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Senators at Panthers
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Florida Panthers

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
3
Florida Panthers
▸5
FinalTV BSFL, TVAS2·FLA Live Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Florida Panthers beat the Ottawa Senators 5-3. The Panthers scored first and never trailed. The Panthers led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brandon Montour's goal at 16:28 of the third period, which took the Panthers' chances from 52% to 92%. Expected goals favored the Panthers, 5.9 to 2.6; shots on goal were OTT 26, FLA 58. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 77% of the time. Anton Forsberg stopped 53 of 57 (.930); Spencer Knight stopped 23 of 26 (.885). Three stars: 1. Brandon Montour (1 G, 2 A), 2. Carter Verhaeghe (2 G, 1 A), 3. Anton Forsberg (53 saves, .930).

Three stars

  1. ★
    FLA
    B. Montour1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    FLA
    C. Verhaeghe2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    A. Forsberg53 saves, .930

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT0421319326
FLAFLA226121211558

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. FLA
    C. Verhaeghe(3)
    M. Tkachuk (7), B. Montour (4)
    snapxG 0.05win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    7:59
  2. FLA
    A. Barkov(1)PPG
    M. Tkachuk (8)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +12 pts
    0-2
    11:54

2nd period

  1. OTT
    S. Pinto(6)PPG
    C. Giroux (4), J. Sanderson (4)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +13 pts
    1-2
    0:37
  2. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(6)
    D. Batherson (8), N. Holden (1)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +16 pts
    2-2
    3:23
  3. FLA
    C. Verhaeghe(4)
    B. Montour (5), A. Barkov (6)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +23 pts
    2-3
    19:23

3rd period

  1. OTT
    N. Holden(1)
    T. Motte (5)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +32 pts
    3-3
    11:56
  2. FLA
    B. Montour(3)
    A. Barkov (7), C. Verhaeghe (3)
    slapxG 0.07win prob +41 pts
    3-4
    16:28
  3. FLA
    M. Tkachuk(5)EN
    A. Lundell (3)
    wristxG 0.83win prob +2 pts
    3-5
    19:46

Penalties

OTT 16 PIM·FLA 12 PIM

1st

  • 10:05OTTDerick Brassard · Holdingdrawn by Colin White2 min
  • 14:35FLARadko Gudas · Roughingdrawn by Parker Kelly2 min
  • 14:35OTTParker Kelly · Slashingdrawn by Radko Gudas2 min
  • 14:35OTTParker Kelly · Roughingdrawn by Radko Gudas2 min
  • 19:17FLARadko Gudas · Holdingdrawn by Tyler Motte2 min

2nd

  • 6:39OTTMathieu Joseph · Hookingdrawn by Aleksander Barkov2 min
  • 9:44OTTErik Brannstrom · Trippingdrawn by Colin White2 min
  • 9:44FLAEric Staal · Trippingdrawn by Thomas Chabot2 min
  • 13:22OTTMark Kastelic · Roughingdrawn by Ryan Lomberg2 min
  • 13:22FLARyan Lomberg · Roughingdrawn by Mark Kastelic2 min
  • 20:00OTTMark Kastelic · Roughingdrawn by Josh Mahura2 min
  • 20:00FLAJosh Mahura · Roughingdrawn by Mark Kastelic2 min

3rd

  • 0:48FLAGustav Forsling · Trippingdrawn by Alex DeBrincat2 min
  • 4:34OTTThomas Chabot · Roughingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
FLA goalOTT goalFinal: FLA 100%

Biggest swing: Brandon Montour, 3rd 16:28 — FLA 52% → 92%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.83C. Verhaeghe · Missed · xG 0.59R. Balcers · On goal · xG 0.42S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.26M. Staal · Missed · xG 0.16M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.15S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.15S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.15S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.14B. Montour · Missed · xG 0.14S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.13C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.12J. Mahura · Missed · xG 0.11B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.10S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.10A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.09A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.09S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.09A. Barkov · Missed · xG 0.09R. Balcers · On goal · xG 0.09S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.08P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.08C. Verhaeghe · Missed · xG 0.07S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.07S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.07S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.07B. Montour · Goal · xG 0.07C. Verhaeghe · Goal · xG 0.06C. White · On goal · xG 0.06M. Staal · On goal · xG 0.06M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.06M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.05R. Balcers · On goal · xG 0.05C. Verhaeghe · Goal · xG 0.05M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.05A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.05R. Gudas · On goal · xG 0.05C. White · On goal · xG 0.05E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.05A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.04M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.04B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.04R. Gudas · On goal · xG 0.04A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.04G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.04R. Gudas · On goal · xG 0.04B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.03M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.03A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.03B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.03A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.03M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.03B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.03A. Barkov · Goal · xG 0.03G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.02S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.02M. Kiersted · On goal · xG 0.02M. Kiersted · On goal · xG 0.02R. Gudas · On goal · xG 0.02R. Gudas · Missed · xG 0.02S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.02G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.01R. Gudas · Missed · xG 0.01P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.01P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.01R. Gudas · On goal · xG 0.01R. Gudas · On goal · xG 0.00S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.00C. White · On goal · xG 0.00
FLA5 G · 5.8 xG · 69 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsFLA
2.63 G
All situations
4 G5.9
1.92 G
Even strength
3 G3.7
0.41 G
Power play
1 G0.7
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 101 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT23%77%FLA

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.52 – 4.32

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsFLA
26
Shots on goal
58
44%
Faceoffs
56%
1/2
Power play
1/4
16
Penalty minutes
12
39
Hits
30
15
Blocked shots
13
11
Giveaways
10
12
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD000-200.01322—29:16
12A. DeBrincatR000-140.16110—20:34
18T. StützleC000-300.022102519:29
22N. ZaitsevD000-100.00420—19:25
85J. SandersonD011-130.41010—19:12
23T. HamonicD000-100.00230—18:35
7B. TkachukL101-230.194005018:16
28C. GirouxR011-150.333005817:54
19D. BathersonR011-340.68200—16:58
5N. HoldenD112+110.03110—15:08
26E. BrannstromD000+110.00132—13:50
21M. JosephR000+100.00202—13:48
14T. MotteC011+120.56210013:40
61D. BrassardC000000.003021713:22
57S. PintoC101+110.120005612:05
16A. WatsonL000000.00100—09:39
47M. KastelicC000010.053044708:40
45P. KellyC000-110.0550410008:30
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31A. Forsberg(L)57534.9304.43+0.4357:50

Season series

FLA leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).