    9:18
  3. EDM
    snapxG 0.15win prob +4 pts
    0-4
    9:58

3rd period

  1. EDM
    snapxG 0.17
    0-5
    2:26
  2. WPG
    1-5
    6:22
  3. EDM
    snapxG 0.09
    1-6
    7:27
  4. WPG
    snapxG 0.19
    2-6
    11:49
  5. WPG
    3-6
    12:55

Penalties

WPG 20 PIM·EDM 8 PIM

1st

  • 1:19WPGKyle Connor · Trippingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min
  • 5:51WPGKevin Stenlund · High sticking double minordrawn by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins4 min
  • 18:05WPGDylan DeMelo · Trippingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min

2nd

  • 5:54EDMEvan Bouchard · Trippingdrawn by Nino Niederreiter2 min
  • 15:21WPGMark Scheifele · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Stuart Skinner2 min
  • 16:01EDMEvan Bouchard · Trippingdrawn by Morgan Barron2 min

3rd

  • 1:17WPGJosh Morrissey · Cross checkingdrawn by Mattias Ekholm2 min
  • 7:58WPGLogan Stanley · Boardingdrawn by Derek Ryan2 min
  • 7:58WPGLogan Stanley · Roughingdrawn by Devin Shore2 min
  • 7:58EDMDevin Shore · Roughingdrawn by Logan Stanley2 min
  • 11:02EDMWarren Foegele · Trippingdrawn by Neal Pionk2 min
  • 14:51WPGBrenden Dillon · Delaying game smothering puck2 min
  • 19:34WPGSaku Maenalanen · Cross checkingdrawn by Philip Broberg2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
EDM goalWPG goalFinal: EDM 100%

Biggest swing: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 2nd 1:44 — EDM 69% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Nugent-Hopkins · Goal · xG 0.37K. Kostin · Missed · xG 0.36L. Draisaitl · Goal · xG 0.29K. Yamamoto · Goal · xG 0.26Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.22M. Janmark · On goal · xG 0.21L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.19R. Nugent-Hopkins · Goal · xG 0.17R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.16K. Yamamoto · On goal · xG 0.16K. Yamamoto · Goal · xG 0.15R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.15C. McDavid · Missed · xG 0.14Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.13K. Kostin · On goal · xG 0.13K. Yamamoto · On goal · xG 0.11L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.11M. Janmark · On goal · xG 0.10P. Broberg · Missed · xG 0.09L. Draisaitl · Goal · xG 0.09C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.08R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.07L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.07C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.07C. McDavid · Missed · xG 0.07K. Yamamoto · On goal · xG 0.07C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.07C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.07C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.06W. Foegele · Missed · xG 0.06R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.05W. Foegele · On goal · xG 0.05M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.05E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.04Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.04M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.04E. Bouchard · Missed · xG 0.04E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.03E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.03D. Nurse · Missed · xG 0.03D. Shore · Missed · xG 0.03C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.02B. Kulak · On goal · xG 0.02P. Broberg · Missed · xG 0.01D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.01C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.01D. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.00C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.00
EDM6 G · 4.8 xG · 50 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WPGvsEDM
2.43 G
All situations
6 G4.8
1.52 G
Even strength
4 G3.0
0.51 G
Power play
2 G1.5
0.40 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WPG17%83%EDM

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.37 – 4.72

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WPGvsEDM
28
Shots on goal
33
49%
Faceoffs
51%
1/3
Power play
2/9
20
Penalty minutes
8
25
Hits
11
12
Blocked shots
9
11
Giveaways
18
13
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Winnipeg Jets skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
2D. DeMeloD000-310.02222—23:41
44J. MorrisseyD000-420.13102—23:00
5B. DillonD101+120.10432—21:16
4N. PionkD000030.23220—19:16
81K. ConnorL000-210.18012—18:29
55M. ScheifeleC101-120.232025618:25
26B. WheelerR000-110.062105017:52
88N. SchmidtD000+130.13100—17:18
17A. LowryC000-110.151004315:43
62N. NiederreiterR011030.20200—14:38
36M. BarronC000-120.32100014:11
28K. StenlundC000-100.000046713:55
64L. StanleyD000+100.01324—13:02
8S. MaenalanenR022+110.09112—11:51
20K. KuhlmanC000-100.01100011:50
27N. EhlersL000-120.15100—10:48
71A. Jonsson-FjallbyL112+110.21100—10:43
19D. GustafssonC011+130.180002509:40
Winnipeg Jets goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
37C. Hellebuyck(L)24204.8333.61-0.3940:00
33D. Rittich972.7781.16-0.8420:00

Season series

WPG leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).