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Capitals at Maple Leafs
NHL

Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Washington Capitals
2
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸3
FinalTV NBCSWA, TVAS·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Washington Capitals 3-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Auston Matthews's goal at 6:55 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 52% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 4.8 to 2.5; shots on goal were WSH 26, TOR 39. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 76% of the time. Charlie Lindgren stopped 36 of 39 (.923), 1.4 goals saved above expected; Ilya Samsonov stopped 24 of 26 (.923), 0.5 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Auston Matthews (1 G), 2. John Tavares (1 G), 3. Nic Dowd (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    J. Tavares1 G
  3. ★★★
    WSH
    N. Dowd1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WSHWSH2110906226
TORTOR1211919339

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(1)PPG
    M. Rielly (2), M. Marner (2)
    tip-inxG 0.21win prob +10 pts
    0-1
    6:40
  2. WSH
    N. Dowd(1)
    E. Gustafsson (2), T. van Riemsdyk (1)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    9:57
  3. WSH
    M. Johansson(1)
    T. Oshie (1), L. Eller (1)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +14 pts
    2-1
    13:52

2nd period

  1. TOR
    C. Jarnkrok(1)
    A. Kerfoot (1), M. Rielly (3)
    tip-inxG 0.15win prob +16 pts
    2-2
    3:53

3rd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(1)
    M. Giordano (1), R. Sandin (1)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +28 pts
    2-3
    6:55

Penalties

WSH 6 PIM·TOR 10 PIM

1st

  • 2:28TORCalle Jarnkrok · Holding the stickdrawn by Nick Jensen2 min
  • 5:19WSHNic Dowd · Interferencedrawn by Auston Matthews2 min
  • 15:23WSHJohn Carlson · Trippingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min

2nd

  • 6:46WSHGarnet Hathaway · Trippingdrawn by Justin Holl2 min
  • 9:58TORJustin Holl · Holdingdrawn by Anthony Mantha2 min

3rd

  • 7:26TORJake Muzzin · Interferencedrawn by Connor Brown2 min
  • 16:15TORNicolas Aube-Kubel · Slashingdrawn by Erik Gustafsson2 min
  • 19:19TORMitch Marner · High stickingdrawn by T.J. Oshie2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalWSH goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Auston Matthews, 3rd 6:55 — TOR 52% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.44W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.30M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.29W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.25M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.24C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.22J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.21W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.18M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.18C. Jarnkrok · Goal · xG 0.15C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.15M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.14D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.13W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.12A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.12M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.11W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.11A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.10J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.10D. Malgin · Missed · xG 0.10A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.09R. Sandin · On goal · xG 0.09J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.09J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.08Z. Aston-Reese · On goal · xG 0.08A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.07M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.06A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.06J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.06W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.06M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.05J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.04A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.04J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.04M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.03T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.03J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.03M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.03M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.03M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.03W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.02T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.02J. Muzzin · Missed · xG 0.02R. Sandin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.01J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.01W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.00W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR3 G · 4.8 xG · 49 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WSHvsTOR
2.52 G
All situations
3 G4.8
1.82 G
Even strength
2 G2.3
0.70 G
Power play
1 G1.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WSH24%76%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.51 – 4.25

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WSHvsTOR
26
Shots on goal
39
46%
Faceoffs
54%
0/5
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
10
33
Hits
37
9
Blocked shots
17
14
Giveaways
15
10
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Washington Capitals skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
74J. CarlsonD000030.19412—25:23
8A. OvechkinL000-140.56400—22:18
92E. KuznetsovC000-100.052003821:35
17D. StromeC000000.001005420:37
77T. OshieR011+110.101005019:16
28C. BrownR000-100.00100—18:39
42M. FehérváryD000000.00510—18:17
9D. OrlovD000-140.10400—18:12
3N. JensenD000-120.09100—17:28
57T. van RiemsdykD011+100.00140—16:08
56E. GustafssonD011+120.03110—14:59
39A. ManthaR000010.23200—14:21
20L. EllerC011+110.021105013:44
90M. JohanssonL101+110.08100—12:05
73C. ShearyL000020.2610010011:54
26N. DowdC101010.263024411:22
59A. ProtasL000020.39000—11:06
21G. HathawayR000020.15012—10:44
Washington Capitals goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
79C. Lindgren(L)39363.9234.39+1.3956:31

Season series

TOR leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).