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Maple Leafs at Capitals
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
Washington Capitals
▸5
FinalTV NBCSWA, SN·Capital One Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Washington Capitals beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-2. The Capitals scored first and never trailed. The Capitals led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Garnet Hathaway's goal at 0:10 of the third period, which took the Capitals' chances from 76% to 91%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.6 to 2.6; shots on goal were TOR 36, WSH 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Ilya Samsonov stopped 23 of 28 (.821), 2.4 goals below expected; Charlie Lindgren stopped 34 of 36 (.944), 1.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Erik Gustafsson (3 G), 2. Sonny Milano (3 A), 3. Charlie Lindgren (34 saves, .944).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WSH
    E. Gustafsson3 G
  2. ★★
    WSH
    S. Milano3 A
  3. ★★★
    WSH
    C. Lindgren34 saves, .944

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR11311409236
WSHWSH2141628528

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. WSH
    E. Gustafsson(1)
    S. Milano (9), J. Carlson (12)
    backhandxG 0.02win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    11:12
  2. TOR
    W. Nylander(18)
    A. Matthews (21), A. Kerfoot (11)
    slapxG 0.05win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    13:12
  3. WSH
    T. van Riemsdyk(4)
    A. Mantha (11), S. Milano (10)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    14:48

2nd period

  1. WSH
    E. Gustafsson(2)
    E. Kuznetsov (20), S. Milano (11)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    2:51
  2. TOR
    A. Matthews(16)
    C. Timmins (6), T. Brodie (4)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    6:25

3rd period

  1. WSH
    G. Hathaway(3)
    N. Jensen (12)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +16 pts
    2-4
    0:10
  2. WSH
    E. Gustafsson(3)
    E. Kuznetsov (21), A. Protas (4)
    snapxG 0.05win prob +6 pts
    2-5
    3:47

Penalties

TOR 4 PIM·WSH 4 PIM

1st

  • 18:33WSHNick Jensen · High stickingdrawn by Denis Malgin2 min

3rd

  • 4:16TORAlexander Kerfoot · Trippingdrawn by Alex Ovechkin2 min
  • 10:36WSHLars Eller · Slashingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min
  • 17:58TORMichael Bunting · Roughingdrawn by Garnet Hathaway2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WSH goalTOR goalFinal: WSH 100%

Biggest swing: Garnet Hathaway, 3rd 0:10 — WSH 76% → 91%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Oshie · On goal · xG 0.24A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.21N. Aube-Kubel · On goal · xG 0.21D. Strome · Missed · xG 0.18M. Johansson · On goal · xG 0.18E. Gustafsson · Goal · xG 0.18M. Johansson · On goal · xG 0.16C. Sheary · Missed · xG 0.16D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.15A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.10T. Oshie · On goal · xG 0.08S. Milano · Missed · xG 0.07G. Hathaway · Goal · xG 0.06E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.06E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.06N. Jensen · On goal · xG 0.06E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.06D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.05E. Gustafsson · Goal · xG 0.05E. Kuznetsov · Missed · xG 0.05N. Jensen · Missed · xG 0.05S. Milano · On goal · xG 0.03E. Gustafsson · On goal · xG 0.02E. Gustafsson · Goal · xG 0.02T. Oshie · On goal · xG 0.02L. Eller · On goal · xG 0.01L. Eller · On goal · xG 0.01T. van Riemsdyk · Goal · xG 0.01J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Irwin · On goal · xG 0.01E. Gustafsson · On goal · xG 0.01T. Oshie · On goal · xG 0.01T. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.00T. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.00
WSH5 G · 2.6 xG · 34 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsWSH
3.62 G
All situations
5 G2.6
3.32 G
Even strength
5 G2.4
0.20 G
Power play
0 G0.1
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR66%34%WSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.48 – 2.53

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsWSH
36
Shots on goal
28
60%
Faceoffs
40%
0/2
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
17
Hits
37
10
Blocked shots
18
9
Giveaways
9
5
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
16M. MarnerR000-220.05110—21:19
78T. BrodieD011+120.14020—20:04
91J. TavaresC000-230.251002519:32
34A. MatthewsC112+140.352008019:23
38R. SandinD000-210.07030—19:21
37T. LiljegrenD000-230.07220—19:12
3J. HollD000-210.08200—19:04
25C. TimminsD011+110.06100—18:41
88W. NylanderR101+150.89100—18:00
55M. GiordanoD000-210.10010—17:32
58M. BuntingL000010.20002—16:42
62D. MalginC000-200.1700010015:30
64D. KampfC000020.180008913:26
47P. EngvallL000030.27000—13:21
15A. KerfootC011+150.47012013:20
12Z. Aston-ReeseL000-210.0360010012:10
29P. HolmbergR000-200.090003310:24
28J. AndersonR000-210.10100—08:59
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35I. Samsonov(L)28235.8212.59-2.4160:00

Season series

TOR leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).