Jets at Oilers 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Winnipeg Jets

▸2

Edmonton Oilers

FinalTV SN, SN360·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Edmonton Oilers 2-1. The Jets scored first and never trailed. The Jets led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Kyle Connor's goal at 6:55 of the third period, which took the Jets' chances from 48% to 77%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 3.2 to 1.6; shots on goal were WPG 17, EDM 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 77% of the time. Connor Hellebuyck stopped 31 of 32 (.969), 2.2 goals saved above expected; Jack Campbell stopped 15 of 17 (.882). Three stars: 1. Connor Hellebuyck (31 saves, .969), 2. Neal Pionk (1 G, 1 A), 3. Klim Kostin (1 G).

Three stars

★
C. Hellebuyck31 saves, .969
★★
N. Pionk1 G, 1 A
★★★
K. Kostin1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	15	05	17	217
EDM	09	011	112	132

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

N. Pionk(6)PPG
K. Connor (27), P. Dubois (23)
snapxG 0.13win prob +11 pts
1-0
15:44

3rd period

K. Kostin(5)
M. Janmark (5)
wristxG 0.09win prob +27 pts
1-1
4:29
K. Connor(16)
N. Pionk (10), K. Reichel (1)
tip-inxG 0.07win prob +29 pts
2-1
6:55

Penalties

10 PIM·

6 PIM

1st

3:15Connor McDavid · Holdingdrawn by Pierre-Luc Dubois2 min
7:07Neal Pionk · Hookingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min
14:44Cody Ceci · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

2nd

1:50Ville Heinola · Trippingdrawn by Klim Kostin2 min
17:36Karson Kuhlman · Trippingdrawn by Dylan Holloway2 min

3rd

9:33Jesse Puljujarvi · Trippingdrawn by David Gustafsson2 min
17:36Brenden Dillon · High sticking double minordrawn by Kailer Yamamoto4 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: EDM

Biggest swing: Kyle Connor, 3rd 6:55 — WPG 48% → 77%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 3.2 xG · 45 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 1.6 xG · 27 att EDM

1 G · 3.2 xG · 45 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.62 G
All situations: 1 G3.2; 1.11 G
Even strength: 1 G2.4; 0.51 G
Power play: 0 G0.6; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 72 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

23%77%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.57 – 3.10

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

17
Shots on goal: 32; 55%
Faceoffs: 45%; 1/3
Power play: 0/5; 10
Penalty minutes: 6; 23
Hits: 36; 20
Blocked shots: 7; 13
Giveaways: 15; 8
Takeaways: 14

Box score

every player line

Winnipeg Jets skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
4N. PionkD	1	1	2	0	2	0.20	1	2	2	—	23:15
44J. MorrisseyD	0	0	0	0	1	0.12	0	3	0	—	21:10
2D. DeMeloD	0	0	0	0	0	0.03	1	2	0	—	21:09
54D. SambergD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	2	3	0	—	20:38
5B. DillonD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.03	4	0	4	—	20:14
81K. ConnorL	1	1	2	+1	2	0.17	1	0	0	—	19:16
55M. ScheifeleC	0	0	0	0	1	0.33	1	0	0	55	18:14
28K. StenlundC	0	0	0	0	0	0.01	0	2	0	58	18:13
80P. DuboisC	0	1	1	+1	4	0.21	1	0	0	46	17:11
17A. LowryC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	75	16:51
36M. BarronC	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	5	2	0	0	15:43
20K. KuhlmanC	0	0	0	0	1	0.14	0	1	2	0	14:59
14V. HeinolaD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	2	2	—	14:03
71A. Jonsson-FjallbyL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	0	—	13:42
87K. ReichelC	0	1	1	+1	0	0.08	1	0	0	0	11:12
89S. GagnerC	0	0	0	-1	2	0.21	0	0	0	0	10:01
19D. GustafssonC	0	0	0	-1	2	0.02	2	1	0	57	09:54
12J. HarkinsC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	1	0	0	05:51

Winnipeg Jets goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
37C. Hellebuyck(W)	32	31	1	.969	3.17	+2.17	60:00

Season series

WPG leads 2-1

Dec 312@1this game
Mar 33@6Final
Mar 45@7Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Winnipeg Jets at Edmonton Oilers

1st period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score